1 game a year above, 1 game below theory? Topic

polarsi
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Posted by TBill7 on 11/11/2016 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Can any of you math whizzes solve this one? After failing to cinch the game at the end, and in the 1st OT, I lost a brutal Div II playoff game in the 2nd OT against a team that ran in the WB every play. In his 7 plays my D was set to play the run 92%, 87%, 85%, 92%, 92%, 85%and 87% my D played pass 6 of the 7 plays and let him waltz in for the winning TD. I'm guessing that this defensive proportion was about 500-1 against. Am I close? My posted #s were a little off; the actual Run def % should have read 92, 87, 85, 92, 88, 85, 89.
Were these your overtime settings? Just asking! I went through a good few seasons without amending the custom setting (in error). The odds are just too high for it be a rational explanation.
11/12/2016 1:43 AM
TBill7
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Posted by TBill7 on 11/12/2016 12:43:00 AM (view original):
Yes, it was game: 6086467 The % were: 1st and 10 92% R/def Pass, 2nd and 5 87% R/def Pass, 3rd and 2 85%R/def Pass, 1st and 10 92%R/def Run 2nd and 8 88% R/def Pass, 3rd and 2 85% R/def Pass, 1st and 2 89%R/def Pass. I checked and I had the same def for overtime as I did in the game. It sure made me wonder as well.
Si, I couldn't believe it, either, although I should have wrapped up the game earlier.
11/12/2016 8:20 AM
deaconsoule
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That sounds about right. The game has to be varied in some way. Sometimes the sim goes to major extremes where a loaded team has a bad year or a couple of bad games.
11/16/2016 9:14 PM
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