Round 2 Roster Selection Strategies, 2016 Topic

I am really busy lately. But, I am trying to do the write-up thing. I want to share what I was thinking while building teams for the six themes.

I think three-peat is enough. I should give others a better chance to win Schwarze's WISC. So I will not return to the 2017 WISC.



$65M, Big City, Small Payroll
W65m LA Moneyball: 101W-61L at Dodger Stadium (HR LF/RF:-1/-1 1B:2 2B:-4 3B:-3)

Division Series Runner-Up

My offense strategy in a low cap league is to build a fast team that can score some runs with very few XBHs in a game. As for pitching I like to draft pitchers with low erc# and hr/9#. I usually use about 50% of the budget to get ~1350 innings (~100 innings from scrubs) and the other 50% to get ~5300 PAs.

I believe most useable and affordable pitchers are from the deadball era and the LA teams just do not have any. So I drafted most of my innings from the NY teams and the Chicago teams. I spent ~20M on the position players from the LA teams because I needed to do so. Fortunately there are many cheap position players from LA teams who have good obp, good avg, and excellent speed. As a result I can put up a great team with great speed and good pitching. I only drafted two slow position players for my starting lineup, the catcher Elston Howard '59 and the first base man Vic Saier '16 (speed = 68). I drafted Vic Saier '16 because he has great defense range and high obp#. I selected Dodger Stadium as my home park because it is very friendly to speed hitters with limited power.


My starting lineup is listed below:
Name (Bats) Pos Speed PA/162 HR SB AVG OBP SLG $
Jim Gilliam '59 (S) 3B* 80 681 3 23 .282 .387 .345 4.24M
Luis Polonia '91 (L) CF* 92 662 2 48 .296 .352 .379 3.94M
Chone Figgins '04 (S) LF^ 100 638 5 34 .296 .350 .419 4.25M
Dode Paskert '20 (R) RF* 90 602 5 16 .279 .366 .396 4.04M
Vic Saier '16 (L) 1B* 68 625 7 20 .253 .356 .357 3.91M
Luis Castillo '07 (S) 2B* 77 615 1 19 .301 .362 .359 3.80M
Maury Wills '60 (S) SS* 87 589 0 50 .295 .342 .331 3.90M
Elston Howard '59 (R) C ^ 52 499 18 0 .273 .306 .476 3.11M

Hitting Stats: 5390 PAs, .281 avg, .349 obp, .378 slg, 219 SBs @ 68%, $33.24M
Pitching Stats: 1351 IPs, 2.51 era, .253 oav, 1.17 whip, 0.18 hr/9, $31.72 M

$80 Million: Noodle Arm Catchers & Gopher Ball Pitchers
W80m Nokes Noodle Bar, 90W-72L at SBC Park (HR LF/RF:-3/-3 1B:1 2B:0 3B:2)

World Series Winner

Position players:
This theme encourages players who can hit a lot of homeruns and/or steal a lot of bases. I do not think it is possible to have many good sluggers in an 80m cap team since homeruns are very expensive in SLB. Therefore the better offense strategy for this theme is to build a team with high SBA/100SBO (SB attempt rate) and good SB/100SBA (successful rate of SB attempts). It does not mean I have to give up HR/9#. I still can draft players with the ability to hit homeruns if possible. Good defense range is a must since it reduces the obp of their opponents. So I used the four criteria to filter hitters and then found some great speed hitters.

I did not select any version of Vince Coleman. I selected Max Carey '20 and Willie McGee '90 instead because of their range and speed. The last outfielder I selected was Tim Raines '81, who usually outperforms Vince Coleman in SLB. I was not able to find a fast first base man who has great range. I went with Wally Moon '56 because he has an A+++ range and a great ops#. My catcher is Matt Nokes '87 who has a great HR/100# number and a relatively good CS percentage. My lineup is shown below.
Name (Bats) Pos PA/162 HR SB AVG OBP SLG Fielding $
Bill Joyce '97 (L) 3B* 604 3 33 .304 .441 .433 D/A+ 4.62M
Max Carey '20 (S) CF* 597 1 52 .289 .369 .348 C/A+ 4.57M
Roberto Alomar '89 (S) 2B* 702 7 42 .295 .347 .376 D+/A 4.90M
Jose Reyes '06 (S) SS* 703 19 64 .300 .354 .487 B/D+ 5.53M
Tim Raines '81 (S) LF* 545 5 71 .304 .391 .438 C/C- 4.95M
Willie McGee '90 (S) RF* 665 3 31 .324 .373 .419 D/A+ 5.22M
Wally Moon '56 (L) 1B^ 655 16 12 .298 .390 .469 D/A+ 4.69M
Matt Nokes '87 (L) C * 508 32 2 .289 .345 .536 B+/B+/D- 3.82M

Bench:
I drafted some extreme bench hitters to maximize my chance to win in late game. For example, I drafted Babe Ruth '35 (9 HR/100# and 0.358 obp#) for pinch-hit, and Otis Nixon '86 (79.31 SB/100SBA and 79% SB rate) for pinch-run.

Pitching:
I tried to draft pitchers with low HR/9# and whip. I went with four men rotation, in which Odalis Perez '02 is my ace. The other starters are good but not excellent. I believe bullpen is the key to win this league. I drafted some decent relievers to reduce the impact of late-game drama.

Hitting Stats: 5449 PAs, .294 avg, .371 obp, .432 slg, 383 SBs @ 75.8%, $40.59M
Pitching Stats: 1363 IPs, 2.63 era, .236 oav, 1.07 whip, 0.79 hr/9, $39.40 M


$100M, Four Letter Words (WMJF)
W100m Just Wait For Me, 102W-60L at AT&T Park (HR LF/RF:-3/-3 1B:1 2B:0 3B:2)

World Series Winner

I like to draft ~5500PAs and ~1450 IPs in a 100m cap league. My strategy for this theme was to build a speed team with good defensive range. So I used W and M to get some of my favorite cookies at one time. They are Willie McGee '90, Wally Moon '56, and Willie Wilson '90. These guys are cheap, but they still can score a lot of runs. Most importantly, they have good defensive range. Then I started to try some possible combinations, CG, BJ, and FJ. Finally I chose FJ as my final two letters. F got me Frankie Frish '21 (2B), who is one of my favorite player in sim; J got me Jimmy Johnson '23 (SS), Joe Jackson '16 (OF), John McGraw '95 (3B), Joe McGinity '04 (SP), Walter Johnson '17 (SP), Joe Wood '17 (SP), Josh Johnson '11 (RP), Jake McGee '12 (RP), and Jack McDowell ‘87(RP). FJ got me Jimmie Foxx '28 (C).

This team looks like a typical cookie team. They are able to compete in any open leagues. The lineup is shown below:
Name (Bats) Pos PA/162 HR SB AVG OBP SLG Fielding $
John McGraw '95 (L) 3B* 572 2 61 .369 .459 .448 D+/A- 5.50M
Jimmy Johnston '23 (R) SS^ 729 4 16 .325 .378 .426 C/A+ 6.62M
Wally Moon '56 (L) 1B^ 655 16 12 .298 .390 .469 D/A+ 4.69M
Joe Jackson '16 (L) LF* 694 3 24 .341 .393 .495 B-/C+ 6.91M
Frankie Frisch '21 (S) 2B^ 728 8 49 .341 .384 .485 C/A+ 7.39M
Willie McGee '90 (S) RF* 665 3 31 .324 .373 .419 D/A+ 5.22M
Willie Wilson '82 (S) CF* 621 3 37 .332 .365 .431 B+/A+ 6.40M
Jimmie Foxx '28 (R) C ^ 501 13 3 .328 .416 .548 D/A+/A+ 5.00M

Hitting Stats: 5632 PAs, .326 avg, .386 obp, .454 slg, 262 SBs @ 68.2%, $49.97M
Pitching Stats: 1428.7 IPs, 1.94 era, .207 oav, 0.98 whip, 0.18 hr/9, $50.03 M


$110M, Equally Distributed
W110m 1895-1943, 96W-66L at Palace of the Fans (HR LF/RF:-3/-3 1B:2 2B:4 3B:3)

World Series Runner-Up

I like to draft ~5600PAs and ~1480 IPs in a 110m cap league. My strategy was to build a team that enables deadball pitchers and fast hitters with good defensive range. Then I tried several possible choices and accidentally found 1895-1943 by 2, which got me good starting rotation, great bullpen, great lineup with speed and defense, and great bench. This team is made up of many well-known cookies. It is very competitive in any 110M league.

Position players:
Name (Bats) Pos PA/162 HR SB AVG OBP SLG Fielding $
Jimmy Sheckard '03 (L) CF* 734 9 67 .332 .423 .476 C-/A+ 7.40M
Bill Joyce '97 (L) 3B* 604 3 33 .304 .441 .433 D/A+ 4.62M
Frankie Frisch '21 (S) 2B^ 728 8 49 .341 .384 .485 C/A+ 7.39M
Sam Crawford '09 (L) 1B^ 706 6 30 .314 .366 .452 C/A+ 6.09M
Max Carey '25 (S) RF* 657 5 46 .343 .418 .491 D/A+ 6.51M
Mike Donlin '01 (L) LF* 657 5 33 .340 .409 .475 D/A+ 5.71M
George Davis '99 (S) SS* 501 1 34 .337 .393 .418 B/A 4.93M
Bill Dickey '33 (L) C * 575 14 3 .318 .381 .490 A-/A/A 5.37M

Starters:
Pitcher G IP/162 ERA OAV WHIP K/9 BB/9 $
Christy Mathewson '05 (R) 43 359.0 1.28 .205 0.93 5.47 1.70 13.92M
Eddie Cicotte '17 (R) 49 365.0 1.53 .203 0.91 3.90 1.82 13.68M
Eddie Plank '15 (L) 42 283.0 2.08 .218 0.99 4.94 1.81 11.70M


Bullpen:
Pitcher G IP/162 ERA OAV WHIP K/9 BB/9 $
Ed Doheny '95 (L) 3 32.0 6.66 .325 2.18 3.16 6.66 230K
Art Nehf '19 (L) 13 119.0 1.50 .196 0.87 2.12 1.68 4.87M
Early Wynn '41 (R) 5 43.0 1.58 .226 1.13 3.38 2.25 1.27M
Ed Reulbach '13 (R) 15 120.0 2.05 .202 1.01 3.76 2.78 3.72M
Al Grabowski '29 (L) 6 54.0 2.52 .227 1.04 3.96 1.44 2.15M
Nick Maddox '07 (R) 6 57.0 0.83 .178 0.83 6.33 2.17 2.39M
Bill Harris '31 (R) 4 33.0 0.87 .194 0.97 2.90 2.61 1.28M
Johnny Niggeling '43 (R) 6 54.0 0.88 .153 0.86 4.24 3.00 2.69M

Hitting Stats: 5712 PAs, .326 avg, .399 obp, .460 slg, 343 SBs @ 61.80%, $52.05M
Pitching Stats: 1519 IPs, 1.68 era, .208 oav, 0.97 whip, 0.09 hr/9, $57.91 M
1/30/2017 1:28 AM (edited)
Great stuff WaitNSee! And congrats on being the BEST of the BEST.
1/28/2017 7:20 PM
Thanks on the write up WaitnSee. And congrats!
1/29/2017 5:33 AM
$120M, 12x12 Draft
W120m Albatrosses around George Kelly, 92W-70L at Comerica Park (HR LF/RF:-2/-2 1B:1 2B:-2 3B:2)

World Series Winner

Before player nomination:
To be honest, I had several infamous albatrosses on my candidate list for player nomination, including Adonis Terry. I decided not to nominate any of them because a defending champion should not adopt such an extreme approach. I believe there are a lot of ways to win in this theme. Then I came up with an idea, that is, to use my nominated player to get good infielders, as it is hard to get them from others' nominated players. Eventually I nominated George Kelly (1B). The reason is quite simple: I wanted Frankie Frisch '21 (2B) and Dave Bancroft '21 (SS) in my team. Their gloves should help my pitching.

After player nomination:
I have studied all versions of the 12 nominated players, and put my analytical results on an Excel file. I use Adonis Terry as an example to illustrate my data format, as follows:
Historical draft order (round.order) Player Team IP/162 OAV# BB/9# ERC# ERA+ HR/9# $/IP IP/G SALARY Positions of quality teammates
0 Terry, Adonis 1888 Brooklyn Bridegrooms 226 0.21 3.52 2.16 151 0.15 36,153 8.48 $8,170,604 OF SP
Terry, Adonis 1892 Pittsburgh Pirates 264 0.212 3.96 2.64 128 0.17 31,083 7.78 $8,206,051 OF SP
2.2 Terry, Adonis 1892 Pittsburgh Pirates 255 0.212 3.86 2.6 131 0.17 31,387 8 $8,003,874
2.5 Terry, Adonis 1892 Baltimore Orioles (<1900) 264 0.212 3.96 2.64 128 0.17 31,085 7.78 $8,206,460 OF
2.4 Terry, Adonis 1889 Brooklyn Bridegrooms 386 0.225 3.38 2.69 117 0.24 35,167 7.95 $13,574,783 OF
Terry, Adonis 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms 465 0.252 3.08 3.19 121 0 34,993 8.04 $16,271,995 OF 1B
Terry, Adonis 1886 Brooklyn Grays 341 0.244 3.76 3.42 111 0.05 31,853 8.48 $10,862,060 x
10.1 Terry, Adonis 1895 Chicago Colts 388 0.26 3.73 3.72 100 0.16 25,471 8.19 $9,882,907 OF 3B 1B
4.1 Terry, Adonis 1891 Brooklyn Bridegrooms 227 0.266 3.57 4.01 79 0.34 22,574 7.76 $5,124,352 C
3.1 Terry, Adonis 1893 Pittsburgh Pirates 214 0.249 4.77 4.04 105 0.37 24,282 6.54 $5,196,426 OF OF SS
6.1 Terry, Adonis 1896 Chicago Colts 299 0.276 3.4 4.11 98 0.34 22,636 7.86 $6,768,254 SS OF 3B
2.3 Terry, Adonis 1894 Pittsburgh Pirates 202 0.308 6.56 7.05 87 0.8 18,600 6.83 $3,757,353 OF OF 1B
1.1 Terry, Adonis 1894 Chicago Colts 202 0.308 6.56 7.05 87 0.8 18,597 6.83 $3,756,729 SS 1B OF OF OF
Average: 287 $8,290,911
Historical draft order Player Team B PA/162 HR AVG# OBP# SLG# SPD SALARY C 1B 2B 3B SS OF Positions of quality teammates
2.1 Terry, Adonis 1887 Brooklyn Dodgers R 445 3 0.29 0.3 0.4 69 $2,362,933 D-/D- D/C SS
1.2 Terry, Adonis 1885 Brooklyn Grays R 397 1 0.18 0.2 0.2 70 $1,213,091 D-/D- -- D/C+ 1B

Observations and plan before Round 1:
  • In my league, people had to roster two awful players, Adonis Terry and Brickyard Kennedy. I did not worry about it though. My strategy was to accept the fact that I had to draft an extremely awful version of Terry or Kennedy. By doing so I could roster great and affordable pitchers when people were pursuing bad pitchers (Kennedy it is). Then I could get a relatively good version of the other bad choice (Terry) in the next round. My analytical result told me that, good choices are few while considering the salary cap and the dead weight we have to carry. For example, Maddux '94 and Maddux ’95 should not be considered as good choices in this league. They are too expensive.
  • My analytical results told me that, all versions of Ed Walsh are good choices. The best strategy was to get Walsh in late rounds.
  • The sum of the average IPs from the six nominated pitchers is more than 1,200. This means I had to control the total number of IPs carefully.
  • Mordecai Brown '06 should be the best choice for my team, as I could access to a quality 3B and two great pitchers.

Round 1: Mordecai Brown '06 was available. So I drafted him and then got his teammate Jack Pfiester '06. This means I rostered two aces in round 1, and only needed to take my last starter with my Walsh pick. What I needed to do was to collect great relievers and position players after Round 1.
Round 2: All relatively good versions of Kennedy were gone. I drafted Terry '94 as I planned. Terry '94 was a good choice because of his teammate Bill Dahlen '94 (SS & 3B).
Round 3: I selected Wood '15 as my reliever in this round. Then I got his teammate Speaker '15 (CF) who has great speed, defensive range, avg# and obp#.
Round 4: Drafted Kennedy '96 to minimize his damage.
Round 5: Drafted Schmidt '96 to control my total number of drafted innings. I did not need any starter even though the best Schmidt was still available.
Round 6: Drafted Varitek '01 to get Pedro Martinez '01 as my major reliever.
Round 7: Drafted Donlin '01 (RF) for his bat and glove.
Round 8: Drafted Justice '00 (platooning LF) to get his teammate Posada '00 (C), who has a good arm rating and a great ops# number.
Round 9: Drafted Laporte '07 to get a great reliever Tom L. Hughes '07.
Round 10: Drafted Griffin '89 to get a reliever Jay Howell '89.
Round 11: Got Ed Walsh '12 by default. I needed him to eat a lot of innings.

Hitting Stats: 6930 PAs, .307 avg, .379 obp, .459 slg, 233 SBs @ 57.0%, $58.92M
Pitching Stats: 2034 IPs, 2.72 era, .239 oav, 1.23 whip, 0.23 hr/9, $60.86 M
2/1/2017 10:55 PM (edited)
Very impressive analysis/strategy especially since this was your first experience in this type of draft.
1/29/2017 12:00 PM
$160M, Decreasing Salary Draft
W160m Triple Crackers, 104W-58L at Comerica Park (HR LF/RF:-2/-2 1B:1 2B:-2 3B:2)

Division Series Runner-Up

My analysis before the draft:
  • The best starters in this cap are very few. Only people who have top 10 draft picks can have the best pitchers. They will have advantages in the playoffs.
  • There are 108 distinct pitchers whose ERC# <= 2.2 and IP/162 >=180. This means everyone can have quality starters.
  • The best hitters are usually lefty. So I need to draft one or two quality lefty starters
  • There are few great position players (my definition: high avg# (> .35), good speed (>75), and great defense). I should try to get them in early rounds.
  • There are numerous good position players.
  • There are 288 distinct pitchers whose ERC# are lower than 1.8. This means everyone can get more than 11 great pitchers in this league. So I do not need to dive deep in early rounds to get a good reliever.
  • There are 77 catchers whose PAs <=500 and OPS# >=0.9 Platooning at catcher should be a good idea.
  • It is almost impossible to create a 160M+ team in this theme.

I did not have a plan before the draft. I simply followed my analytical results to draft players. I decided to create a speed team with lots of triples after I obtained 1911 Ty Cobb and 1977 Rod Carew. With my analytical results I made very few mistakes (maybe only one?) in drafting.

Hitting Stats: 6244PAs, .348 avg, .410 obp, .538 slg, 278 SBs @ 67.0%, $81.55M
Pitching Stats: 1690 IPs, 1.88 era, .202 oav, 0.96 whip, 0.27 hr/9, $66.02 M
1/30/2017 3:02 AM (edited)
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