Posted by MikeT23 on 12/6/2016 1:11:00 PM (view original):
Anyway, benis, my concern has an easy fix.
1) Recruits reject AP if they're the sort that won't attend a low level D1 like Elon if UNC shows a passing interest.
2) Teams have to give AP to a recruit 4 cycles before the session is up or he won't sign with them. 1 measly AP from UNC would open the door for them to snatch him away.
And once again, you keep using overly exaggerated examples to prove your point. It's not 1AP. Not even close. But whatever you want to say to support your position.
You've also ignored my entire post about how teams getting EE money in the 2nd session is WORSE for teams like Elon.
And since you have no clue how the signing process works in 3.0 (and I doubt you've even bothered to find out), I'll be a nice guy and explain it to you. Here's why I said it's once out of 10,000. When a recruit has a qualifying offer (scholly offer, opening available and H or VH interest) and is within the signing preference threshold (Early, Late, etc) there is a chance the recruit will sign that cycle. This chance of signing increases every cycle after that. So in the 2nd session, if Elon is on the recruit that is late signing preference there is a chance he'll sign that very first cycle. Based upon my experience and what others have posted, it seems like a Late preference will sign about 50% of the time in the first cycle (if anyone wants to dispute this, then please do but I think this number is pretty close for the sake of argument). So there are 8 cycles in the 2nd session I believe. That means for 7 cycles the chance of the recruit signing is increasing every cycle. Now, we don't know how much this % increases each cycle but let's use 5% which I think is pretty fair. Let's do the math now.
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Chance DOES NOT sign |
Cycle |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
% chance DOES NOT sign |
0.5 |
0.45 |
0.4 |
0.35 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.2 |
0.05% |
Based upon these numbers, which I think are very fair and definitely not just pulled out of my ***, there is a 0.05% chance the recruit still doesn't sign before that very last cycle. That is 1 out of 2,000. So yeah, I was really far off. This is a pretty likely event where a recruit doesn't sign until the last cycle AND it happens to have a team like UNC coming in and dropping max effort at the same time.