HOF predictions Topic

dahsdebater
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Kind of ironic that after Mike's big stand about how he doesn't care about the voters' standards and only cares about what he thinks makes you HOF-worthy is now the one making an argument about HOF-worthiness based on voting trends. In the same thread. In the same week.
12/18/2016 8:52 PM
MikeT23
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Really? Have you ever argued with BL? After a while, you just post anything so he can dispute it.

When he says a player who may or may not get in is comparable to a sure-fire first ballot player, you're just argue nonsense at that point.
12/19/2016 7:08 AM
bad_luck
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/19/2016 7:08:00 AM (view original):
Really? Have you ever argued with BL? After a while, you just post anything so he can dispute it.

When he says a player who may or may not get in is comparable to a sure-fire first ballot player, you're just argue nonsense at that point.
I know for a fact that I'm not the first person to compare Raines to Gwynn.

Also, you act like Jeter was Babe Ruth. If he played in Cincinnati, he'd be Barry Larkin. If he played in Detroit, he'd be Alan Trammell.

Well, maybe not Trammell, since Trammell was actually good at defense.
12/19/2016 11:50 AM
wylie715
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Posted by bad_luck on 12/18/2016 10:28:00 AM (view original):
No one is trying to force a number of players per position. The argument is that Jeter and Raines are on the same tier.

Under the current standard they both belong. If we tighten that standard, they're both out.
you mean by YOUR standard, which is not the same as someone else's standard.
12/19/2016 12:00 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by wylie715 on 12/19/2016 12:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/18/2016 10:28:00 AM (view original):
No one is trying to force a number of players per position. The argument is that Jeter and Raines are on the same tier.

Under the current standard they both belong. If we tighten that standard, they're both out.
you mean by YOUR standard, which is not the same as someone else's standard.
Nope. I'm not referring to my standard or your standard or Mike's standard.

If you look at the Hall of fame as a whole (or better, position by position), you see that there is a standard. Players above a certain line (absent PED issues) are all in. Players below that line are, with a few exceptions, out.
12/19/2016 12:18 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by bad_luck on 12/19/2016 11:50:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/19/2016 7:08:00 AM (view original):
Really? Have you ever argued with BL? After a while, you just post anything so he can dispute it.

When he says a player who may or may not get in is comparable to a sure-fire first ballot player, you're just argue nonsense at that point.
I know for a fact that I'm not the first person to compare Raines to Gwynn.

Also, you act like Jeter was Babe Ruth. If he played in Cincinnati, he'd be Barry Larkin. If he played in Detroit, he'd be Alan Trammell.

Well, maybe not Trammell, since Trammell was actually good at defense.
If a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his *** when he jumped.

Jeter played in NY. He played in a lot of post-season games. Those are undeniable facts. Comparing him to Raines is silliness at it's silliest.
12/19/2016 12:39 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/19/2016 12:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/19/2016 11:50:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/19/2016 7:08:00 AM (view original):
Really? Have you ever argued with BL? After a while, you just post anything so he can dispute it.

When he says a player who may or may not get in is comparable to a sure-fire first ballot player, you're just argue nonsense at that point.
I know for a fact that I'm not the first person to compare Raines to Gwynn.

Also, you act like Jeter was Babe Ruth. If he played in Cincinnati, he'd be Barry Larkin. If he played in Detroit, he'd be Alan Trammell.

Well, maybe not Trammell, since Trammell was actually good at defense.
If a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his *** when he jumped.

Jeter played in NY. He played in a lot of post-season games. Those are undeniable facts. Comparing him to Raines is silliness at it's silliest.
Yes, he played in NY, so that ups his visibility and inflates the perception of his production.

I can understand how someone who has a NY-centric view of MLB might bristle at the reasonable suggestion that the value of Jeter's on field production was about the same as Raines'.
12/19/2016 12:51 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by tecwrg on 12/18/2016 7:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/18/2016 7:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/18/2016 6:45:00 PM (view original):
The formatting of that didn't work out. Raines' best years offensively were better as a whole than Jeter's best offensive years.
Don Mattingly's best years offensively were better than Raines's best years.

By your logic, that makes Mattingly a HOFer.

#DonnyBaseballHOF
Jesus. Even Bernie Williams' 5 best OPS+ years were better than Raines's 5 best years. And he played CF compared to Raines COF.

#BernieHOF
BERNIE WILLIAMS FOR THE HALL OF FAME, ************!!!!!
12/19/2016 1:08 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 12/19/2016 1:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/18/2016 7:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 12/18/2016 7:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 12/18/2016 6:45:00 PM (view original):
The formatting of that didn't work out. Raines' best years offensively were better as a whole than Jeter's best offensive years.
Don Mattingly's best years offensively were better than Raines's best years.

By your logic, that makes Mattingly a HOFer.

#DonnyBaseballHOF
Jesus. Even Bernie Williams' 5 best OPS+ years were better than Raines's 5 best years. And he played CF compared to Raines COF.

#BernieHOF
BERNIE WILLIAMS FOR THE HALL OF FAME, ************!!!!!
Looking at Williams is actually a great illustration for how Raines is about as valuable as Jeter.

Raines and Williams (and Jeter) are pretty comparable in the batter's box. Jeter and Raines played more the Williams, but the rate stats aren't far off:

Williams: 297/381/477 125 OPS+ (303 FG batting runs above replacement)
Jeter: 310/377/440 115 OPS+ (309 FG batting runs above replacement)
Raines 294/385/425 123 OPS+ (308 FG batting runs above replacement)

When you consider position (but not actual defensive ability), Jeter gets a huge bump in value. Williams gets a small bump in value. Raines loses value.

But because Jeter and Williams played their positions so poorly, they cost their teams a lot of runs, and they lose a lot of that value.

FG defensive runs:

Jeter: -129 +117 (positional adjustment) = -30
Williams -154 +11 = -143
Raines -10 + -99 = -109

So Jeter takes the lead because his position was so valuable, even considering his bad glove work.

But we haven't added baserunning yet.

Raines was worth over 100 runs above replacement on the bases.
Jeter 24
Williams -16

When you combine all three, the order is Jeter, Raines, Williams, but the difference between 1 & 2 is small and the difference between 2 & 3 is large.

Williams was very good but Raines and Jeter are clear hall of famers.
12/19/2016 1:39 PM
MikeT23
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No, the big difference is Williams won't make the HOF, Raines still might and Jeter is a shoo-in. All your rate stat, positional adjustment compared to WcPURLH88909 nonsense is meaningless. One walks in thru the front door, the other tries sneak in the thru the back and the last one buys a ticket.
12/19/2016 1:51 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/19/2016 1:51:00 PM (view original):
No, the big difference is Williams won't make the HOF, Raines still might and Jeter is a shoo-in. All your rate stat, positional adjustment compared to WcPURLH88909 nonsense is meaningless. One walks in thru the front door, the other tries sneak in the thru the back and the last one buys a ticket.
Look at mike, finding a way to be way more concise than me while saying the same thing. Good job!

Raines and Jeter will be hall of famers.

Williams never will.
12/19/2016 2:01 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by tecwrg on 12/18/2016 8:15:00 AM (view original):
Exactly. It would be as if people were complaining that the Pro Football HOF needs more punters because there are too many QBs.
I didn't get this from dahs argument at all. He's not saying "The HOF needs more OFers!"

He's saying players should be judged by how they compare to those at their position. If a guy is the 100th best hitter ever, that's may not be HOF worthy in a vacuum. But if he played 2B and is the 4th best hitting 2B of all time, then he should probably be in the HOF.
12/19/2016 2:59 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by bad_luck on 12/19/2016 2:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/19/2016 1:51:00 PM (view original):
No, the big difference is Williams won't make the HOF, Raines still might and Jeter is a shoo-in. All your rate stat, positional adjustment compared to WcPURLH88909 nonsense is meaningless. One walks in thru the front door, the other tries sneak in the thru the back and the last one buys a ticket.
Look at mike, finding a way to be way more concise than me while saying the same thing. Good job!

Raines and Jeter will be hall of famers.

Williams never will.
I wouldn't plan that trip to Cooperstown for Raines' induction just yet.
12/19/2016 3:36 PM
bad_luck
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Raines only missed by about 20 votes last year. Should be in without a problem this year.
12/19/2016 3:43 PM
edsortails
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I'm pretty sure that until Mort Cooper gets in the rest of the Hall is senseless.
12/19/2016 3:48 PM
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