It's funny when somebody posts in a league forum "My '27 Ruth is only hitting .220 after 10 games. SIM sucks!". Then you look at their team and several guys are hitting over .400.

The fact that I am nuts has nothing to do with your theory. For that discussion we probably need a fresh thread...

I once dealt 9 consecutive tie hands in mini baccarat. That is mathematically more improbable than a 14 game winning streak...

The probability of a .300 hitter hitting .270 against better pitching than they faced in real life (by a lot) is pretty good. If you want leagues where your guys overperform their real life numbers, instead of underperform them, you will have better luck playing low cap leagues. That's not to say it doesn't happen in higher caps, but the chances are greater the lower you go. 30 points really isn't that much when you factor that in.

The point being, if it's only your third season and you've stumbled onto what you see as a contradiction, you likely aren't seeing the full picture yet.

Posted by bayridgeguy on 1/3/2017 8:50:00 PM (view original):
I said versus performance history.

Ah, I see that. Well, 600 PAs is a small sample size compared to tens of thousands if not more.

At this point I'm just going to say agree to disagree. Modern hitters won't hit homeruns anywhere because they normalize terribly and everyone uses deadball pitchers. But, if you disagree, so be it.

Yeah, the problem with the power outage in open leagues is because everyone pitches to suppress home runs. Home run hitters do fine in theme leagues where you can't run deadball pitching staffs. The fact that deadball pitchers are much better at not giving up HR than modern hitters are at hitting them has perplexed many newbies, but is just a fact of the SIM.

Ozamati, everyone uses deadball, right, but you are missing a fact i noted, he nonetheless averages 22 homers per season

Guys, bayridge has almost FOUR seasons of data here. Clearly, there is something fishy going on around here. It seems obvious WIS has added a "momentum" factor to the algorithm that nobody else has figured out.

There are a LOT of games simmed every day on this site. There are considerably more games simmed here every year than there have been in the entirety of MLB history. Weird things are going to happen when given that kind of quantity. I have no idea the actual number, but at what seems a very low estimate, if there are 30 leagues going, 24 teams a league (making 12 games), playing 3 games a day, that makes 1080 games DAILY. At that low estimate, something with a 0.1% chance of happening is going to happen DAILY. Something with a 0.0585% chance as mentioned above will happen almost 19 times every month.

Keep in mind, in determining the likelihood of a winning streak in any league, the probability of each game is not 50/50. There's usually at least one unreasonably bad team in each league (there's one in the division of the linked example above). These games are almost automatic wins for a good team. Even then, a 14 game winning streak is very good and quite unusual, but hardly unheard of. Now, if you were to see that happen 20 times during a season, I would say you have a case, but a few isolated examples aren't going to convince anyone - they are actually to be expected as part of random chance.

In the end, you can choose to believe whatever you want about how the game works, but do so considering this: Most of the people posting in this thread that disagree with you have played at least 100 TIMES as many games as you have and have winning records. They have been students of how to play the game for a decade or more. They have absolutely nothing to gain by trying to deceive you. Is their combined experience really less influential to you than a few hand-picked counterexamples?

14 game winning streaks have more to do with the opposing teams talent level than momentum. A 57-40 team, is pretty good. Chances of them pulling off a 14 game win streak isn't unbelievable or even unlikely. You also say 4 out of 24 teams won 9 out of the last 10. Who are they playing? The better teams in the league or the worst teams in the league? Streaks of any kind can be deceiving if in the middle of that streak you squeak out a 1 run win in the bottom of the 11th or you are just simply facing weaker teams, weaker pitchers, weaker hitters or other things that you don't fully investigate and take into consideration..