Posted by bayridgeguy on 2/16/2017 10:23:00 PM (view original):
My team started 17-18, and then won 21 out of 22. I'm sorry, this is not possible without momentum. I think this pretty much closes this topic. The idea that I'm going to see unbelievable unlikely wild swings every season I play, and it be attributed solely to probability is closed-minded.
Don't tell me a team governed solely by probability can go 17-18 then 22-1, just don't. DO NOT.
In other words, you want to believe what you have already decided to be true based upon a few isolated examples and don't want to listen to rational arguments and supporting evidence. How in the world is anyone supposed to have a conversation about this with you if you have already decided?
This is why discussions on the internet turn into shouting matches, little progress is made, and everyone leaves upset.
To make an argument for momentum that people will listen to, find examples from dozens of owners over several different types of leagues, give proof that all other conditions are similar (opponent strength, fatigue levels, matchups, etc.), and present us numbers with that show a consistent result over time. Isolated incidents among the thousands of games played on this site every week hold very little weight. Your opinion goes against the explicit words of those that run this engine as well as the experience of the vast majority of the veterans on this site who have played for at least 10x as long as you have. The burden of proof lies upon you.