Posted by dahsdebater on 1/23/2017 1:43:00 PM (view original):
A steal is never as valuable as a home run. Period. It's simple math. A guy who steals a base increases his chances to score, but he was already on base and had more than a 0% chance of scoring to start with, and after he steals he still doesn't have a 100% chance of scoring unless he stole home. So the run value of a stolen base is definitely less than 1. A guy who hits a home run scores. Anybody who was already on base scores. Of course they also didn't start with a 0% chance of scoring, but the key is that they do finish with 100% chance. So a home run is worth a bare minimum of 1 run and on average quite a bit more than that.

According to The Book, tabulated based on a great deal of historical data, on average a HR is worth 1.397 runs and a steal is worth 0.175 (a CS costs the team 0.467 runs). So basically, to produce the same run value as a HR, you have to steal about 8 bases without getting caught.

Let's pretend. We'll pretend Raine's 808 career stolen bases now become 101 home runs. For the sake of argument, we'll say those HRs came by converting 67 singles and 34 walks into HRs (67 to 34 is roughly the ratio of hits to walks that Raines had in his career).

His new numbers now become:

2639 hits
271 homeruns
.296 AVG
.385 OBP (this remains unchanged)
.461 SLG
.846 OPS

Does he still look like a HOFer, or just an above average left fielder.

"Run values" aside, last I checked, speed is one of the 5 tools used to evaluate a player. Not everyone has power. I guy who gets on base and steals bases is valuable, especially if he does it at a high level and efficiency, like Raines did. Should we disqualify them from the hall because they didn't hit homers?

Posted by tecwrg on 1/23/2017 2:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 1/23/2017 1:43:00 PM (view original):
A steal is never as valuable as a home run. Period. It's simple math. A guy who steals a base increases his chances to score, but he was already on base and had more than a 0% chance of scoring to start with, and after he steals he still doesn't have a 100% chance of scoring unless he stole home. So the run value of a stolen base is definitely less than 1. A guy who hits a home run scores. Anybody who was already on base scores. Of course they also didn't start with a 0% chance of scoring, but the key is that they do finish with 100% chance. So a home run is worth a bare minimum of 1 run and on average quite a bit more than that.

According to The Book, tabulated based on a great deal of historical data, on average a HR is worth 1.397 runs and a steal is worth 0.175 (a CS costs the team 0.467 runs). So basically, to produce the same run value as a HR, you have to steal about 8 bases without getting caught.

Let's pretend. We'll pretend Raine's 808 career stolen bases now become 101 home runs. For the sake of argument, we'll say those HRs came by converting 67 singles and 34 walks into HRs (67 to 34 is roughly the ratio of hits to walks that Raines had in his career).

His new numbers now become:

2639 hits
271 homeruns
.296 AVG
.385 OBP (this remains unchanged)
.461 SLG
.846 OPS

Does he still look like a HOFer, or just an above average left fielder.

This is dumb. You'd need to add HR on top of the value he actually provided with the singles and walks, not take away a chunk of singles and walks.

His actual career is roughly equal to Gwynn's in terms of value.

Instead of a convoluted conversion, we should focus on what actually happened.

Posted by bad_luck on 1/23/2017 2:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 1/23/2017 2:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 1/23/2017 1:43:00 PM (view original):
A steal is never as valuable as a home run. Period. It's simple math. A guy who steals a base increases his chances to score, but he was already on base and had more than a 0% chance of scoring to start with, and after he steals he still doesn't have a 100% chance of scoring unless he stole home. So the run value of a stolen base is definitely less than 1. A guy who hits a home run scores. Anybody who was already on base scores. Of course they also didn't start with a 0% chance of scoring, but the key is that they do finish with 100% chance. So a home run is worth a bare minimum of 1 run and on average quite a bit more than that.

According to The Book, tabulated based on a great deal of historical data, on average a HR is worth 1.397 runs and a steal is worth 0.175 (a CS costs the team 0.467 runs). So basically, to produce the same run value as a HR, you have to steal about 8 bases without getting caught.

Let's pretend. We'll pretend Raine's 808 career stolen bases now become 101 home runs. For the sake of argument, we'll say those HRs came by converting 67 singles and 34 walks into HRs (67 to 34 is roughly the ratio of hits to walks that Raines had in his career).

His new numbers now become:

2639 hits
271 homeruns
.296 AVG
.385 OBP (this remains unchanged)
.461 SLG
.846 OPS

Does he still look like a HOFer, or just an above average left fielder.

This is dumb. You'd need to add HR on top of the value he actually provided with the singles and walks, not take away a chunk of singles and walks.

His actual career is roughly equal to Gwynn's in terms of value.

Instead of a convoluted conversion, we should focus on what actually happened.

?

Are you saying taking away his 808 stolen bases and replacing them with 101 additional PA's that are all home runs makes sense?

Who's the dumb one here?

You're taking away value twice, once by removing the stolen bases (and adding it back with HR) then again by removing 101 singles and walks.

So take away the 146 CS and call it even.

I'm not interested in an event conversion. He's a Hall of Famer. His career merits it.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/23/2017 2:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/23/2017 2:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 1/23/2017 2:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 1/23/2017 1:43:00 PM (view original):
A steal is never as valuable as a home run. Period. It's simple math. A guy who steals a base increases his chances to score, but he was already on base and had more than a 0% chance of scoring to start with, and after he steals he still doesn't have a 100% chance of scoring unless he stole home. So the run value of a stolen base is definitely less than 1. A guy who hits a home run scores. Anybody who was already on base scores. Of course they also didn't start with a 0% chance of scoring, but the key is that they do finish with 100% chance. So a home run is worth a bare minimum of 1 run and on average quite a bit more than that.

According to The Book, tabulated based on a great deal of historical data, on average a HR is worth 1.397 runs and a steal is worth 0.175 (a CS costs the team 0.467 runs). So basically, to produce the same run value as a HR, you have to steal about 8 bases without getting caught.

Let's pretend. We'll pretend Raine's 808 career stolen bases now become 101 home runs. For the sake of argument, we'll say those HRs came by converting 67 singles and 34 walks into HRs (67 to 34 is roughly the ratio of hits to walks that Raines had in his career).

His new numbers now become:

2639 hits
271 homeruns
.296 AVG
.385 OBP (this remains unchanged)
.461 SLG
.846 OPS

Does he still look like a HOFer, or just an above average left fielder.

This is dumb. You'd need to add HR on top of the value he actually provided with the singles and walks, not take away a chunk of singles and walks.

His actual career is roughly equal to Gwynn's in terms of value.

Instead of a convoluted conversion, we should focus on what actually happened.

?

Are you saying taking away his 808 stolen bases and replacing them with 101 additional PA's that are all home runs makes sense?

Who's the dumb one here?

Taking away the steals and replacing them with HRs makes more sense than subtracting twice. That's inane.

Like I said on the last page, my perspective is that the HOF isn't exclusively about value. The fact that Raines is the 2nd-best player in the last 100 years at arguably the most exciting aspect of the game of baseball makes him a HOFer even if somebody like Thome might be more valuable. (I would probably leave Thome out of the HOF if it were up to me, although I suspect the voters will feel differently).

You can't take away the steals in a vacuum. He likely got on base via a hit or walk. That has to be accounted for. You can't just give him 101 extra ABs and call them HRs.

Posted by bad_luck on 1/23/2017 2:59:00 PM (view original):
I'm not interested in an event conversion. He's a Hall of Famer. His career merits it.

If you don't want to participate in the discussion, then don't insert yourself into it.

Dumbass.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/23/2017 3:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/23/2017 2:59:00 PM (view original):
I'm not interested in an event conversion. He's a Hall of Famer. His career merits it.

If you don't want to participate in the discussion, then don't insert yourself into it.

Dumbass.

I was just participating to remind you that you're stupid.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/23/2017 3:27:00 PM (view original):
You can't take away the steals in a vacuum. He likely got on base via a hit or walk. That has to be accounted for. You can't just give him 101 extra ABs and call them HRs.

And you can't double subtract, which is why this is a stupid idea.

I love seeing people nerd out over baseball stats.

A steal is not worth a home run, but could easily be as valuable. And I am not a rah rah Raines guy.

I misread your initial statement, tec. I actually am on board with what you did looking back at it.