Looks like a combination of need power late and a VL rating. Greisinger has a much better VL rating than Bailes and while Leon and Baerga have similar VL Leon has higher Power. It also looks lie the sim was on the nose PH for Bailes as he has better C/P and VL Leon was arguable but it isn't really a bad move even if you don't agree with it.. It also looks like the exact same logic sparky used to PH Oliva for Sivilla (Power Late and VR) when he hit the GW HR.
On the defensive replacement I don't know but have a guess.
It probably looked at
DEFENSIVE SUBS AND REST
Use defensive subs if winning by
In the manager setting and since it was tied it didn't look at the defensive replacements. It's a hole in the logic tree that should look to replace PH's with the first player on the Defensive replacement chart.
1/22/2017 12:52 AM (edited)