Posted by treyomo on 3/6/2017 10:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachWard95 on 3/6/2017 2:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 3/6/2017 2:18:00 PM (view original):

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A	Very High	Yes	75%
St. John's	steveatdsm	DI	B	High	Yes	25%

Who won?

Some interesting info after communicating with coach steve, who was gracious enough to share:

- Identical preference ratings for both schools
- Both offered starts
- SJ promised 25 minutes, UConn promised 15
- UConn had 916 APs, SJ 355
- Both maxed HVs and CVs from the beginning
- UConn has a one letter grade prestige advantage

So, a 270% AP advantage and 1 prestige letter grade lead is not enough to keep a team at moderate or below. This tells me max effort no longer makes sense, because APs mean very little. Extra minutes mean much more, and prestige means virtually nothing if both schools are at same level DI.

Honestly, I think AP is too powerful. And the roll was fair. I expect something like that but not built from ap but considering credits from prestige.

Posted by Benis on 3/7/2017 5:38:00 AM (view original):
Are you sure preferences were identical? There is a gradient so not all Very Goods are equal. Unless its Offense/defense.

Only two preferences - strong conference (both in Big East) and success (UConn Sweet 16, out, PIT last 3 seasons; St John's PIT F4, out, PIT last 3 seasons). So, if anything, UConn had a slight success advantage.

The only way the battle between UConn/St. John's makes any sense to me is that the impact of minutes is MASSIVE (even when the recruit does NOT have a playing preference).

I mean in the order of 1 minute = 1 HV type weighting (which IMO would be crazy OP). That or WIS has a bug in their code where all actions are being multiplied by minutes even when the recruit doesn't have the Wants To Play preference.

Posted by buddhagamer on 3/7/2017 12:49:00 PM (view original):
The only way the battle between UConn/St. John's makes any sense to me is that the impact of minutes is MASSIVE (even when the recruit does NOT have a playing preference).

I mean in the order of 1 minute = 1 HV type weighting (which IMO would be crazy OP). That or WIS has a bug in their code where all actions are being multiplied by minutes even when the recruit doesn't have the Wants To Play preference.

The preferences affect the value of APs. And maybe the value of visits, to a lesser degree. Promises have stand-alone value. It's not a bug.

Glenn Coburn

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
Louisville	themonstars	DI	B+	Very High	Yes	53%
Vanderbilt	indiansrck27	DI	B	Very High	Yes	47%

Waiting to hear back from themonstars but I had 20 HV, 1 CV, Start, 25 minutes, and 534 AP.
Preferences for me was Neutral for Strong Defense and Very Good for Conference

Posted by pkoopman on 3/7/2017 1:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by buddhagamer on 3/7/2017 12:49:00 PM (view original):
The only way the battle between UConn/St. John's makes any sense to me is that the impact of minutes is MASSIVE (even when the recruit does NOT have a playing preference).

I mean in the order of 1 minute = 1 HV type weighting (which IMO would be crazy OP). That or WIS has a bug in their code where all actions are being multiplied by minutes even when the recruit doesn't have the Wants To Play preference.

The preferences affect the value of APs. And maybe the value of visits, to a lesser degree. Promises have stand-alone value. It's not a bug.

Preferences affect all actions but in the case in question, the recruit had *NO* preference to play (he only had Wants Success, both Offense/Defence which neither team had either of, and Strong Conference which both teams were from the same conference).

Recruit in question

So i was saying if the recruit had no preference to play then in my opinion to overcome that full grade of prestige plus 600 addtional APs, then that extra 10 minutes has to have a huge standalone value *OR* WIS has a bug where the extra minutes St. Johns provided is still affecting all his submitted action (thus giving him a bigger credit even though he shouldn't of been getting it).

Posted by buddhagamer on 3/7/2017 2:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pkoopman on 3/7/2017 1:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by buddhagamer on 3/7/2017 12:49:00 PM (view original):
The only way the battle between UConn/St. John's makes any sense to me is that the impact of minutes is MASSIVE (even when the recruit does NOT have a playing preference).

I mean in the order of 1 minute = 1 HV type weighting (which IMO would be crazy OP). That or WIS has a bug in their code where all actions are being multiplied by minutes even when the recruit doesn't have the Wants To Play preference.

The preferences affect the value of APs. And maybe the value of visits, to a lesser degree. Promises have stand-alone value. It's not a bug.

Preferences affect all actions but in the case in question, the recruit had *NO* preference to play (he only had Wants Success, both Offense/Defence which neither team had either of, and Strong Conference which both teams were from the same conference).

Recruit in question

So i was saying if the recruit had no preference to play then in my opinion to overcome that full grade of prestige plus 600 addtional APs, then that extra 10 minutes has to have a huge standalone value *OR* WIS has a bug where the extra minutes St. Johns provided is still affecting all his submitted action (thus giving him a bigger credit even though he shouldn't of been getting it).

Right. And the answer is A, promises have a stand alone effect that has nothing to do with preferences. You may think it's too big, I disagree. Keep in mind, SJU was on the low side of signing range. I think this is an instance where people may be assuming APs are more powerful than they really are.

The big difference in signing odds was caused by 2 factors. The difference between a top-of-conference team and a mid-conference team, and a bunch of phone calls and letters. I think it's safe to assume that if promises were equal, SJU would have been locked out at moderate. What has really happened here is that SJU gave itself a shot by making a big commitment that was not matched by their rival.

D2 Battle here, seen a lot of D1 vs D2 / D3 so figured I'd post a standard one that just finished 20 mins ago

Arkansas Tech	kermit	DII	B+	Very High	Yes	48%
St. Mary's (TX)	bagger288	DII	B+	Very High	Yes	52%
Dallas	duece112	DIII	C-	Very Low	No	0%

I went on first cycle finished with 690 AP (40.58 AVG) 20 HV 1 Campus Visit and 15 minutes promised. Started first few cycles with 30 AP as I had 4 openings and transitioned slowly up to 40 and eventually 50 a cycle when the battle heated up. Arkansas State was listed as just "high" for probably a day worth of cycles until the one that just passed they bumped to "very high" and he signed with me.

This result makes me 0 for 6 in the past three seasons when having the highest percentage on signing a player. Promised start and 20 minutes and maxed out Home visits. Literally nothing else I could have done to sign player. This could be a big reason why as of now, I will only have 3 players on scholarship that I signed and recruited. DId I mention I was leading???!!!!



CoachDivisionPrestigeInt LevelScholarship Offer?OddsKansaszags27DIAVery HighYes34%MissourielmossleDIA-Very HighYes39%Oklahomadjbrewer0808DIA-Very HighYes27%BaylorSim AIDIBVery LowNo0%Central FloridaSim AIDIBVery LowNo0%ColoradoSim AIDIB+Very LowNo0%DukeSim AIDIA+Very LowNo0%FloridaSim AIDIBVery LowNo0%Kansas StatealebearDIB-Very LowNo0%Notre DameSim AIDIA-Very LowNo0%

Someone explain to me how Michigan won this? Only preference was distance and it was far away, He is from Indiana?



Leonard Fernando

eam	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
Baylor	garmansouth	DI	B-	Very High	Yes	29%
Providence	manderson	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	35%
Michigan	rudyrude9	DI	B-	High	Yes	16%
Yale	spiff2	DI	C-	High	Yes	20%
Cal State Northridge	mikeyoyoma	DI	C+	Low	Yes	0%
Charlotte	Sim AI	DI	B	Very Low	No	0%
Denver	Sim AI	DI	B	Very Low	No	0%
Florida State	Sim AI	DI	B-	Very Low	No	0%
Marshall	Sim AI	DI	B	Very Low	No	0%
Mississippi State	Sim AI	DI	B+	Very Low	No	0%

They had a 16% chance to win. Essentially, if this had been done 100 times, they would have won 16 times. This was one of those times.

16% = efforts resulted in a random roll won by Michigan. He had a bit more than 1 chance out of six to win it.

the lesson is that you REALLY want to try and avoid being in 3- and 4-way battles. even when you have the best odds of the bunch, there is usually ~70% chance someone else lands him. odds are horrible.

I think we all jumped on him pretty late, even with a preference of being at a far away school, wow!

Posted by buddhagamer on 3/7/2017 12:49:00 PM (view original):
The only way the battle between UConn/St. John's makes any sense to me is that the impact of minutes is MASSIVE (even when the recruit does NOT have a playing preference).

I mean in the order of 1 minute = 1 HV type weighting (which IMO would be crazy OP). That or WIS has a bug in their code where all actions are being multiplied by minutes even when the recruit doesn't have the Wants To Play preference.

One thing that I think that is easy to forget is that the timing of promised minutes matter and are not being considered here. Promised minutes have multipliers , even if they don't have a preference to play. It is just magnified if they do wan to play.

Saying the minutes promised does not tell the whole picture. If one team promised from the first cycle they could and another promised the last cycle before the player signed, there is a huge different in effort recieved I believe.

Open to anyone who thinks I am wrong on that.