Posted by CoachSpud on 2/17/2017 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.
What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.
That is an utterly preposterous result.
No, it's not. (1) Promises are big. (2) No mention of preferences, which are also big. (3) A 21% chance of winning is still a chance of winning.
I don't think it's preposterous, but gives great insight on the weights given to various actions. Per snewell's post in the other results thread:
- He had 1200 more APs
- He had four fewer home visits
- Both had a CV
- He promised 15 mins + start, no promises for me
- He had two very good preferences zero bad, I had one very good preference and 2 bad
What I read from this:
- values of APs between DI and DIII are not as different as I thought;
- HVs don't carry as much weight as I thought
- Promises and preferences don't consider division as part of weighting
Once he got to high, the math (regardless of division says he had a 1 in 5 chance, and he hit that. Still, to me the most surprising part is the status improvement in the last cycle. I know I was the only VH or H prior to the cycle he signed - those last cycle visits and APs he performed were enough to outweight the three HVs and 80 APs I applied in the cycle he signed.
I bear no ill will to snewell - he made a calculated risk play and hit the jackpot, and I wasn't aggressive enough in closing the deal. I'm just surprised that the DI vs DIII doesn't carry more weight.