Bubble Watch DIAA Topic

Hi guys. I decided to spend some time and start a bubble watch for this season. Likely not gonna get all the conferences done, but we'll see. Obviously I only look at humans and only those I perceive as in contention for the playoffs.
Day 9:

SWAC
Locks:
Texas Southern (9-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 30), Alabama A&M (8-1, WIS: 4 , SOS: 7):
High wis rankings and not many dangerous games left.
Should be in:
Grambling State (7-2, WIS: 18, SOS: 27): There is still the game with Liberty, the rest is SIM AIs.
Need help:
Liberty (5-4, WIS: 65, SOS, 84): Liberties schedule is much better than the SOS indicates, and it also still has games vs GSU and TSU left so that should come up a bit. But a) it is unlikely Liberty wins them both, b) it is still not very likely that would be enough to improve the SOS to the level needed to get in with 4 losses.

Southern Conference
Tomorrows game of GSU vs Western Carolina may be an early championship game.

Should be in:
Western Carolina (9-0, WIS: 11, SOS: 65): It was a flawless campaign so far. There are still two games vs humans left. I think they would be safe even if they lost both though.
Work to do:
Georgia Southern (9-0, WIS: 19, SOS: 105): Despite a win over Jacksonville State, the SOS looks really bad so far, meaning that even tough unbeaten, Georgia southern still needs to beat at least App State, maybe also Western to be absolutely save. If they beat them both, their ranking should really improve however.
Northwestern State (7-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 45): Beat the last human on its schedule, and is generally looking good. However, a possible conference championship game loss could bring NSU down to a place uncomfortably close to the bubble.
Needs help:
Appalachian State (5-4, WIS: 47, SOS: 37): OOC didn’t go well, but with GSU and Western Carolina, still up, the SOS is gonna look good in the end. But it would probably take beating both of them to make it in, and even then I would not be completely certain.

PFL
Locks:
Drake (9-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 31): 3 seed in the worst imaginable case.
Should be in:
San Diego (8-1, WIS: 9, SOS: 33): Should be safe as the SOS should stay where it is. If things go wrong against both Drake and Dayton they’ll lose seeds, but I doubt they could miss the playoffs unless there is a loss to a SIM AI.
Work to do:
Dayton (7-2, WIS: 20, SOS: 39): I’d tend to think that things look good, but the SOS will take a hit despite a tough game vs San Diego, so I believe Dayton still needs to take care of business.
Jacksonville (6-3, WIS: 41, SOS: 47): Got back into the conversation today. 4 wins vs 3 Sim AIs and CSU should bring them right to the good side of the bubble. However Jacksonville would also have to play a CC game, and that one could cost them.
Davidson (7-2, WIS: 38, SOS: 97): Flaweless in OOC, however, the signature win so far is 4-5 Robert Morris, and the loss to Jacksonville today hurt. However a win over the remaining slate should slightly improve the SOS, and there is only one human game remaingn, and Charleston southern – the team in question- is currently 5-4, so that may be doable.
Needs help:
Charleston Southern (5-4, WIS: 71, SOS: 81): After todays loss vs SIM AI it would take a minor miracle even if CSU won vs both Davidson and Jacksonville.

Ohio Valley Conference
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (9-0, WIS: 6, SOS: 43): even if the unthinkable (3 losses vs humans) were to happen, this would still be an SOS too high to miss.
Should be in:
Jacksonville State (7-2, WIS: 10, SOS: 2): Todays win made it a near certainty, as the SOS is not gonna drop out of the top ten, even though there is a potential 3rd loss on the sched with EKU, and even a game vs Samford.
Work to do:
SE Missouri (7-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 32): Probably needs one win vs EKU and Samford, because the SOS is also gonna take a hit in the last two games, playing SIM AIs that are a combined 3-15.
Eastern Illinois (6-3, WIS: 24 SOS: 19): the SOS number doesn’t really show how tough the schedule was. However as things are, with the 3 losses, the defending natty holders playoff margin is surprisingly small. A loss before the CC would put them square on the bubble, possibly bad side. And while EIU will be favorite in all three of those human games, T-tech and Marist are not automatic Ws.
Tennessee Tech (6-3, WIS: 29 SOS: 17): Taking over for OP isn’t easy, and there are 3 losses, but they are all to top ten teams. Thus todays win over Ops new team was real important, but not yet enough. Particcularly that game with EIU will be circled red on the sched, as a loss would likely put T-tech square on the bubble.
Marist (5-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 26): The OVC gauntlet was tough on this rebuild.However this is OP building, i.e. fast construction, and if he can somehow beat Iona and then upset EIU, he may just make the field. I am not completely sure that would be enough, but it is not that hard to imagine.
Needs help:
Samford (5-4, WIS: 51, SOS: 71): 51st doesn’t look good, but with games vs 3 top 20 teams there is plenty of opportunity to impress the committee. However, it would likely take beating all of them to go dancing. Even winning 2 would be an outstanding achievement.
Iona (4-5, WIS: 50, SOS: 34): Needs a minor miracle (upsets over EIU, Marist and T-Tech).

NEC
Locks:
Albany (8-1, WIS: 4, SOS: 16): Masterful SIM AI scheduling in OOC. Still needs to beat Sacred Heart to make the CC.
Lehigh (8-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 40): Only SIM AIs and CCU (who is not near playoff contention yet).
Work to do:
Sacred Heart (6-3, WIS: 22: SOS: 11): An SOS of 11 is usually good enough to make it in with 4 losses, but not with a lot of room to spare. So Tuesdays game vs Albany may not be an elimination game, but if that one were to be an L, then there would be no Margin vs Robert Morris.
Needs help:
Robert Morris (4-5, WIS: 46, SOS: 22): The OOC was super tough, but that is still 5 losses by now, and once you hit 4 or more loses your margin becomes very thin, 5 and its razor thin. Chances to shine are now only Sacred Heart on day 13. RMU definitely needs that one, but the SOS might just hold up, and if lots of bubble teams fail, this could happen.

MEAC
The east is interesting with three teams still in the running. The west is a bit too boring.
Work to do:
Duquesne (8-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 80): As far as the MEAC east goes, this was a regular gauntlet schedule, with the only loss, a squeaker vs Alabama A&M. Duquesne has at least a bit more margin than its conference mates. Still two more losses could be a problem. The season end should be very entertaining with Delaware State and La Salle on days 12 and 13. One win in those two is likely enough. Unless it still leaves them with a CC game.
La Salle (8-1, WIS: 32, SOS: 112): This is bubble central right there. It was not an impressive OOC, frankly only marginally better than Delaware State. Tomorrows game vs Deelaware state is highly important, as I think two losses would keep La Salle on the bubble in the end, more than that would be a killer with this SOS, and Duquesne will be waiting on day 13.
Delaware State (8-1. WIS: 45, SOS: 116): Yep that is only one loss, but the 5 worst SOS among all teams. With three humans coming up, that will improve though. That said, I am not too optimistic it will improve enough, where Delaware can afford a second loss. In any case it needs to upset at least one of Duquesne and La Salle.
Howard (5-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 18): With a bad conference division and only SIM AIs remaining, Howard will cruise to the CC, but the SOS will take a hit and the WIS ranking will likely not improve much. So Howard might have to win the conference.
2/19/2017 11:21 PM (edited)
Great stuff dachmann!
2/19/2017 10:55 PM
Awesome stuff! I wish this would have come out before my show I would have gone through it with everyone!
2/19/2017 10:56 PM
Posted by truedevil33 on 2/19/2017 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Awesome stuff! I wish this would have come out before my show I would have gone through it with everyone!
Sorry. But I guess we all have our own time constraints.

I hope to cover the remaining conferences tomorrow.
2/19/2017 11:08 PM
Posted by dachmann on 2/19/2017 11:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by truedevil33 on 2/19/2017 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Awesome stuff! I wish this would have come out before my show I would have gone through it with everyone!
Sorry. But I guess we all have our own time constraints.

I hope to cover the remaining conferences tomorrow.
No worries keep it up!
2/19/2017 11:11 PM
Dachmann - top notch sir!

nitros
2/20/2017 12:02 AM
Great stuff.
2/20/2017 12:37 AM
This is awesome!
2/20/2017 1:25 AM
and on the chance I beat them both, I still would have to play you in the CC game, um.... yea....not so much.
good stuff Dachman! thanks.
2/20/2017 4:34 AM
Takes me back to the days of Warner D2!!! Great stuff dachmann.
2/20/2017 12:32 PM
Ok, I did the conferences which got no attention yesterday. Later tonight I might also add some updates for those conferences that wwere looked at yesterday.

Ivy League
Feels like there is an accumulation of teams that might have taken it a bit too easy in OOC. Except for Penn whom I didn’t include due to its number of losses.

Should be in:
Holy Cross (9-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 58): The defending conference champion did okish in OOC and swept all east division humans. Things are good enough that even losses to both Princeton and Cornell would likely not banish them from the field.

Work to do:
Princeton (9-1, WIS: 32, SOS: 109): Was down t o a SIM at the halfand won on a last minute score. Princeton is paying in SOS for a horribly easy OOC. Despite going 2-1 vs human east schools, the margin for error is limited. Another loss may be ok , although it would have Princeton sweating, but going 0-2 vs Holy Cross and Cornell would end badly.
Cornell (8-2, WIS: 46, SOS: 105): So far 8-1 vs SIM AIs and 0-1 vs humans. I feel this could be a case where Cornell may not be safe unless it wins the conference outright, and just doesn’t feel probable. The SOS will only improve with the last two games vs Holy Cross and Princeton, but it feels like even a second loss would keep them out. If Cornell beats both the SOS will jump slightly, but not much.
Harvard (8-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 76) : A win over 5-5 Samford and one over 9-1 SIM AI SF Austin are currently the most significant achievements, and with no team with a winning record left, that is not likely to change and the SOS is likely to drop. Harvard definitely needs to win out, and might even have to win the conference championship, notan easy task as indicated by two cross division losses

Needs help:
Yale (4-6, WIS: 45, SOS: 22): On the achievements side, Yale is actually better than Harvard: wins over 9-1 Princeton and 6-4 Princeton are better. However there are also 6 losses. Even with 5 losses Yale wouldn’t be out of it. But that 4OT loss to Penn was probably too much. The SOS is likely to drop a bit vs 3 SIM AIs (although the OOC foes are likely to hold it up at least a bit). The only way to get there seems the conference championship, which means a win over Harvard on day 13 is absolutely necessary.

Gateway
Lock:
Youngstown State (9-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 31) . Good SOS, good record, only SIM AIs left.
Northern Iowa (9-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 14): Babcicks new project is going well., including a W over Youngstown state and only one human game left.

Work to do:
Florida International (7-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 34): That was a really important win over Savannah today, and it brings FIU right to the bubble with only SIM AIs left. I think it will be close, but tendency should be optimism.
Savannah State (9-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 75) On the other side of that game Is Savannah state who coudnt keep its halftime lead. A win over Appalachian State thus currently remains the best win on the season. A loss on Wednesday to NIU would put them uncomfortably close to the bubble. Currently it looks like it is mostly margin of victory keeping them ranked this high.

Big Sky
Due to 7 losses Cal Poly and NAU are not included.
Locks:
Texas State (10-0, WIS: 1, SOS:4): Nothing to see here, teams ranked thisn^high, this late in the season don’t miss the playoffs.

Work to do:
Portland State (7-3, WIS: 26, SOS: 20) Todays 5OT keeps PSU right in the playoff race. Overall there are some good wins here. I think that if PSU can win out, it could afford to lose in the conference championship. However todays 5OT win over 3-7 Cal Poly isn’t making me certain that wins over EWU and St Marys are a given.
St Mary’s (7-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 60): Bubble central right here. St Mary’s is on the right track, but with 3 humans remaining, including PSU, there is ample opportunity to mess up or shine. If they make it through all three I think they are safe, if not it should be close and likely not enough.
Stephen F Austin: (9-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 92)The only SIM on the board, currently 3-1 vs humans. But with Montana and Texas State still coming up, I believe they would need another one, and don’t think it will happen.
Montana State (7-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 49) No shame in losing by 4 points to Texas State, however, that leaves them with only one win over a winning team. It should be close in the end. A win over NAU is indispensable and maybe a W over SFA could push the SOS just enough to get them in.

Need (lots of) help:
Eastern Washington (6-4, WIS: 73, SOS: 106): There are still two opportunities to shine, but even winning those is likely not enough.

Atlantic 10
Maine (8-2, WIS: 10, SOS: 5): It takes imagination for Maine to miss the playoffs. Even a loss to FAU and a loss in a CC Is unlikely to be enough.
Should be in:
Villanova (9-1, WIS: 14 SOS: 37): todays win over Rhode Island should leave Villanova in a feeling of some safety. Yes there are still two human opponents, but even two more losses would likely be ok.
Richmond: (7-3, WIS: 19, SOS:6): Big W over FAU today, leaves Richmond with only SIM AIs and a good SOS, that is likely to drop a bit, but unlikely to drop bad enough. Unless there is a surprise loss or a surprise CC appearance, they should be safe.

Work to do:
William & Mary (8-2, WIS: 34 SOS: 79) : With Rhode Island, Delaware and Villanova still coming up, there is everything still to be played for. I think WM needs to go at least 2-1.
Rhode Island (7-3, WIS: 30 SOS: 40): Todays loss puts RIU square on the bubble. Tomorrows game vs William and Marry will likely decide whether RIU goes dancing or not.
Florida Atlantic (7-3, WIS: 50, SOS: 95): Todays loss hurt. FAU definitely needs to beat Maine tomorrow, and even that may not be enough to get the SOS where it needs to be.

SWAC
Nothing really happened in the SWAC today.
Locks:
Texas Southern (10-0), Alabama A&M (9-1):
Should be in:
Grambling State (8-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 19): There is still the game with Liberty, the rest is SIM AIs.
Need help:
Liberty (6-4, WIS: 62, SOS, 90): Liberties schedule is much better than the SOS indicates, and it also still has games vs GSU and TSU left so that should come up a bit. But a) it is unlikely Liberty wins them both, b) it is still not very likely that would be enough to improve the SOS to the level needed to get in with 4 losses.

Southern Conference
Lock:
Western Carolina (10-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 51): Todays W over GSU moved them to lock, and put them in the drivers seat to win the conference.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Georgia Southern (9-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 83): Todays loss is no disaster in itself, but it diminishes margin, and a Loss to app state would likely still cost them a good number of spots and bring them to the vicinities of the bubble.
Northwestern State (8-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 50): Beat the last human on its schedule, and is generally looking good. However, a possible conference championship game loss could bring NSU down to a place uncomfortably close to the bubble.
Appalachian State (6-4, WIS: 43, SOS: 41): OOC didn’t go well, but with GSU and Wester Carolina, still up, the SOS is gonna look good in the end. But it would probably take beating both of them to make it in, but at least currently thing are moving in the right direction.
PFL
Due to a loss to a SIM AI, I took Charleston Southern out of the bubble watch today.
Locks:
Drake (9-1).
San Diego (9-1, WIS: 5, SOS: 10): San Diego completely dominated Drake today, and is now in the drivers seat to win the conference and obviously moves up to lock status.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Dayton (8-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 63): 100 points is real nice for MOV. I’d tend to think that things look good, but the SOS has started to take a hit, so I believe Dayton still needs to take care of business.
Jacksonville (7-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 46): 3 wins vs 2 Sim AIs and CSU should bring them right to the good side of the bubble. However Jacksonville would also have to play a CC game, and that one could cost them.
Davidson (8-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 84): Flaweless in OOC, however, the signature win so far is 5-5 Robert Morris, and the loss to Jacksonville yesterday hurt. However a win over the remaining slate should slightly improve the SOS, and there is only one human game remaining, and Charleston southern – the team in question- is currently 5-5, so that may be doable.

Ohio Valley Conference
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (10-0)
Should be in:
Jacksonville State (8-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 9): Playoffs are a near-certainty, as the SOS is not gonna drop out of the top ten, even though there is a potential 3rd loss on the sched with EKU, and even a game vs Samford.
SE Missouri (8-2, WIS: 16, SOS: 33): Winning over Samford may not look super impressive, but Samford has a decent coach, and by not messing up, SMSU is making it pretty much certain that they are in.
Work to do:
Eastern Illinois (7-3, WIS: 22 SOS: 15): the SOS number doesn’t really show how tough the schedule was. However as things are, with the 3 losses, the defending natty holders playoff margin is surprisingly small. A loss before the CC would put them square on the bubble. And while EIU will be favorite in all three of those human games, none of them are not automatic Ws.
Tennessee Tech (7-3, WIS: 29 SOS: 36): Not losing a spot when beating a 1-9 SIM like today is already a win. Taking over for OP isn’t easy, and there are 3 losses, but they are all to top ten teams. Particularly that game with EIU will be circled red on the sched, as a loss would likely put T-tech square on the bubble. But first need to take care of Iona.
Needs help:
Marist (5-5, WIS: 42, SOS: 28): Things are starting to unravel, todays loss –hard fought as it was again- was the 4th in a row. Due to SIM AIs bad records, the SOS is unlikely to take the necessary step forward… and that is not to talk about the upcoming gam vs EIU.
Iona (5-5, WIS: 48, SOS: 34): A win over Marisst is a good first step in the right direction. However the task does not get easier and Iona still needs to do some very difficult things (upsets over EIU, and T-Tech).
Samford (5-5, WIS: 51, SOS: 59): Another loss has them very close to being completely off the board. Only the fact that there is still (unlikely) opportunities left has me giving them space.
NEC
Locks:
Albany (9-1), Lehigh (9-1).
Work to do:
Sacred Heart (7-3, WIS: 21: SOS: 18): An SOS of 18 is often enough to make it in with 4 losses, but not with a lot of room to spare. So Tuesdays game vs Albany may not be an elimination game, but if that one were to be an L, then there would be no Margin vs Robert Morris.
Needs help:
Robert Morris (5-5, WIS: 47, SOS: 27): The OOC was super tough, but that is still 5 losses by now, and once you hit 4 or more loses your margin becomes very thin, 5 and its razor thin. Chances to shine are now only Sacred Heart on day 13. RMU definitely needs that one, but the SOS might just hold up, and if lots of bubble teams fail, this could happen.

MEAC
Work to do:
Duquesne (9-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 86): As far as the MEAC east goes, this was a regular gauntlet schedule, with the only loss, a squeaker vs Alabama A&M. Duquesne has at least a bit more margin than its conference mates. Still two more losses could be a problem. The season end should be very entertaining with Delaware State and La Salle on days 12 and 13. A loss to La Salle would likely be ok, one to Delaware State would however leave them with an additional CC game, which is great for winning the conference, but bad for not risking the tournament.
La Salle (9-1, WIS: 28, SOS: 100): The O vs Delaware was no relevation, but the D clamped down for an important step in the right direction and some sort of signature win. The work is not over however. Norfolk State waits on Wednesday, and even a loss to Duquesne on day 13 might put La Salle back on the bubble.
Howard (6-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 29): With a bad conference division and only SIM AIs remaining, Howard will cruise to the CC, but the SOS is starting to take hits and the WIS ranking will likely not improve much. So Howard might have to win the conference.
Needs help:
Delaware State (8-2. WIS: 56, SOS: 110): The defense did ok vs La Salle, but 3 points on offense is simply not good enough. Even with only two losses, Delaware State is now in dire straits, playoffwise, the SOS is simply aweful and there is no signature win to be found. Delaware State definitely needs to beat Duquesne on wednsesday, and can’t affor a loss to Norfolk State either. And even then I think they’d need help.
2/20/2017 9:35 PM (edited)
Thanks for doing this dachmann!
2/20/2017 4:31 PM
Day 11 has arrived, and people are starting to get to safety, or to be taken off the board. If you are still outside the 45s and your remaining opponents have less than 18 wins, then you are probably out.

p.s. there will be no watch update tomorrow, as I am flying back to the mainland.

I have started and will bring the rest of the updates later tonight.

Ohio Valley Conference
After todays losses I took Samford, Iona and Marist off the watch.
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (11-0)
Jacksonville State (9-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 12): Removed any potential doubt. Can now focus on trying to win the conference division in tomorrrows showdown with EKU.
Should be in:
SE Missouri (8-3, WIS: 19, SOS: 18): Failed to get to complete safety today, but that said, with only SIM AIs remaining, things ‘d have to go weird for SMSU to be anything worse than a 6 seed.
Work to do:
Eastern Illinois (8-3, WIS: 18 SOS: 15): Took care of business today, but still has two humans left. The defending natty holders playoff margin increased a bit. However a loss before the CC would put them within shouting distance of the bubble. And while EIU will be favorite in all both remaining games, none of them are not automatic Ws.
Tennessee Tech (8-3, WIS: 27 SOS: 32): Beating Iona like a drum today. Still has to play EIU though, and the margin to the bubble is such, that T-tech might just end in or outside if it lost.
NEC
Locks:
Albany (10-1), Lehigh (10-1).
Work to do:
Sacred Heart (7-4, WIS: 24: SOS: 5): Despite the loss today, the WIS ranking did not tank badly, due to an improvement in SOS. However, the SOS will decrease in the next two games and 4 loss teams tend to feel that more than say 1 loss teams.
Needs help:
Robert Morris (6-5, WIS: 47, SOS: 40): The OOC was super tough, but that is still 5 losses by now, and once you hit 4 or more loses your margin becomes very thin, 5 and its razor thin. Chances to shine are now only Sacred Heart on day 13. RMU definitely needs that one, but the SOS might just hold up, and if lots of bubble teams fail, this could happen. Currently however, things are not looking too hopeful as the WIS ranking is not moving as it ought to.
MEAC
Work to do:
Duquesne (11-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 86): As far as the MEAC east goes, this was a regular gauntlet schedule, with the only loss, a squeaker vs Alabama A&M. Duquesne has at least a bit more margin than its conference mates. Still two more losses could be a problem. The season end should be very entertaining with Delaware State and La Salle on days 12 and 13. A loss to La Salle would likely be ok, one to Delaware State would however leave them with an additional CC game, which is great for winning the conference, but bad for not risking the tournament.
La Salle (10-1, WIS: 31, SOS: 107): The work is not over. Norfolk State waits on Wednesday, and even a loss to Duquesne on day 13 might put La Salle back on the bubble, tendency bad side.
Howard (7-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 39): With a bad conference division and only SIM AIs remaining, Howard will cruise to the CC, but the SOS is continuing to take hits and the WIS ranking will likely not improve much. So Howard might have to win the conference.
Needs help:
Delaware State (9-2. WIS: 52, SOS: 113): A decent win today, over a teeam with a worse record than it is worth. However Delaware State is still far out, and even a surprise win over Duquesne is unlikely to be enough, due to ridicoulus OOC and the weak MEAC.

Ivy League
Should be in:
Holy Cross (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 37): Missed an opportunity to geet to safety, not to talk of winning the division, although that ship hasn’t completely sailed yet. Playoff wise there should not be panic though, as even a loss to Cornell would likely not banish them from the field.
Work to do:
Princeton (10-1, WIS: 28, SOS: 93): Important win today, primarily thanks to defense. Still, Princeton is paying in SOS for a horribly easy OOC. There is some margin now, but a loss to Cornell would keep Princeton sweating till the end.
Cornell (9-2, WIS: 48, SOS: 118): The SOS is now pretty much as bad as it gets. But real opponents are waiting tomorrow and on Thursday. I still feel this could be a case where Cornell may not be safe unless it wins the conference outright, and that just doesn’t feel probable. If Cornell beats both Princeton and Holy Cross the SOS will jump, but likely not quite enough to make the field without.
Harvard (9-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 79) :. Harvard definitely needs to win out, and might even have to win the conference championship, not an easy task as indicated by two cross division losses
Needs help:
Yale (5-6, WIS: 45, SOS: 35): On the achievements side, Yale is actually better than Harvard: wins over 10-1 Princeton and 6-5 App State are better. However there are also 6 losses. Even with 5 losses Yale wouldn’t be out of it. But that 4OT loss to Penn was probably too much. The SOS is likely to drop a bit vs 3 SIM AIs (although the OOC foes are likely to hold it up at least a bit). The only way to get there seems the conference championship, which means a win over Harvard on day 13 is absolutely necessary. All that said, Yale could win the conference. It has beaten Princeton, and Princeton just might win the west.

Gateway
Lock:
Youngstown State (10-1), Northern Iowa (10-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 14)
Should be in:
Savannah State (10-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 76): Just by holding steady vs a SIM (ok, blowing them out of the water), Savannah State moved forward today. Despite a win over Appalachian State thus currently being the best win on the season Savannah State has an okish SOS number in Wis’ eyes. Even a loss to NIU tomorrow should not get them to sweat too much.
Work to do:
Florida International (8-3, WIS: 32, SOS: 45): FIU is right to the bubble with only SIM AIs left. I think it will be close, but tendency should be optimism.

Big Sky
Todays loss took EWU off the board.
Locks:
Texas State (11-0)
Work to do:
Portland State (8-3, WIS: 25, SOS: 30): I think that if PSU can win out, it could afford to lose in the conference championship, a loss before would render things very close. However yesterdays 5OT win over 3-7 Cal Poly isn’t making me certain that wins over EWU and St Marys are a given.
St Mary’s (8-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 56): Today was the first of three games vs humans in a row, and it went quite nicely. St Mary’s is on the right track, but with 2 humans remaining, including PSU, there is ample opportunity to mess up or shine. If they make it through all three I think they are should get to the right side of the bubble (although will still have a CC). if St marys stumbles vs any of them, it should still be close, but likely not enough.
Stephen F Austin: (10-1, WIS: 26, SOS: 96): Remains the only SIM on the board, currently 3-1 vs humans. But with Montana and Texas State still coming up, I believe they would need another W over a human, and don’t think it will happen.
Montana State (8-3, WIS: 34, SOS: 96) Got by NAU today, and is inching ever so close to the right side of the bubble. It should be close in the end. Feels like a W over SFA could push the SOS just enough to get them in.
Atlantic 10
Todays loss eliminated FAU
Locks:
Maine (9-2)
Villanova (10-1, WIS: 13 SOS: 41): With the win today, Villanova is completely safe and can focus completely on winning the conference division vs WM on Thursday.
Should be in:
Richmond: (8-3, WIS: 21, SOS:11): Took, care of business vs a SIM, but had the SOS drop slightly. However, unless there is a surprise loss or a surprise CC appearance, they should be safe.
Work to do:
William & Mary (9-2, WIS: 29 SOS: 70) : A decisive W over Rhode Island gets them a little margin. With Delaware and Villanova still coming up, there is still a lot to be played for. I think WM needs to go at least 1-1.
Need help:
Rhode Island (7-4, WIS: 38 SOS: 36): Todays loss is quite a setback, and with only SIM AIs remaining, RIU is likely ending up just outside the bubble

SWAC
Nothing really happened in the SWAC today.
Locks:
Texas Southern (11-0), Alabama A&M 10-1):
Should be in:
Grambling State (9-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 31): There is still the game with Liberty, the rest is SIM AIs.
Need help:
Liberty (7-4, WIS: 57, SOS, 94): Liberties schedule is much better than the SOS indicates, and it also still has games vs GSU and TSU left so that should come up a bit. But a) it is unlikely Liberty wins them both, b) it is still not very likely that would be enough to improve the SOS to the level needed to get in with 4 losses.

Southern Conference
Lock:
Western Carolina (11-0).
Georgia Southern (10-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 83): Todays win brings GSU straight to safety, as it means there are no big hurdles anymore, and the SOS will not fall through the floor.
Work to do:
Northwestern State (9-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 562: Beat the last human on its schedule, and is generally looking good. However, a possible conference championship game loss could bring NSU down to a place uncomfortably close to the bubble.
Needs help:
Appalachian State (6-5, WIS: 41, SOS: 27): The problem with todays loss was less that it cost App State WIS ranking spots (it didn’t), but that it was a missed opportunity. There is still the opportunity vs WCU, but even if they won that, that would be more theoretical.

PFL
Locks:
Drake (10-1), San Diego (10-1)
Should be in:
Work to do:
Dayton (8-3, WIS: 30, SOS: 47): Bubble teams everywhere were rooting against Dayton and got their wish. Dayton is now within the reaches of the bubble again. But with the SOS likely to take a hit, there will be quite some sweating to do.
Jacksonville (8-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 48): Inching closer to the bubble and might cross to the right side by thursday. However, it is unlikely that there will be much Margin for a CC loss. Jacksonville likely needs to win the conference.
Davidson (9-2, WIS: 36, SOS: 87): Also inching closer to the bubble, but will not have a CC game, which may be good. However, it is not sure, right now they project just to the razor edge of the bubble.
2/21/2017 9:02 PM (edited)
Well, one day no bubble watch and things are completely different. At least if it is day 12 you’re missing. Maybe you should see this thing less as a bubble watch than a: “how to look at the conference championship day if you are on the bubble” guide
CC games in order of how important they are to the bubble:
Full bubble importance:
Harvard (11-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 89) vs Princeton (12-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 87): No game is likely more important to the bubble than this one. If Princeton loses, they likely stay in anyway. Bubble teams will be rooting against Harvard, because a loss of the Crimson would likely means that a spot in the playoffs frees up for somebody else. After a tight first half, the first meeting went with 37-17 to the Tigers. Harvard played SFA. Princeton played no bubble relevant teams other than its first game with Harvard.
San Diego vs Jacksonville (9-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 43): Bubble teams everywhere will be rooting for San Diego. Nobody knows if Jacksonville would get into the WIS top 32 if they win or an outright bid stealer, but it matters little: If Jacksonville wins they take a bid from somebody who currently has one. The good news for bubble tams is, that a first meeting indicated that San Diego is likely to win. SD played Dayton, Jacksonville and SD both played Davidson.
LaSalle (9-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 51) vs Howard (9-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 51). Both Teams are currently outside the 32, and the winner WILL take a bid from somebody who currently does not have one. Honestly, I think picking a winner here is really difficult. LaSalle played Grambling and Dusquesne. Howard played Tennessee Tech.
Some bubble implications:
Western Carolina vs Northwestern State (11-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 70): Well Northwestern State should be ok, unless this is a total blowout and things go wrong elsewhere. The first meeting between these two however was a blowout (62-6). Neither team played anyone close to the bubble.
Low bubble implications:
Youngstown State vs Northern Iowa. Neither team is close to the bubble. YSU played Tennessee Tech, Howard and Dayton. NIU played FIU and St Mary’s.
Texas Southern vs Alabama A&M. Neither team is close to the bubble. AAM played teams that are close to the bubble but likely safe in Dusquesne, FIU and Grambling State, TSU only played Grambling.
Texas State vs Portland State. Neither team is gonna fall out of the bubble. Portland lost the first meeting 31-24. PSU played Northwestern State, TXSt played SFA, and Sacred Heart. Both teams played Montana State and St Mary’s.
No or almost or no bubble implications:
Maine vs William & Mary: Neither team is gonna fall out of the bubble. Maine played Sacred Heart. W&M played Rhode Island.
Eastern Kentucky vs Easter Illinois. Neither team is close to the bubble. EKU played Howard, and both teams played Tennessee Tech.
Albany vs Lehigh: Neither team is close to the bubble. Albany played Sacred Heart, Lehigh played Jacksonville.

SWAC
Liberty could only pull off part one of the miracle. That was not enough and they are off the watch
Locks:
Texas Southern (13-0), Alabama A&M 12-1):
Work to do:
Grambling State (10-3, WIS: 29, SOS: 46): Well, losing to liberty and then playing a 3-10 SIM put Grambling a lot closer to the bubble than they would have liked. Still, they will probably go dancing, but with several bid stealers playing tomorrow, it will feel fairly uncomfortable.

Southern Conference
Yesterdays loss took app state off the board.
Locks:
Western Carolina (13-0), Georgia Southern (12-1)
Should be in:
Northwestern State (11-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 70): Things developed just enough in the right direction so NW State is likely ok even with a loss. Still, better not lose to heavily, just to be sure.

PFL
Locks:
Drake (12-1), San Diego (12-1)
Work to do:
Davidson (11-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 80): Coastal Carolina was an ugly overtime win over a SIM and a missed chance at improving the MOV. Now Dayton has to watch how the dice fall tomorrow. Other than Jacksonville and San Diego they played nobody who is acitve tomorrow, so it is more how other bubble teams opponents do. Things should be ok, but this is not comfortable and going from 31 to 33 without playing has happened before, and with the MEAC final making it almost certain that one team will take a spot from the current top 32, this is really wobbly.
Dayton (10-3, WIS: 36, SOS: 87): Also inching closer to the bubble, but will not have a CC game, which may be good. However, it is not sure, right now they project just to the razor edge of the bubble.
Jacksonville (9-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 43): Might have moved into the top 32, had they not lost to Charleston yesterday. Now it is clear: Jacksonville only goes dancing if they win tomorrow.

Ohio Valley Conference
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (13-0), Jacksonville State (10-3)
SE Missouri (10-3, WIS: 23, SOS: 35): The SIMs braought the SOS down a bit, but not enough to have to worry about the playoffs.
Eastern Illinois (10-3, WIS: 18 SOS: 15): 3 Ws over 3 humans in 3 days have EIU completely save.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Tennessee Tech (9-4, WIS: 30 SOS: 18): This is the bubble, probably still the good side of it. Probably, not certainly, particularly as T-tech played a number of teams in action tomorrow, thus the SOS could still change a good bit.
NEC
Robert Morris is off the board after todays hard fought loss.
Locks:
Albany (12-1), Lehigh (12-1).
Should be in:
Sacred Heart (9-4, WIS: 27: SOS: 15): I took a stellar 4th quarter to beat Robert Morris, but they did it. As a consequence Sacred heart should feel fairly comfortable as in, unless things go wrong absuletely everywhere, this should be good enough.
MEAC
The reason that the MEAC will be a 2 bid conference bid, is that Duquesne missed the conference championship. Delawaree State lost its last shot in a loss to Dusquesne on Wednesday.
Should be in
Duquesne (11-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 83): That loss to LaSalle cost them a shot at the Conference Championship and at better seeding. But at least they are fairly sure to make the tournament unless something completely nightmarish happens.
Work to do:
La Salle (11-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 106): LaSalle pretty much buried themselves on Wednesday by losing to 5-8 Norfolk State, and then dug some more dirt on top by being down 21-7 at the half. But then they gave themselves life by pulling out a W anyway. Bubble teams everywhere must have been unhappy, as this means the MEAC will take another bid. It is very simple: LaSalle wins tomorrow and they are in, they don’t and they are out.
Howard (9-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 51): Howard played a tough OOC, but also lost 4 times, then –through no fault of their own- got a severly diminished SOS in conference. Consequence: They need to win vs LaSalle tomorrow.

Ivy League
Two losses in a row eliminated Cornell, and another one eliminated Yale.
Locks:
Holy Cross (11-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 26): Beat Cornell yesterday to eliminate doubts theat were probably misplaced in the first place.
Should be in:
Princeton (12-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 87): Won the division by beating Cornell today. The SOS also got a bit better lately so a loss should be no complete disaster. But a horribly easy OOC has my vivid imagination at least finding some wild scenarios where things go awry.
Work to do:
Harvard (11-2, WIS: 32, SOS: 89) : The 5 in-division opponents combined for just an 11- 29 outside their conference division combined with a not overly difficult OOC, Harvard, sdespite decent record, can probably not afford to lose tomorrow.
Gateway
Lock:
Youngstown State (12-1), Northern Iowa (12-1)
Savannah State (12-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 59): Even a loss to NIU didn’t ding the WIS ranking much.
Should be in:
Florida International (10-3, WIS: 26, SOS: 47): The OOC opponetns performed nicely lately, allowing FIU to get some distance from place 32.
Big Sky
Locks:
Texas State (13-0)
Portland State (10-3, WIS: 21, SOS: 24): PSU won with a last second field goal over St Marys today. This has created the necessary margin. Even a loss tomorrow should not depress the ranking too much, seeing as Texas State is the WIS number one with a stellar 13-0 record.
Work to do:
Montana State (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 46) Beating SFA yesterday probably got them in. However the margin isn’t such, that Montana can be completely disinterested by tomorrows results.
Needs help
Stephen F Austin: (10-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 77): Two clear losses in a row have taken the only SIM on the board from inside the bubble to likely outside the bubble. However, with chaos ensuing ahead it could happen. But I’d have to be a lot of chaos, as there are likely at least as many teams passing SFA by as falling past them.
St Mary’s (10-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 39): Probably did not just lose the division, but also their playoff bid on that last second field goal by PSU. Its not that SMU has no achievements at all, they beat a number of human opponents, but none currently in the top 32. Ihave to dream wildly to see them making the tourney.
Atlantic 10
Locks: Maine (11-2), Villanova (11-2)
Richmond: (10-3, WIS: 18, SOS: 13): That was an ugly OT win vs a Sim today, but it was a W. Now is comfortably in with no game left.
William & Mary (11-2, WIS: 19 SOS: 58) : 3 Ws over humans in a row have created the margin, where even a loss tomorrow is not gonna spill WM out of the dance entirely.

Need help:
Rhode Island (9-4, WIS: 38 SOS: 44): Beating SIM AIs the last two days didn’t do much for the SOS. Chances are more theoretical.
2/23/2017 9:10 PM (edited)
Thank you for all of the work on this!
2/23/2017 10:44 PM
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