Ok, I did the conferences which got no attention yesterday. Later tonight I might also add some updates for those conferences that wwere looked at yesterday.
Ivy League
Feels like there is an accumulation of teams that might have taken it a bit too easy in OOC. Except for Penn whom I didn’t include due to its number of losses.
Should be in:
Holy Cross (9-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 58): The defending conference champion did okish in OOC and swept all east division humans. Things are good enough that even losses to both Princeton and Cornell would likely not banish them from the field.
Work to do:
Princeton (9-1, WIS: 32, SOS: 109): Was down t o a SIM at the halfand won on a last minute score. Princeton is paying in SOS for a horribly easy OOC. Despite going 2-1 vs human east schools, the margin for error is limited. Another loss may be ok , although it would have Princeton sweating, but going 0-2 vs Holy Cross and Cornell would end badly.
Cornell (8-2, WIS: 46, SOS: 105): So far 8-1 vs SIM AIs and 0-1 vs humans. I feel this could be a case where Cornell may not be safe unless it wins the conference outright, and just doesn’t feel probable. The SOS will only improve with the last two games vs Holy Cross and Princeton, but it feels like even a second loss would keep them out. If Cornell beats both the SOS will jump slightly, but not much.
Harvard (8-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 76) : A win over 5-5 Samford and one over 9-1 SIM AI SF Austin are currently the most significant achievements, and with no team with a winning record left, that is not likely to change and the SOS is likely to drop. Harvard definitely needs to win out, and might even have to win the conference championship, notan easy task as indicated by two cross division losses
Needs help:
Yale (4-6, WIS: 45, SOS: 22): On the achievements side, Yale is actually better than Harvard: wins over 9-1 Princeton and 6-4 Princeton are better. However there are also 6 losses. Even with 5 losses Yale wouldn’t be out of it. But that 4OT loss to Penn was probably too much. The SOS is likely to drop a bit vs 3 SIM AIs (although the OOC foes are likely to hold it up at least a bit). The only way to get there seems the conference championship, which means a win over Harvard on day 13 is absolutely necessary.
Gateway
Lock:
Youngstown State (9-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 31) . Good SOS, good record, only SIM AIs left.
Northern Iowa (9-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 14): Babcicks new project is going well., including a W over Youngstown state and only one human game left.
Work to do:
Florida International (7-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 34): That was a really important win over Savannah today, and it brings FIU right to the bubble with only SIM AIs left. I think it will be close, but tendency should be optimism.
Savannah State (9-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 75) On the other side of that game Is Savannah state who coudnt keep its halftime lead. A win over Appalachian State thus currently remains the best win on the season. A loss on Wednesday to NIU would put them uncomfortably close to the bubble. Currently it looks like it is mostly margin of victory keeping them ranked this high.
Big Sky
Due to 7 losses Cal Poly and NAU are not included.
Locks:
Texas State (10-0, WIS: 1, SOS:4): Nothing to see here, teams ranked thisn^high, this late in the season don’t miss the playoffs.
Work to do:
Portland State (7-3, WIS: 26, SOS: 20) Todays 5OT keeps PSU right in the playoff race. Overall there are some good wins here. I think that if PSU can win out, it could afford to lose in the conference championship. However todays 5OT win over 3-7 Cal Poly isn’t making me certain that wins over EWU and St Marys are a given.
St Mary’s (7-3, WIS: 39, SOS: 60): Bubble central right here. St Mary’s is on the right track, but with 3 humans remaining, including PSU, there is ample opportunity to mess up or shine. If they make it through all three I think they are safe, if not it should be close and likely not enough.
Stephen F Austin: (9-1, WIS: 27, SOS: 92)The only SIM on the board, currently 3-1 vs humans. But with Montana and Texas State still coming up, I believe they would need another one, and don’t think it will happen.
Montana State (7-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 49) No shame in losing by 4 points to Texas State, however, that leaves them with only one win over a winning team. It should be close in the end. A win over NAU is indispensable and maybe a W over SFA could push the SOS just enough to get them in.
Need (lots of) help:
Eastern Washington (6-4, WIS: 73, SOS: 106): There are still two opportunities to shine, but even winning those is likely not enough.
Atlantic 10
Maine (8-2, WIS: 10, SOS: 5): It takes imagination for Maine to miss the playoffs. Even a loss to FAU and a loss in a CC Is unlikely to be enough.
Should be in:
Villanova (9-1, WIS: 14 SOS: 37): todays win over Rhode Island should leave Villanova in a feeling of some safety. Yes there are still two human opponents, but even two more losses would likely be ok.
Richmond: (7-3, WIS: 19, SOS:6): Big W over FAU today, leaves Richmond with only SIM AIs and a good SOS, that is likely to drop a bit, but unlikely to drop bad enough. Unless there is a surprise loss or a surprise CC appearance, they should be safe.
Work to do:
William & Mary (8-2, WIS: 34 SOS: 79) : With Rhode Island, Delaware and Villanova still coming up, there is everything still to be played for. I think WM needs to go at least 2-1.
Rhode Island (7-3, WIS: 30 SOS: 40): Todays loss puts RIU square on the bubble. Tomorrows game vs William and Marry will likely decide whether RIU goes dancing or not.
Florida Atlantic (7-3, WIS: 50, SOS: 95): Todays loss hurt. FAU definitely needs to beat Maine tomorrow, and even that may not be enough to get the SOS where it needs to be.
SWAC
Nothing really happened in the SWAC today.
Locks:
Texas Southern (10-0), Alabama A&M (9-1):
Should be in:
Grambling State (8-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 19): There is still the game with Liberty, the rest is SIM AIs.
Need help:
Liberty (6-4, WIS: 62, SOS, 90): Liberties schedule is much better than the SOS indicates, and it also still has games vs GSU and TSU left so that should come up a bit. But a) it is unlikely Liberty wins them both, b) it is still not very likely that would be enough to improve the SOS to the level needed to get in with 4 losses.
Southern Conference
Lock:
Western Carolina (10-0, WIS: 9, SOS: 51): Todays W over GSU moved them to lock, and put them in the drivers seat to win the conference.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Georgia Southern (9-1, WIS: 20, SOS: 83): Todays loss is no disaster in itself, but it diminishes margin, and a Loss to app state would likely still cost them a good number of spots and bring them to the vicinities of the bubble.
Northwestern State (8-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 50): Beat the last human on its schedule, and is generally looking good. However, a possible conference championship game loss could bring NSU down to a place uncomfortably close to the bubble.
Appalachian State (6-4, WIS: 43, SOS: 41): OOC didn’t go well, but with GSU and Wester Carolina, still up, the SOS is gonna look good in the end. But it would probably take beating both of them to make it in, but at least currently thing are moving in the right direction.
PFL
Due to a loss to a SIM AI, I took Charleston Southern out of the bubble watch today.
Locks:
Drake (9-1).
San Diego (9-1, WIS: 5, SOS: 10): San Diego completely dominated Drake today, and is now in the drivers seat to win the conference and obviously moves up to lock status.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Dayton (8-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 63): 100 points is real nice for MOV. I’d tend to think that things look good, but the SOS has started to take a hit, so I believe Dayton still needs to take care of business.
Jacksonville (7-3, WIS: 38, SOS: 46): 3 wins vs 2 Sim AIs and CSU should bring them right to the good side of the bubble. However Jacksonville would also have to play a CC game, and that one could cost them.
Davidson (8-2, WIS: 37, SOS: 84): Flaweless in OOC, however, the signature win so far is 5-5 Robert Morris, and the loss to Jacksonville yesterday hurt. However a win over the remaining slate should slightly improve the SOS, and there is only one human game remaining, and Charleston southern – the team in question- is currently 5-5, so that may be doable.
Ohio Valley Conference
Locks:
Eastern Kentucky (10-0)
Should be in:
Jacksonville State (8-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 9): Playoffs are a near-certainty, as the SOS is not gonna drop out of the top ten, even though there is a potential 3rd loss on the sched with EKU, and even a game vs Samford.
SE Missouri (8-2, WIS: 16, SOS: 33): Winning over Samford may not look super impressive, but Samford has a decent coach, and by not messing up, SMSU is making it pretty much certain that they are in.
Work to do:
Eastern Illinois (7-3, WIS: 22 SOS: 15): the SOS number doesn’t really show how tough the schedule was. However as things are, with the 3 losses, the defending natty holders playoff margin is surprisingly small. A loss before the CC would put them square on the bubble. And while EIU will be favorite in all three of those human games, none of them are not automatic Ws.
Tennessee Tech (7-3, WIS: 29 SOS: 36): Not losing a spot when beating a 1-9 SIM like today is already a win. Taking over for OP isn’t easy, and there are 3 losses, but they are all to top ten teams. Particularly that game with EIU will be circled red on the sched, as a loss would likely put T-tech square on the bubble. But first need to take care of Iona.
Needs help:
Marist (5-5, WIS: 42, SOS: 28): Things are starting to unravel, todays loss –hard fought as it was again- was the 4th in a row. Due to SIM AIs bad records, the SOS is unlikely to take the necessary step forward… and that is not to talk about the upcoming gam vs EIU.
Iona (5-5, WIS: 48, SOS: 34): A win over Marisst is a good first step in the right direction. However the task does not get easier and Iona still needs to do some very difficult things (upsets over EIU, and T-Tech).
Samford (5-5, WIS: 51, SOS: 59): Another loss has them very close to being completely off the board. Only the fact that there is still (unlikely) opportunities left has me giving them space.
NEC
Locks:
Albany (9-1), Lehigh (9-1).
Work to do:
Sacred Heart (7-3, WIS: 21: SOS: 18): An SOS of 18 is often enough to make it in with 4 losses, but not with a lot of room to spare. So Tuesdays game vs Albany may not be an elimination game, but if that one were to be an L, then there would be no Margin vs Robert Morris.
Needs help:
Robert Morris (5-5, WIS: 47, SOS: 27): The OOC was super tough, but that is still 5 losses by now, and once you hit 4 or more loses your margin becomes very thin, 5 and its razor thin. Chances to shine are now only Sacred Heart on day 13. RMU definitely needs that one, but the SOS might just hold up, and if lots of bubble teams fail, this could happen.
MEAC
Work to do:
Duquesne (9-1, WIS: 23, SOS: 86): As far as the MEAC east goes, this was a regular gauntlet schedule, with the only loss, a squeaker vs Alabama A&M. Duquesne has at least a bit more margin than its conference mates. Still two more losses could be a problem. The season end should be very entertaining with Delaware State and La Salle on days 12 and 13. A loss to La Salle would likely be ok, one to Delaware State would however leave them with an additional CC game, which is great for winning the conference, but bad for not risking the tournament.
La Salle (9-1, WIS: 28, SOS: 100): The O vs Delaware was no relevation, but the D clamped down for an important step in the right direction and some sort of signature win. The work is not over however. Norfolk State waits on Wednesday, and even a loss to Duquesne on day 13 might put La Salle back on the bubble.
Howard (6-4, WIS: 36, SOS: 29): With a bad conference division and only SIM AIs remaining, Howard will cruise to the CC, but the SOS is starting to take hits and the WIS ranking will likely not improve much. So Howard might have to win the conference.
Needs help:
Delaware State (8-2. WIS: 56, SOS: 110): The defense did ok vs La Salle, but 3 points on offense is simply not good enough. Even with only two losses, Delaware State is now in dire straits, playoffwise, the SOS is simply aweful and there is no signature win to be found. Delaware State definitely needs to beat Duquesne on wednsesday, and can’t affor a loss to Norfolk State either. And even then I think they’d need help.
2/20/2017 9:35 PM (edited)