Please be sure to separate out the two components of the Elites/Non-Elites/Non-BCS teams:
1. The team, itself, with its inherent advantages and/or disadvantages
2. The Coach of the team
This will prove, of course, to be a tremendously difficult task, since poor and mediocre coaches don't tend to get Elite jobs, while they get non-Elite and non-BCS jobs all the time. The presence robust data on every "level" of coaching ability at all three types of schools would yield the most meaningful distinctions.
Nonetheless, any existing data in its raw form (ie, Elite records vs. non-Elites, non-Elite records vs. non-BCS), will certainly show the hierarchy as Elite > non-Elite BCS > non-BCS. But wrapped up in such data are a couple of facts:
1. Elite schools tend to get the better/best coaches
2. Non-Elite BCS schools tend to be human-coached more than non-BCS schools
These tendencies, played out over tens- or hundreds of thousands of games over years of real time, will inevitably give rise to the aforementioned hierarchy. In reality, it proves little because better coaches tend to beat worse coaches and better coaches tend to coach at Elites. So now... is it the team or is it the coach? Elites DO have advantages over non-Elite BCS schools; non-Elite BCS schools DO have advantages over non-BCS schools. These show up in the form of recruiting advantages, which tend to show up as superior talent, which tends to show up as wins more than losses. That's the advantage of the school, itself, adjusted by the success (or lack thereof) of the coach at the school in question, since Prestige is a spectrum.
So what are you really seeing when you note that, say, Elites beat non-Elite BCS teams 80% of the time (made-up number)? Are you seeing some sort of Elite superiority? Or are you seeing coaching superiority? If it's coaching superiority that you're seeing, then the position shifts meaningfully: Do Not Schedule Elite Coaches. This is a different matter than not scheduling Elite teams. In fact, much hay can be made for non-Elite BCS schools by scheduling Elites with mediocre coaching. Even with mediocre coaching, Elites tend to have pretty good records and bolster one's SoS.
There is a lot to intelligent scheduling and to throw a "Don't schedule Elites if you're not one" blanket over it ignores some of the more nuanced aspects of the endeavor. As with most every facet of this game, it is really a sliding scale. I find nuggets of truth in both sides of this particular argument. And someday, when I find the motivation to complete my Have a Plan series - JUST TWO MORE ARTICLES TO GO! - I'll get to Scheduling.
2/27/2017 7:42 PM (edited)