Yeah the logic is fine. The only thing that is an opinion or unknown is how much the D3 spent and if that constitutes being heavily invested. He could have spent 200 APs to unlock the scholly offer. Need to get the rest of the data.

You're one needy fellow.

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/1/2017 5:53:00 PM (view original):
You're one needy fellow.

That's what my girlfriend grumbles at me every night when she's trying to go to sleep.

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/1/2017 5:53:00 PM (view original):
You're one needy fellow.

almost as needy as Mike is for threads to invade

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/1/2017 5:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by stewdog on 3/1/2017 4:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/1/2017 2:43:00 PM (view original):
My point, mully, was:

1. It was not difficult to knock off a D3 team that was on a D1 player VERY LATE in the process.
2. I didn't even need to use resources THAT I STILL HAD because I have way more because I am D1.

This thread is ridiculous unless you know how much the other guy put in.
There's nothing like making a "conclusion" based off made up evidence.
Find out how much the D3 invested and we can make a fair analysis... but this, I bet it was _____ is nonsense.

Be honest, it was relatively easy for you to knock him off.
AND you have no idea if he invested much.

I think my analysis is sound. My logic is solid.

Analysis and logic can be great... unless the "given" was flawed.

You have zero idea idea how much he invested, yet you're certain he had somewhere around x number of HV's or CV's? Really?
and you are certain your analysis is great?

Ok.
Thats the formula for a bad analysis.

I came up with a MINIMUM effort he could have invested in AP equivalents. I explained my reasoning behind my estimations. If you don't agree with it sobeit.


I started with known facts:

My effort
Signing %

I took a VERY conservative estimate of prestige and the extrapolated effort.

Do you really believe that you have "ZERO IDEA" how much the other team put in? I feel pretty confident I can calculate a minimum effort.

Posted by benrudy on 3/1/2017 3:33:00 PM (view original):
I've done a little test/control with a holdout sample between 3 teams. We came out with a 537% advantage between D1 and D3. So for every 1 D1 AP, a D3 team with the same prestige and the same preferences would have to invest 5.37 APs to make the same amount of progress. Granted, there is a pretty sizeable error bar in there since I had to equivalize the preferences and prestige which themselves had some error, but I'm pretty sure its between 450% and 600%. The holdout verified that my results are close but not perfect.

If that's the case, my UConn-Union loss makes no sense, since I had 4 more HV, same campus visit, and 1/3 the APs, vs. no promises - still waiting on a ticket response.

Posted by treyomo on 3/2/2017 11:41:00 AM (view original):

Posted by benrudy on 3/1/2017 3:33:00 PM (view original):
I've done a little test/control with a holdout sample between 3 teams. We came out with a 537% advantage between D1 and D3. So for every 1 D1 AP, a D3 team with the same prestige and the same preferences would have to invest 5.37 APs to make the same amount of progress. Granted, there is a pretty sizeable error bar in there since I had to equivalize the preferences and prestige which themselves had some error, but I'm pretty sure its between 450% and 600%. The holdout verified that my results are close but not perfect.

If that's the case, my UConn-Union loss makes no sense, since I had 4 more HV, same campus visit, and 1/3 the APs, vs. no promises - still waiting on a ticket response.

Preferences and prestige will narrow the gap - it looks like he had promised 15 minutes which bumps him up to a v. high there. And since he ended at high interest and you ended at v. high interest he still landed behind you.

I think 500% and 50 ap to 1 hv gets it about 2-1 if you give the d3 team a 10% preference bonus

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/2/2017 12:41:00 PM (view original):
I think 500% and 50 ap to 1 hv gets it about 2-1 if you give the d3 team a 10% preference bonus

he would have a much higher preference bonus from what I've seen. closer to 50% between prestige and just the difference in "wants to play". I dont know how the other preferences lined up with UConn, but it looked like Union matched up pretty well, so i think 50% is a pretty conservative estimate

Do we think that 1hv by a D1 team is worth 50 D1 APs or 50 D3 APs? Or is a home visit by a D1 team worth 5x as much as a home visit by a D3 team? i've done no analysis in that area

In more news, My A+ D3 team just got crushed by a D1 school in the second period. I had 8 HV's, 1 CV, 20 Minutes and 1400 AP. Lost in two cycles I think.

Received this response from CS, which explains part of my question:

DI actions matter greatly and will provide much more recruiting credit than a lower school. What you need to keep in mind is that lower schools considering credit is capped until when they can actually sign a recruit. For example, a DIII school cannot sign a DI quality recruit until the last 24 hours of recruiting and a DII school cannot sign a DI quality recruit until the 2nd window. However, they might have the highest interest in the player and technically be at Very High or High but they are only shown as Moderate as they cannot sign yet.

A lower school will not be able to jump on a recruit and take them away from a higher division school. But if they have been putting in effort the entire time they could actually have the lead once able to sign.

So, the reason I had been showing in the lead was that the DIII school's window to sign had not yet opened until the 11pm cycle. Once that hit, the DIII school's ranking is moved from artificially limited to moderate to whatever their effort dictates in comparison to other schools. That said, I still believe that a 15-11 HV lead and a 1-1 CV comparison should be enough for a DI A- school to be dominating any DIII school if the DI school has also added 500+ AP - that's my opinion - understand that is up for debate, but my 2 cents.

Posted by benrudy on 3/2/2017 1:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/2/2017 12:41:00 PM (view original):
I think 500% and 50 ap to 1 hv gets it about 2-1 if you give the d3 team a 10% preference bonus

he would have a much higher preference bonus from what I've seen. closer to 50% between prestige and just the difference in "wants to play". I dont know how the other preferences lined up with UConn, but it looked like Union matched up pretty well, so i think 50% is a pretty conservative estimate

Do we think that 1hv by a D1 team is worth 50 D1 APs or 50 D3 APs? Or is a home visit by a D1 team worth 5x as much as a home visit by a D3 team? i've done no analysis in that area

UConn's Effort

15 HV= 15 HV
1 CV= 3 HV
500 AP= 10 HV
X5= 140 HV

Union's Effort

19 HV =19 HV
1 CV= 3 HV
1 start= 3 HV
20 minutes= 2 HV
1700 AP= 34 HV
10% for preferences= 67 HV

It's not perfect but it's close. Preferences could be more valuable.

BTW, I am not saying this is "right" I just think this is (close to) how it works.

FYI - Union did 11 HVs, not 19 - UConn did 4 more HVs than Union.