a B prestige D1 team should have a far, far, far greater advantage than 50% over a B- D3 team. I would be in favor of at least a 10X advantage as a matter of course for D1 vs D3, and probably more.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/1/2017 12:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 3/1/2017 12:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/1/2017 9:27:00 AM (view original):
My point is it took very little effort to knock off a D3 team that was heavily invested in a recruit. I don't know for sure how much he put it but he was on him from the very beginning and I started recruiting him 2 days before the second period ended.

If I had one more cycle I would have doubled my effort by promising minutes, sending a HV and crushed the D3 school.

This happened after I lost 2 all in battles.

This thread is a joke. 1st you say he was heavily invested, then you come right back and say you don't know. Well it's true...you don't know how much they invested. It could have been the minimum it takes to get to VH,

Well, I don't know EXACTLY how much he invested but I can figure out roughly how much he put in.

This is what I do know:

I invested 162 AP.

He was on the players for the entire second period (and likely before that).

The value of my 162 AP was slightly more than the D3 had (I was 56-44 so the effort was very close to 50-50).

His preference's were roughly the same, he may have had a very small advantage.

My prestige gives me, at a very conservative estimate, 50% advantage.

I believe it is reasonable to suggest he had the equivalent of at least 250 AP in.


So my assessment is that he had AT LEAST 250 AP worth of effort in.

Lets just assume for fun you are correct.

Then.... you don't think it's ridiculous that for just ~100 more AP a DIII school can almost get to a 50/50 chance of signing a player vs a DI school?
I have no idea what he put in. But if that's the case, the title of the thread should have been. (DIII school has ~50% chance vs DI given similar effort,,, gasp!)

I doubt that's the case....but I just wanted to throw out the fact you shouldn't even have started a thread like this to get a reaction without having an idea of the specifics.

My point, mully, was:

1. It was not difficult to knock off a D3 team that was on a D1 player VERY LATE in the process.
2. I didn't even need to use resources THAT I STILL HAD because I have way more because I am D1.

Posted by jcfreder on 3/1/2017 1:57:00 PM (view original):
a B prestige D1 team should have a far, far, far greater advantage than 50% over a B- D3 team. I would be in favor of at least a 10X advantage as a matter of course for D1 vs D3, and probably more.

I think they do, I really think is closer to 200%, I hope the D3 guy gets back to me because it will be very telling. The guy was an international recruit so HV's were 1k a pop. I am willing to bet his effort was all (or mostly) the free recruit options.

Even if so, a 200% advantage for D1 over D3 is not realistic enough.

I've done a little test/control with a holdout sample between 3 teams. We came out with a 537% advantage between D1 and D3. So for every 1 D1 AP, a D3 team with the same prestige and the same preferences would have to invest 5.37 APs to make the same amount of progress. Granted, there is a pretty sizeable error bar in there since I had to equivalize the preferences and prestige which themselves had some error, but I'm pretty sure its between 450% and 600%. The holdout verified that my results are close but not perfect.

That actually holds up to the 800ish to 160 I posted earlier.

Posted by benrudy on 3/1/2017 3:33:00 PM (view original):
I've done a little test/control with a holdout sample between 3 teams. We came out with a 537% advantage between D1 and D3. So for every 1 D1 AP, a D3 team with the same prestige and the same preferences would have to invest 5.37 APs to make the same amount of progress. Granted, there is a pretty sizeable error bar in there since I had to equivalize the preferences and prestige which themselves had some error, but I'm pretty sure its between 450% and 600%. The holdout verified that my results are close but not perfect.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

I'd be careful when you say same preferences. Preferences are granular so even if both are neutral, one could be on the high end and the other on the low end. I think you'd have to do it with recruits that have absolutely no preferences.

I am down to try that if someone wants to.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/1/2017 2:43:00 PM (view original):
My point, mully, was:

1. It was not difficult to knock off a D3 team that was on a D1 player VERY LATE in the process.
2. I didn't even need to use resources THAT I STILL HAD because I have way more because I am D1.

This thread is ridiculous unless you know how much the other guy put in.
There's nothing like making a "conclusion" based off made up evidence.
Find out how much the D3 invested and we can make a fair analysis... but this, I bet it was _____ is nonsense.

Be honest, it was relatively easy for you to knock him off.
AND you have no idea if he invested much.

I"m just curious, where are you finding those percentages?

Posted by Benis on 3/1/2017 4:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by benrudy on 3/1/2017 3:33:00 PM (view original):
I've done a little test/control with a holdout sample between 3 teams. We came out with a 537% advantage between D1 and D3. So for every 1 D1 AP, a D3 team with the same prestige and the same preferences would have to invest 5.37 APs to make the same amount of progress. Granted, there is a pretty sizeable error bar in there since I had to equivalize the preferences and prestige which themselves had some error, but I'm pretty sure its between 450% and 600%. The holdout verified that my results are close but not perfect.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

I'd be careful when you say same preferences. Preferences are granular so even if both are neutral, one could be on the high end and the other on the low end. I think you'd have to do it with recruits that have absolutely no preferences.

yup - great call. Do you know if prestige grades are also granular?

Posted by jcfreder on 3/1/2017 1:57:00 PM (view original):
a B prestige D1 team should have a far, far, far greater advantage than 50% over a B- D3 team. I would be in favor of at least a 10X advantage as a matter of course for D1 vs D3, and probably more.

10X. Wow. That's the biggest sense of entitlement I think I've seen posted in these forums.

Posted by rlharri on 3/1/2017 5:04:00 PM (view original):
I"m just curious, where are you finding those percentages?

After the recruit has signed.

Posted by stewdog on 3/1/2017 4:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/1/2017 2:43:00 PM (view original):
My point, mully, was:

1. It was not difficult to knock off a D3 team that was on a D1 player VERY LATE in the process.
2. I didn't even need to use resources THAT I STILL HAD because I have way more because I am D1.

This thread is ridiculous unless you know how much the other guy put in.
There's nothing like making a "conclusion" based off made up evidence.
Find out how much the D3 invested and we can make a fair analysis... but this, I bet it was _____ is nonsense.

Be honest, it was relatively easy for you to knock him off.
AND you have no idea if he invested much.

I think my analysis is sound. My logic is solid.