Note: Updates for days 12 and 13 are in the posts below.

Ok, so after a long hiatus I am cautiously starting Bubble watches again. As I am in DIAA, that is where its happening. For those not familiar: I will focus primarily on human teams, and I generally look at worst case scenarios first. However, if you are not in the top 40 at this point, then you are probably not on the watch. I have to say, just generally there were a surprising number of human losses to SIM AIs throughout the course of this season. As a consequence there are quite a few SIM AI teams in the 35-45s I will not mention, who just might make it in.
SWAC
Locks:
S. Baton Rouge (11-0, WIS: 12, SOS: 89): It was not an impressive slate of OOC opponents, but SBR has failed to get into trouble anywhere and has no humans left on the schedule.
Work to do:
Alabama State (8-3, WIS: 26, SOS: 42): Looking to make the playoffs with a new coach. Currently things are looking good, but its too early to relax. There is still the game for the division vs SIM Alcorn. A win there would probably leave juuuust enough room that a potential loss in a conference championship might be ok.
Southern Conference
Locks:
Appalachian State (10-1, WIS: 8, SOS: 31): It wasn’t as comfortable as it should have been today, but still App State did what they needed to today.
Work to do:
Furman (8-3 WIS: 30, SOS: 46): A Sim that may or may not make it in. After todays W at 1-2 vs himans and 7-1 vs other SIMs. Tomorrows game vs Citadel could put it to the wrong side tough.
Nichols State (9-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 107): Another Sim with two losses to Sims, but making up for it by being 2-0 vs humans. However the SOS is bad, so a loss before the CC game would likely be problematic.
Tennessee Chattanooga (7-4, WIS: 35, SOS: 33): UTC was right on the bubble and then lost to SIM Nichols state today. Now they need some help to make it back in. winning out is not impossible, but without a few teams falling off the pace, it will likely not be enough.

PFL
Dayton is not on the watch due to 7 losses, even though they all are to top 25 teams (I may be wrong, but I think you can’t get in with a losing record even if you are in the WIS top 32. Drake is a similar case.
Should be in:
VMI (10-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 56): Without that loss to a Sim, VMI would already be a lock. Even so, after todays win over San Diego it is close, as even a loss to Valparaiso wouldn’t really hurt VMI too much, and it would definitely take another loss to a SIM to miss the playoffs.
Work to do:
Valparaiso (8-3, WIS: 23, SOS: 35): Has beaten all its Sim opponents plus Dayton, but also three losses already. With VMI and San Diego still coming up, its not all played for yet. Due to this bubble being reeeeaaallly soft 1-1 may be good enough, but 0-2 sure wouldn’t be.
Coastal Carolina (10-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 118): Now that is what a really overly easy schedule looks like, and I can’t help but think that with Daytons schedule, CCU wouldn’t have more than 3 wins either. I don’t think the game vs Austin Peay on dy 13 is a given, and due to the SOS, a loss there would make this really close for CCU.
OVC
The OVC is very boring bubble wise. It needs more teams. The two human owners only loss is their direct confrontation. Both are at natty contenders as they combine for reaching 9 quarterfinals or better in the last 5 seasons.
Locks:
Iona (11-0, WIS: 2, SOS:30), Samford (10-1, WIS: 9, SOS:26): One loss between them, no humans left to play, SOS good enough, that is what safety looks like.
NEC
Should be in:
Towson (10-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 76): Won the second best game of the day, and by virtue of that can feel fairly safe. Unless there is some surprise loss to a Sim, this should spell safety
Lehigh (10-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 75): Todays loss, hurt for winning the division, but was likely ok playoff wise, as there are really only SIMs left on the schedule, and Lehigh would probably need to lose to both of them to miss the playoffs.
Work to do:
Albany (9-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 90) Took care of all its Sim opponents, that already counts for something this season. If Albany beats the remaining regular season slate vs 2 more Sis, then it should make the field even if it should lose in the CC.
MEAC
The only way anyone from the west gets in, is if they pull a big upset and win the conference championship.
Locks:
Norfolk State (11-0, WIS: 6, SOS: 54): Hasn’t missed the playoffs in the last 58 seasons, and season 116 will not break that trend.
Work to do:
Florida A&M (7-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 32): usually you need pretty good SOS to get in with 4 losses. However the bubble is super soft this season and FA&M still plays Dusquesne on day 13 a SIM with a record good enough it might get in itself if it won out. Still even winning out is not quite a guarantee for FA&M to squeeze into the field, particularly as MOVs are generally not all that great with FA&M.
Ivy League
The Ivy is currently the clearly deepest league in Warner DIAA. 7 (!) bids seems likely, potentially creating lots of recruiting dollars for next season.
Locks:
Pennsylvania (11-0, WIS: 7, SOS: 66) The defending national champion is impeccable and won the game of the day, a proper shootout with 136 points and over 1400 yards of offense. Even losing the two remaining human games would not be a problem.
Harvard (9-2, WIS: 10, SOS: 13): In addition to the tough Ivy league, Harvard played a decentish OOC and beat it. Now despite the loss to day, the SOS is so rock solid, that Harvard is safe even if things went wrong on Monday.
Colgate (9-2, WIS: 3, SOS: 1): Playing the probably hardes schedule of anyone, Colgate is 5-2 vs humans with the losses being to number one NAU and an unbeaten Penn. The division however, is not yet won, with Princeton and Cornell still coming up,
Princeton (9-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 6): Plays Colgate tomorrow, and a win would likely win thee division. Wins over 3 top 30 teams is good enough, that even a loss would not bring them close to missing the playoffs.
Should be in:
Dartmouth (9-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 61): With only the game vs Penn looking a little threatning, it’d take a lot of imagination for Dartmouth to miss the playoffs.
Cornell (8-3, WIS: 20, SOS: 12): Despite 3 losses and a potential 4^th loss still on the slate close to “lock “ status. There is even an outside shot at still winning the division. Unless the SOS take a bigger hit than expected tomorrow, and a really bad loss to Colgate, I don’t see how Cornell could miss the playoffs.
Work to do:
Brown (9-2, WIS: 21, SOS: 58): Close to a “should be in”. There are two tough games vs Harvard and Penn remaining, but at least they should increase the SOS, so even losing twice Brown might make it in. That said, why risk anything? Better to just win one.

Gateway
Locks:
FIU (11-0, WIS: 4, SOS: 39): Needed a 4^th quartr comeback to beat UNI today, but even with a loss would have been safely in the playoffs. That is thanks to a decent OOC. Now to win the conference, it will take a W tomorrow.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Missouri State (9-2, WIS: 18, SOS: 47): Close to “should be in”, however with two games vs good human coaches still coming winning one would be the “prudent” thing to do to be certain about the playoffs. That said, the SOS is likely to improve to where even 4 losses might be ok.
Indiana State (7-4, WIS: 29, SOS: 7) The SOS is okish, but will take hits the next 2 days, which is a problem for a 4 loss team (including one to a SIM). Games like today, trailing at the half to a SIM, don’t help the MOV either. As it is, I tend to think Indiana State might have to win the conference, as a 5^th loss might be too much with the decreasing SOS.
Big Sky
Locks:
Northern Arizona (11-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 18): Beat three good teams in OOC. Plays to wrapm up the division tomorrow.
Cal Poly (10-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 53): Only loss is to #3 Colgate. Even another loss or two would not eat up the margin to the bubble.
Work to do:
Texas State (8-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 34): A Sim with a lot of human recruited talent, managed to beat all the Sims on its sched, and now also a human. With only SIMAis coming up this SIM is a decent bet to make the playoffs. A loss vs one of the remaining SIMs however might take it out after all.
Needs help
Montana State (6-5, WIS: 40, SOS: 25): Todays loss as probably the death knell for Montanas shot at the post season. The only reason to keep them on the board is the theoretical chance to shine vs #1 NAU. But anything short of a complete upset won’t do.
A-10
Locks:
JMU (10-1, WIS: 5,SOS: 14): only SIMs left, a good coach and 5 wins over top 40 teams.
Maine (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 24): It takes more imagination than I have for Maine to miss the playoffs. Something involving a loss to a SIM, a loss in the CC and some more bad luck I think would likely still not be enough.
Should be in:
Villanova (10-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 95): The SOS is not fantastic, but unless Villanova starts losing to SIM AIs, this is safety.
Work to do:
FAU (7-4, WIS: 28, SOS: 11): FAU played a really good schedule, beat a few decent teams and none of its 4 losses Is something to be ashamed about. However, 4-loss teams can’t afford for their SOS to drop too much. FAUs I think will drop a little bit, due to getting bad SIMs at the end. But with the bubble being super soft, winning out vs SIMs is likely just enough. But FAU does need to win out.

Day 12
So here is an update for day 12. As you will see, things are starting to get fairly clear for a lot of teams, which is normal –given that they are either running out of opportunities to impress, or out of opportunities to mess up.
As a side note, this is a reaaly soft bubble, with lots of teams with 5-7 losses in the 32 to 40 ranks, meaning that most teams currently in the top 30 have some margin of error, and even some current bubble teams might make the field without a stellar final flourish.
SWAC
Locks:
S. Baton Rouge (12-0)
Work to do:
Alabama State (9-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 31): Moves up with its W over Alcorn today. A loss in the championship shouldn’t keep them out. However a loss to a SIMAI before could be a problem. That is unlikely tough.
Southern Conference
Locks:
Appalachian State (11-1)
Work to do:
Furman (9-3 WIS: 30, SOS: 57): A Sim that beat the Citadel on a last second field goal today. After todays W at 2-2 vs humans and 7-1 vs other SIMs. If it can beat another Sim tomorrow, this SIM will likely be an easy opponent for somebody in the first round.
Nichols State (10-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 111): Another Sim with two losses and a close win today, but making up for it by being 2-0 vs humans. However Nichols State will likely have to play a CC game and the SOS is bad, so a loss before the CC game would likely be problematic.
Tennessee Chattanooga (8-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 30): Did what it had to today. UTC was right on the bubble, tendency good side, and then lost to SIM Nichols state yesterday. This should be a really close call in the end, but I’d be optimistic.
PFL
Lock:
VMI (10-2, WIS: 17, SOS: 41): Lost the conference today. While that isn’t nice, VMI will still likely make the playoffs, as the WIS ranking took less of a hit than expected, and there won’t be a CC game.
Should be in:
Valparaiso (9-3, WIS: 21, SOS: 33): That was a big win over VMI today. Combine that with a good SOS, and even a 4^th loss, be it tomorrow vs San Diego or on Tuesday in the CC, would likely be ok. Valpo will be the favorite in both.
Work to do:
Coastal Carolina (10-1, WIS: 25, SOS: 117): Took care of business today, but still has Austin Peay tomorrow and will have to play a CC on top of that, meaning there are still two opportunities to lose.I think CCU probably needs to win one of those games to make the tourney.
OVC
Locks:
Iona (12-0), Samford (11-1).
NEC
Locks:
Towson (11-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 76), Lehigh (11-1, WIS: 16, SOS: 75): After taking care of business today, I put both Towson and Lehigh to the lock category, as they are fast running out of opportunities to mess up enough to miss the playoffs.
Should be in:
Albany (10-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 110) Took care of all its Sim opponents, that already counts for something this season. Moves up to should be in, partially because this bubble is hyper soft, partially because a loss tomorrow would at least avoid a CC game, plus the SOS will likely not take anymore hits.
Work to do:
Lafayette (6-6, WIS: 37, SOS: 7) Another SIM AI with a shot, should teams ahead of them mess up.
MEAC
The only way anyone from the west gets in, is if they pull a big upset and win the conference championship. The opportunity will either be with Bethune Cookman, or with SIM Morgan State, who play a sort of Conference championship semifinal tomorrow.
Locks:
Norfolk State (11-0).
Work to do:
Florida A&M (8-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 38): Did something for its MOV today, but lost on the SOS front. Usually you need pretty good SOS to get in with 4 losses. However the bubble is super soft this season and FA&M still plays Dusquesne on day 13 a SIM with a record good enough it might get in itself if it won out. I think it will be enough, but winning tomorrow is not quite a guarantee for FA&M to squeeze into the field.
Ivy League
The Ivy is currently the clearly deepest league in Warner DIAA. 7 (!) bids seems likely, potentially creating lots of recruiting dollars for next season.
Locks:
Pennsylvania (12-0), Harvard (10-2), Colgate (10-2), Princeton (9-3)
Dartmouth (10-2, WIS: 23, SOS: 80): Took care of business today, and any loss vs Penn tomorrow would at least partially be offset by a gain in SOS.
Cornell (9-3, WIS: 19, SOS: 12): Despite 3 losses and a potential 4^th loss Cornell now has “lock “ status. A W tomorrow would even win the division!
Should be in:
Brown (9-3, WIS: 22, SOS: 58): Took quite a pasting from Penn today, which may make things more interesting than Brown would like. Still with loads of other teams being less than impressive Brown should be in anyway. That said, just to make absolutely certain, better avoid a pasting like today when playing Harvard tomorrow.
Work to do:

Gateway
Locks:
FIU (12-0)
Missouri State (9-3, WIS: 20, SOS: 29): Missed a chance to get to safety, but at least the loss to FIU was very close. It was close enough that a loss tomorrow vs NIU would be ok.
Should be in:
Work to do:
Indiana State (8-4, WIS: 29, SOS: 17) Took care of business and helped the MOV vs a 1-11 Sim today. The SOS is okish, took a hit today and will again tomorrow, which is a problem for a 4 loss team (including one to a SIM). As it is, I tend to think Indiana State might have to win the conference, as a 5^th loss might be too much with the decreasing SOS. Then again this bubble is so soft, thry might make it in anyway.
Big Sky
After todays loss, I took Montana off the board.
Locks:
Northern Arizona (12), Cal Poly (11-1).
Work to do:
Texas State (9-3, WIS: 27, SOS: 51): A Sim with a lot of human recruited talent, managed to beat all the Sims on its sched, and also one human. If TxState beats another SIM tomorrow, it will likely make the field.

A-10
Locks:
JMU (11-1), Maine (10-2)
Villanova (11-1, WIS: 18, SOS: 101): Beat a Sim today. The SOS is not fantastic, but even an unlikely loss tomorrow would not cost 14 spots
Should be in:
Work to do:
FAU (8-4, WIS: 28, SOS: 13): FAU played a really good schedule, beat a few decent teams and none of its 4 losses Is something to be ashamed about. Despite another potential small drop in SOS, FAU is currently looking on pace to make the field. However it cannot afford an upset tomorrow.

Nice write-up dachmann! I agree with your assessment of my CCU team. The SOS is purely a result of me forgetting to schedule my non-con. I look forward to reading more of these in the future!

Day 13
Well, emm. Of 6 teams ranked between 32 and 37, 4 lost. This means that teams that were already on the bubble might have lost today and make it in anyway. A lot more teams sowed up their bid today. If the bubble was soft before, then it is complete mush now.
SWAC
Locks:
S. Baton Rouge (13-0)
Should be in:
Alabama State (10-3, WIS: 23, SOS: 41): With the bubble being soft like mush, Alabama State is essentially safe, despite a possible 4^th loss tomorrow
Southern Conference
Locks:
Appalachian State (12-1)
Should be in:
Furman (10-3 WIS: 29, SOS: 64): This is likely another SIM that will make it in unless some weird bid stealing etc happens. After all, this team is 2-2 vs humans and 8-1 vs other SIMs. Not playing a CC is an advantage here.
Work to do:
Nichols State (11-2, WIS: 31, SOS: 112): Everyone else on the bubble losing might have given SIM AI Nichols a tiny bit of margin, but I don’t think it is enough, even tough the WIS ranking step from 32^nd to 33^rd is pretty big right now.. I think a clear loss tomorrow would likely end their season. Bubble teams everywhere will be rooting against Nichols and for App State.
Tennessee Chattanooga (9-4, WIS: 32, SOS: 30): Just not messing up was a good step in the right direction today. Despite an earlier loss to a SIM, UTC is now back to the right side of the bubble. But it is not comfortable, and some sweating is in order. Still I would be optimistic if I were Deaco.
Needs help:
Prairie View (9-4, WIS: 37, SOS: 108): A Sim with an outside shot.
PFL
I still don’t have Dayton in, because I believe you can’t get in with a losing reecord no matter the ranking. But if I am wrong about that, then Dayton has a chance.
Lock:
VMI (11-2)
Valparaiso (10-3, WIS: 19, SOS: 24): Won the conference division today, and is now on its way to a potential 4 seed.
Coastal Carolina (12-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 118): Beating Austin Peay should be enough to go fairly comfortably into tomorrows CC game.
OVC
Well looky there, the bubble turning to mucsh, made me feel at least a little bit thrilled about the OVC part of the bubble watch
Locks:
Iona (13-0), Samford (12-1).
Needs help:
Murray State (10-3, WIS: 36,SOS: 117): Put on, because of the crazy things happening ahead of them. Another SIM with a shot. It may actually not be that far fetched, given that the 30ieth and 31^st team might lose tomorrow, and one team ahead of them has a losing record.
NEC
Due to their 7^th loss I took Lafayette off the board.
Locks:
Towson (12-1).
Should be in:
Albany (11-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 107) Took care of all its Sim opponents, that already counts for something this season. The SOS is still bad. But at least it should improve tomorrow, even in the case of a loss.
MEAC
Locks:
Norfolk State (13-0).
Work to do:
Florida A&M (8-5, WIS: 34, SOS: 32): Ouch. A loss to SIM AI when you are square on the bubble is exactly the way to miss the playoffs. No team hurt itself more today than FAU. Then again nobody may profit more from the failures of the teams behind them. FAU doesn’t have it in its own hands, but hope hasn’t completely vanished yet. Actually, with Nichols and Indiana State playing tomorrow, there is still a realistic chance FAU could get in. Then again the difference to either of those teams is 5 WIS ranking points or more, so even if they lose they may not fall far enough.
Autobid only:
Morgan State (8-5, WIS: 60, SOS: 119): A SIM AI with a theoretical shot at an autobid. Practically they will be rolled by Norfolk State.
Ivy League
The Ivy is currently the clearly deepest league in Warner DIAA. 7 (!) bids seems almost a certainty. There will be lots of recruiting dollars for next season.
Locks:
Pennsylvania (13-0), Harvard (11-2), Colgate (11-2), Princeton (10-3), , Cornell (10-3)
Brown (9-4, WIS: 22, SOS: 23): At least the loss was not as clear as yesterday. With other teams doing bad again, and the SOS having made real strides, I think Brown is now safe anyway
Should be in:
Dartmouth (10-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 70): The loss to Penn was pretty bad. Moreover the SOS did not improve as much as I thought. As a consequence I am doing something I don’t usually like to do: Move a team back from lock status. Still, overall Dartmouth is likely to make the field.
Gateway
Locks:
FIU (13-0), Missouri State (9-4)
Should be in:
Work to do:
Indiana State (8-4, WIS: 30, SOS: 19) Another win, that didn’t hold the SOS up to the decent OOC Indiana played (but also lost to a SIM). As it is, I tend to think Indiana State might have to win the conference. A 5^th loss might be too much with the decreasing SOS. Then again this bubble is so soft, they might make it in anyway. But keeping at least close vs FIU is absolutely indispensable.
Big Sky
Locks:
Northern Arizona (13-0), Cal Poly (12-1).
Texas State (10-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 48): Considering the human recruited talent, it shouldn’t surprised that this SIM is the best of them all. Having beaten all its SIM opponents plus a human, it will likely make the field likely even with a 6 seed, probably making a 3 seed happy.
A-10
Locks:
JMU (12-1), Maine (11-2), Villanova (12-1)
Should be in:
FAU (9-4, WIS: 27, SOS: 15): Having run out of opportunities to mess up, FAU got to a fairly good position, despite 4 losses. That is because FAU played a really good schedule, beat a few decent teams and none of its 4 losses Is something to be ashamed about.

Posted by matthewm3 on 3/5/2017 10:43:00 PM (view original):
Nice write-up dachmann! I agree with your assessment of my CCU team. The SOS is purely a result of me forgetting to schedule my non-con. I look forward to reading more of these in the future!

Thanks. All positive reinforcement is necessary to keep me motivated

Great stuff Dachmann! Thanks for putting that together.

Yeah this is a fun read. The Ivy League schedule keeps my attention during the season so it's nice to see what's going on in other conferences. Thanks Dachmann!