Isenhour (on the fence), Williams(on the fence), Gridley (likely staying). I had 40 ap, first session and I replaced the player who was leaving (1 scholly). With about one day left, once I had signed my new player, I started building efforts with 20 ap on a late player (could not get to give a scholly). I decided Williams (guard) was the most likely to leave since he was on the board as a soph also.

This is dumb.

How am I suppose to accept my team goes from a potential NT contender to a pretender? What's the strat if your faith is a random thing?

I could accept this random if I had a chance to prepare for it. I don't. I won't be able to build any traction to more than one player...

Fix this. And face the facts, it's killing the game and the fun of the game.

totally agree

to me, the issue is the total randomness. while of course you can prepare if it says they are "going" or "likely going" and you can try to prep backups for "on the fence" guys, it's just impossible to plan for "likely staying" or off the board guys going. there is no strategy in it. it's random luck.

unlike recruiting where people unfairly call it a coin flip, here you don't have any real influence.* it's truly just random. even the influence of postseason success is a mystery--I've seen NC teams retain most of their potential EEs, whereas I've seen R32 or S16 teams lose surprise EEs.

*except to not recruit them and have a crappy D1 team, which some people seem to think is the solution

Posted by zorzii on 3/13/2017 7:48:00 AM (view original):
Isenhour (on the fence), Williams(on the fence), Gridley (likely staying). I had 40 ap, first session and I replaced the player who was leaving (1 scholly). With about one day left, once I had signed my new player, I started building efforts with 20 ap on a late player (could not get to give a scholly). I decided Williams (guard) was the most likely to leave since he was on the board as a soph also.

This is dumb.

How am I suppose to accept my team goes from a potential NT contender to a pretender? What's the strat if your faith is a random thing?

I could accept this random if I had a chance to prepare for it. I don't. I won't be able to build any traction to more than one player...

Fix this. And face the facts, it's killing the game and the fun of the game.

If my math is right, you still have 8 returning players on your potential NT contender.

When you recruited those 3 did you think they had the potential to declare early?

It should be noted that supersloth pointed out that top 26 at their position when recruited are the ones declaring early. You have a 5, 5, 3.

Did SS discover something that was previously unknown?

How many EE's are there, on average, in real life?

How many EE's are there, on average, in HD?

Does anybody have these numbers?

I did no verification but someone posted 29 in HD(average over several worlds), 57 in NCAA in 2016.

If you look at the Big Board in Smith, you'll see that 5 of the 100 are sim school players. The other 95 are split between 41 users. If you remove the guys with only 1, you're looking at around 80 for 25 users. The users get virtually all of the top players so the users get hit with multiple EE.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/13/2017 9:52:00 AM (view original):
How many EE's are there, on average, in real life?

How many EE's are there, on average, in HD?

Does anybody have these numbers?

1) doesn't matter
2) doesn't matter
3) who cares

This is about fixing an issue that does nothing but frustrate owners and drive users away.

So is this one of those issues where "realism" isn't a consideration?

Posted by mullycj on 3/13/2017 10:11:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 3/13/2017 9:52:00 AM (view original):
How many EE's are there, on average, in real life?

How many EE's are there, on average, in HD?

Does anybody have these numbers?

1) doesn't matter
2) doesn't matter
3) who cares

This is about fixing an issue that does nothing but frustrate owners and drive users away.

1) Yeah, it should matter.
2) Yeah, it should matter.
3) I care. That's why I asked the question.

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/13/2017 10:08:00 AM (view original):
If you look at the Big Board in Smith, you'll see that 5 of the 100 are sim school players. The other 95 are split between 41 users. If you remove the guys with only 1, you're looking at around 80 for 25 users. The users get virtually all of the top players so the users get hit with multiple EE.

Interesting numbers.

So all the best players are going to a relatively small handful of schools. And the best of the best become EE's and leave. And the relatively small group of coaches that are affected are crying abut it.

Seems like this is a self-inflicted problem, when you step back and look at the big picture.

To be fair, all of us want the best players we can get. But a different approach might be required. As I said, zorzi had #5, 5 and 3 at their positions when he recruited them. IMO, there has to be a reasonable expectation that all will declare early. You can roll the dice and hope they don't do it the same season. Or, after you've recruited a 5 and 3, leave that other 5 alone and go after #27(since supersloth reported that all EE were #26 or better). Obviously #27 isn't nearly as good as #5 but the previous EE indicate he'll stay 4 seasons.

Exactly.

I'm guessing that John Calipari is not throwing verbal tantrums on UK message boards when he loses a couple of one-and-done freshman after a good season. He knew what he was likely getting when he recruited them.

This still comes down to a simple cost benefit analysis issue. There are costs and benefits of taking the stud 4 or 5 star recruit that is certain to leave early. And there are costs and benefits of taking the more modest, or possibly crappy, player that we all know will stay for four LONG seasons.

The argument for "fixing" the EE issue still comes down to saying the benefit for taking the EE caliber player isn't decisive enough and should be *more* clear and provide still *greater* benefit than it currently does.

Essentially you're going out and willingly paying market price for a luxury product and then sending the retailer and manufacturer letters saying "I really like your product but the price is too high ... fix it" as you walk up to the counter and buy two more at the market price.

At the end of the day if you're willing to pay the market price for a product because it's still the *better* value and alternative (in your own mind) then the price probably isn't too high.

This is why I left DI. The argument is to recruit worse players? That is what you should do when you get EEs, is make your team worse? If you don't see why this is stupid, I don't even know what to say, other than I'm becoming convinced Mike is in some way compensated by WIS for positive comments.