Does anyone have insight into what drives the likelihood of an EE? It it based purely on ratings or does statistical performance play into it?

ratings maybe plus All American status and for sure plus how deep your team goes in postseason

stats dont matter except that they can affect All Americans which MAY have an effect

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/15/2017 2:01:00 PM (view original):
It's purely random and the best users in HD can't figure it out. Most are surprised when they get one.











I'm kidding. Far more experienced users in D1 have a better feel. I guess. They can give you a real answer. What I said is sarcasm but it's developed from some truth IF I'm to believe the people complaining about EE.

Let's crush some ees. It's total random with predefinite odds.

Likely staying 10-20% going
On the fence : sure 50%
Likely going : 80-90 going

Off the list going : 1%

These are my odds.

And as what decides why they are likely going, on the fence or likely staying, no idea... I saw a 988 jr, #3 overall at C, with 100, 100, 99, 96 : ath, def, blk, reb more than ready for the nba being on the fence.

This is a little out of the box but I've never seen it mentioned.

Has anyone tracked recruiting preferences and EE? Maybe "near home" guys stay. Or the "strong D" guys go when the team isn't that strong on D. Or the "wants rebuild" are more likely to move on when the team reaches S16 back to back. Stuff like that.

Is there any connection? Does anyone know?

once upon a time - when there were scouting reports and the legacy of dilemmas, a guy who was in it for the money was more likely to leave EE - that went away long ago

currently, some EEs are easy to predict and some are - as noted - harder to predict. When a team has say three guys on the fence it can be very hard to guess which will actually go

It's based on probability. The exact calculations have not been disclosed. I think it is based mostly on ratings, with certain "core" ratings weighing more. As mamxet noted, post-season runs certainly have an effect, player awards probably also do. The better the player, the more likely he is to go. If your player projects to 90+ in what you'd consider the cores for his position and 800 OVR before the end of his junior year, you shouldn't be surprised when he considers leaving early.

It isnt determined by the players rank overall or by position coming out of HS, but those aspects are highly correlative with the player ending up on the big board prior to his senior season, so it's a decent rule of thumb. Not all players in the top 20 per class/position will end up on the big board prior to their senior year, but it is very rare to see players not in the top 20 per class/position considering a jump (assuming the player wasn't redshirted).

Posted by mamxet on 3/15/2017 4:44:00 PM (view original):
once upon a time - when there were scouting reports and the legacy of dilemmas, a guy who was in it for the money was more likely to leave EE - that went away long ago

currently, some EEs are easy to predict and some are - as noted - harder to predict. When a team has say three guys on the fence it can be very hard to guess which will actually go

this, exactly what we've been saying that seems just impossible to grasp for some people

Not "exactly" but that argument has been done. "Exactly" is VERY precise, just for future reference.

Posted by bathtubhippo on 3/15/2017 6:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mamxet on 3/15/2017 4:44:00 PM (view original):
once upon a time - when there were scouting reports and the legacy of dilemmas, a guy who was in it for the money was more likely to leave EE - that went away long ago

currently, some EEs are easy to predict and some are - as noted - harder to predict. When a team has say three guys on the fence it can be very hard to guess which will actually go

this, exactly what we've been saying that seems just impossible to grasp for some people

"some people" grasp what you've been saying. "Some people" also grasp probabilities, and not exacts, and the likelihood the former is part of the game and the latter was specifically discarded from the game.

I will be more cautious but one thing I noticed about my likely staying is that his stock rose throughout the season and he was 34 predicted when it left. He was just a soph though. My other PF, with higher rating dropped a lot... yet he left.

So here is an hypothesis: the higher you are on the draft board, your odds to leave increase slightly with prolly 40 being the cutoff. And if you win ct awards, nt awards, it also has a slight impact.

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/15/2017 4:11:00 PM (view original):
This is a little out of the box but I've never seen it mentioned.

Has anyone tracked recruiting preferences and EE? Maybe "near home" guys stay. Or the "strong D" guys go when the team isn't that strong on D. Or the "wants rebuild" are more likely to move on when the team reaches S16 back to back. Stuff like that.

Is there any connection? Does anyone know?

Nothing?

Does than mean it's been checked and it's a complete bullshit correlation? Or that it's never been considered?

There's no connection.

I have not checked, but a connection would surprise me

Not enough 3.0 seasons really to track that for a large sample - even if folks keep track of that