Well, obviously, Bob. We all know that. But how big is it?

I recently lost a battle for an OL. Now admittedly, I'm coaching at a mid major, so there is the double advantage Elite > BCS > MidMajor. And frankly, I wouldn't normally have fought with an elite over a recruit - but I had most of my class already committed, and a wad of cash left over, so I thought I'd give it a go.

I spent $52K for on the player. The elite? $14K.

But wait. We all know it's not how much you spend, it's the LEVEL of EFFORT.

For my $52K I put in 7 AC Scouts, 7 HC Scouts, 1 AC Home Visit, 45 Campus Visits, Guaranteed Freshman Start, and Guaranteed 75% PT. All accepted. Plus, a smattering of AC/HC phone calls and letters.

The Elite? 1 AC Scout. 17 CVs.

So, I spent basically TRIPLE the effort. Maybe more than triple, depending on how much a FR Start and PT are actually worth. And lost.

Now, I'm not complaining. If I were a high school football player, Northern Illinois would not be near the top of my wish list, especially compared to an elite program. But I might as well sit out the first day of recruiting and let the big boys play.

I belive at a midmajor you should should sit out first cycle and the BCS and Elites take first Crack at guys. You know this though.

Yeah, I feel your pain, Bob. But in real life, if Northern Illinois courted a 4 or 5 star player like that, but Alabama called him and said they'd give him a scholarship to come play with them, where is he going to go? That was a losing battle right out of the gate.

Posted by bjschumacher on 3/17/2017 9:49:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, I feel your pain, Bob. But in real life, if Northern Illinois courted a 4 or 5 star player like that, but Alabama called him and said they'd give him a scholarship to come play with them, where is he going to go? That was a losing battle right out of the gate.

In real life no one would hire me to be a college football coach (except maybe U of A) and we aren't aware of this multidimensional universe where can coach the same team in different worlds. Real life blows sometimes.

It is interesting to see the difference in effort. I've spent that kind of money at a BCS school and lost to an elite before too... don't know what his "effort" looked like though.

Once when I was at Memphis, I had to spend $325,000 on a TE to sign him away from Alabama. Of course we didn't have the cap on recruiting money back then so it was obviously different than now.....

Posted by bjschumacher on 3/17/2017 9:49:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, I feel your pain, Bob. But in real life, if Northern Illinois courted a 4 or 5 star player like that, but Alabama called him and said they'd give him a scholarship to come play with them, where is he going to go? That was a losing battle right out of the gate.

But it's not real life, it's not football, it's not human kids being offered a scholly at some football factory. It's a spreadsheet. It's numbers and formulas and calculations and weighted factors.

As I noted in my post, I'm not complaining about losing the player. I'm pointing out that my effort at a D1A Mid Major is worth 1/3 or less the effort of an Elite school.

That's a lot more difference than I would have thought.
I wish that there were some way to parlay a winning history into an effect on recruiting.
Thus a mid major who had consistent winning seasons and good bowl trips would be higher than a power 5 with losing seasons and no bowl trips.
HD has something like this and you see mid major programs who grow close to elite status.

I am curious, how did you know how much the elite spent or the effort expended?

I don't have any real data to back this up...it's just what I've seen. However, I believe in terms of prestige, most mid-majors are essentially 1AA teams but just with more money. The argument to that would be that mid-majors can, and often do, sign top 10-15 recruits but I think that is due to 1AA having limited vision (even for the best team) and 1A having unlimited vision. Point being, if an elite spent 15k on a player and a 1AA school spent 50k on the same player, you would expect him to sign with the elite program right?

Of course, some the prestige factor may have to do with recent success of both the elite and mid-major program. If we're talking about a successful Army program competing with Michigan squad that hasn't won a level five game in ten seasons or more, the advantage is probably smaller.

Again, if someone has data to disprove that theory, jump on it. I'm not saying that's 100% correct or anything...just an observation more or less.

Early effort > late effort

Early effort > late effort

I think this is many times an overlooked item. The balancing act is how much to you push out early vs. hold back for defense.

nitros

Posted by howarddv on 3/17/2017 10:31:00 AM (view original):
Once when I was at Memphis, I had to spend $325,000 on a TE to sign him away from Alabama. Of course we didn't have the cap on recruiting money back then so it was obviously different than now.....

At Penn State in Dobie, I once battled Boston College for a "5-Star" type RB. Again, before rollover money was capped. I spent $465k on him and won early on the final day of recruiting. I shudder to think what BC spent (and lost), because my PSU prestige was off-the-charts.

Posted by awags on 3/17/2017 2:57:00 PM (view original):
Early effort > late effort

Although I know the answer is "nobody knows for sure" I wonder how much difference this makes? 5% ? 10%?

Elites also have prestige advantages over other elites. (with everything else being equal) -->When you win a NC you can send less CV's than the other elite. Your CV's are worth more then the other elite's EVEN if the ac phone call reveals that the other elite is the recruit's favorite school. This may be D1's version of the 3 year vision average.

Also, elite over bcs roughly 15%, over mid major roughly 30%.