Ok, I managed to find the time for a bubble watch. I hope you will find it enjoyable.
SWAC
The SWAC really shot itself in the foot with losses to SIM AIs today. And somehow the punishment in the rankings was minimal. ASU even improved its WiS ranking!
Should be in:
S. Baton Rouge (10-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 74):Inexplicably lost to a SIM today. The really inexplicable part however is, for that to happento a teeam that is still ranked this high. Might have to do with wins over the other human teams in conference. SBR beat a noname OOC, while not always impressing vs SIM AIs. That said, the SOS is not completely horrible and there is also the wins over Alabama State and GSU, meaning, that SBR should be in unless things go wrong against SIMs again.
Work to do:
Alabama State (9-2, WIS: 24, SOS: 92): Played an even worse OOC than SBR (SIM AIs with worse records) and then lost to SBR and today lost to a SIM when only scoring 12 points. And yet, ASU is still likely to make the playoffs! But at least ASU still needs to take care of the remaining SIMs before feeling safety no more **** ups.
Needs help:
Grambling State (7-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 56): Mudhogs new project included a nice win over the Citadel. Alas, that is more than set off by losses to three different SIMs. Unless Teams fall off the pace elsewhere, it will take another season of building for GSU to make the playoffs.
Southern Conference
Locks:
Appalachian State (10-1, WIS: 5, SOS: 19): If they hadn’t already been safe before todays win over the Citadel, then ASU would be now. A loss to Cal Poly is more than offset by 5 wins over top 40 teams.
Work to do:
Tennessee Chattanooga (8-3, WIS: 37, SOS: 100): Is 0-2 vs likely playoff bound humans, which in itself would be a minor problem, but that loss to a SIM yesterday really dented UTC chances at an at large. It could still, happen, but its not particularly likely should they lose in the CC.
The Citadel (7-4 WIS: 36, SOS: 41): It was a pretty tough OOC schedule, alas Citadel failed to come away with a signature win. Todays loss to ASU was understandable, but represents another failed opportunity. Chances for the Citadel are starting to shrink, particularly as the SOS is about to get worse.
PFL
Should be in:
Valparaiso (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 26): Completely turned around its SDU game today by clamping down on defense. Valpo had a pretty interesting OOC, with two losses, but has also already some decent wins over top 40 teams Citadel, VMI and CCU. Unless there are multiple losses to SIM AIs in the remaining schedule, Valpo will make the team.
Work to do:
VMI (7-4, WIS: 33, SOS: 27): VMI could miss the playoffs for the first time in 34 seasons. That said, despite 4 losses VMI is not completely out of the playoffs yet as all of those losses are vs potential playoff teams. However playing a bad sim tomorrow will not help, and beating San Diego on Monday is a must to keep a shot.
Coastal Carolina (7-4, WIS: 30, SOS: 22): Also got burnt a bit by a tough OOC slate, as all 4 losses are vs top 20 teams. There are however also 2 wins over human top 40 teams, which has put CCU straight on the bubble for now. Beat AP tomorrow and CCU might cross to the good side for the moment. Whether the margin will be enough to survive a potential loss in a rematch with Valpo? I am cautiously optimistic.
San Diego (7-4, WIS: 39, SOS: 17): SDU is not completely out of this, but after todays loss, things are starting to slip away a bit. The SOS is likely to hold up or improve tough. But that is also because the remaining games vs VMI and Dayton are no gimmes, and SDU needs them both. Scheduling tough led to 2 wins over likely playoff teams. On the losses side, the one to Austin Peay hurts right now.
Needs help:
Austin Peay (7-4, WIS: 46, SOS: 38): When you got 5 lossees and your SOS is not inside the top ten, then playing a human opponent with a decent record is not a problem, it is an opportunity. But even if AP can beat CCU, I still think they are unlikely to cross all the way to the good side of the bubble. This team likely needs to win the conference to get to the dance.
OVC
Locks:
Iona (10-1, WIS: 13, SOS:70): Since a close loss Norfolk State at the start of the season, this has been fairly uneventful for Iona, who played some of the better SIMs and VMI, and would likely be in, even with some surprising losses to SIM AIs.
Should be in:
Samford (11-0, WIS: 16, SOS:117): Beat Texas State to open the season, and has played really nobody since. That said, when you are unbeaten at this point in the season things would have to go weirdly wrong to miss the playoffs.
NEC
Locks:
Albany (10-1, WIS: 7, SOS: 36) Considering Albany played 4 potential going 3-1 vs humans was pretty good.
Should be in:
Towson (10-1, WIS: 17, SOS: 82): Lost a close one, and beat up on a lot of cupcakes otherwise. Still the record is decent and the SOS not as horrible as one would think, and at this point Towson might get in even if they lost both remaining games.
Work to do:
Lehigh (9-2, WIS: 26, SOS: 104): Lehigh has one signature win, over PSU, but also a bad loss to SIM AI Bucknell. But because the bubble is soft, Lehigh is still right in this. However Towson will visit on Monday, and that Lehigh could afford a loss there and still make the playoffs is not a given.
MEAC
Should be in:
Norfolk State (9-2, WIS: 8, SOS: 10): Despite 2 losses Norfolk State is pretty much a lock. The losses, both to top ten teams are outweighted by wins over 4 top 40 teams including Iona. That said, the remaining two games include Florida A&M and one of the better SIMs.
Work to do:
Howard (8-3. WIS: 21, SOS: 45): Coachron’s new project might make the playoffs, however if it fails to do so, then that is due to the loss to SIM AI Delaware State a few days ago. Right now winning out is unlikely to move the needle much, and a loss in a CC game could hurt. But there might also be other teams that can’t quite keep up, so Howards chances are not all that bad.
Needs help
Florida A&M (6-5, WIS: 44, SOS: 28): A nice win over Montana State is outweighed by 2 losses to SIM AIs. At this point FAM needs to pull of the upset over Norfolk tomorrow and hope other teams make space. Todays W over LaSalle was a good start.
Ivy League
Locks:
Pennsylvania (11-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 1): The defending natty champ beat 2 top ten and 6 more top 30 teams. But winning the conference this time, will be an important goal.
Colgate (9-2, WIS: 6, SOS: 6): With this rock hard schedule, 2 losses is not really a big blemish, as this kind of SOS allows much records to get in.
Should be in:
Brown (9-2, WIS: 11, SOS: 2): Three losses is not nothing, but 4800 passing yards also allowed for 6 wins over potential playoff teams including Colgate. Moreover a loss to Penn on Monday would likely not hurt much, given that it would uphold the SOS nicely.
Work to do:
Cornell (8-3, WIS: 20, SOS: 5): Cornell is in a good position, having beaten 2 good teams in OOC and further improved the SOS by the Ivy league schedule. A fourth loss to Fordham tomorrow would be unlikely to be a problem, but losing to a SIM on the last day would be a bad idea. That is very unlikely to happen tough.
Fordham (9-2, WIS: 22, SOS: 46): Beating Princeton today was a big step toward the playoffs. Even a loss to Cornell tomorrow would likely be sustainable. That said, due to Fordhams cupcake OOC, that is not a complete certainty.
Harvard (8-3, WIS: 23, SOS: 33): Harvard has nice wins over Princeton, and Brown. The bad news is that todays loss killed some margin for error. And with Dartmouth coming in tomorrow some work remains, as it is likely, but not a given, that Harvard could afford to lose another game.
Princeton (7-4, WIS: 27, SOS: 13): Princeton hasn’t beaten a human opponent in the Ivy league yet. And the defense had some real struggles, giving up more than 50 points 3 times. However, with the bubble being soft and the Ivy improving the SOS, Princeton still has a decent chane to make the playoffs. However a fifth loss to Fordham on Monday, would put them square on the bubble, tendency bad side, as the SOS has to be reaally good to get in with 5, and Princetons might not be good enough what with playing a 2-9 SIM tomorrow.
Dartmouth (7-4, WIS: 31, SOS: 24): Despite numerous opportunities, Dartmouth hasn’t really beaten anyone yet. The Ivy kept the SOS in a place where 4 losses is not a death sentence, but tomorrow game vs Harvard looms large and is likely a must win for Dartmouth.
Gateway
Locks:
FIU (10-1, WIS: 3, SOS: 14): Beat several top 30 teams and has no bad losses. Will play Missouri State for conference supremacy tomorrow.
Should be in:
Missouri State (9-2, WIS: 19, SOS: 49): Two losses to top 20 teams are made up for by 3 wins over potential playoff teams. The SOS is in a place where 3 losses would not be a problem, and FIU will only improve the SOS tomorrow.
Work to do:
Indiana State (10-1, WIS: 21, SOS: 89) Barely escaped a SIM in overtime today. That said the only loss so far is to FIU and there is a nice W over Montana State. But tomorrows game vs YSU is a test, and if ISU should lose, the margin to the bubble could get fairly small.
Northern Iowa (9-2, WIS: 25, SOS: 102): Todays loss to FIU didn’t help things, but the good news is that thanks to aan earlier win over YSU, NIU already had some cushion, and if they can beat the remaining SIM AIs, they are likely to make the field.
Youngstown State (8-3, WIS: 35, SOS: 78): If YSU misses the playoffs, the loss to (a decent) SIM at the beginning of the season might be to blame. Tha said, YSU has only played to non-SIMS and lost both games with offensive troubles, despite a good defense. If YSU want to have any shot at making the playoffs, the offense will have to come to live tomorrow vs Indiana State.
Big Sky
Locks:
Northern Arizona (10-1, WIS: 4, SOS: 25): Put 111 points on TSU today (!). Th only loss is to Penn, which is nothing to be ashamed off.
Cal Poly (10-1, WIS: 13, SOS: 53): Will make the playoffs for the third time in a row, thanks to an OOC that had 3 really nice wins.
Work to do:
Montana State (7-4, WIS: 40, SOS: 25): Montana State played an interesting OOC, and went 2-3, which was not stellar, but then beat Cal Poly to get back into the playoff race. 4 losses means you need your SOS to hold up, and the remaining schedule might not be helpful, but if the bubble remains softish as it looks now, Montana likely gets in if they win out. First need to take care of Texas State tough.
Portland State (8-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 42): Also played an interesting OOC and fared a bit better than Montana. Losses to NAU and Cal Poly are forgiveable, and if PSU beats the remaining SIM AIs, then that is likely to get in, even if the margin will not be super wide.
A-10
Locks:
JMU (10-1, WIS: 5,SOS: 14): Lyonnzfans nwew project is starting to hit on all zylinders. Only playing Penn was to hard for now.
Villanova (10-1, WIS: 19, SOS: 95): Currently 2-0 vs humans, 0-1 vs superhumans (Penn), with a decentish SOS. Playing for seeding and conference supremacy tomorrow vs JMU.
FAU (10-1, WIS: 12, SOS: 55): Beat its Floridian competition in OOC, and lost a good game to Villanova. Tomorrows game vs Maine should be as interesting as it gets when playing a SIM. That said, the margin for error is too big for FAU to miss out even if things were to go south.
Should be in:
Maine (9-2, WIS: 15, SOS: 24): This is what happens when a team with great talent (made the national championship game last season) gets left without a coach: it becomes a really dangerous SIM. Mainee lost to the number 1 and 2 teams and handily beat the remainder of its all SIM AI schedule. Unless there is a couple of losses to Sim Hofstra and FAU in the next two days, this SIM will make the playoffs for sure.