This is my first 16x16 league, although I’ve participated in two 12x12s recently. It’s pretty remarkable how different the strategies are between the two.
I nominated Dave Henderson based on the fact that his cheapest season (1986 BoSox) is super-cheap, and he has two excellent teammates in Clemens and Boggs. This gave me the first pick in the first round. Unfortunately the start of the draft snuck up on me before I had a chance to set up my spreadsheet, so I was kind of flying blind with my first pick.
Round 1 – 1996 Alex Rodriguez
After doing some initial research, I narrowed my selection down to ’85 Fernando and ’96 A-Rod. I decided against Fernando because, while Hershiser would be a nice get, there are other equally good teammates available, and Fernando isn’t THAT much better than nominated players that I could get later in the draft. I mean he’s definitely better than my 11
th round pick, 1947 Masterson, but is he 10 rounds better? Looking at the overall talent available, I thought that this is going to be an offensive league where home run power would definitely play, but with all the wasted salary I probably couldn’t afford both a great offense and great pitching, so I figured I might as well try to have the best offense possible. I decided that to have an elite offense with eight elite offensive players I could only afford one additional pitcher teammate besides Clemens, because A-Rod was the only elite offensive nominee available. I also needed to ensure that I got a shortstop A-Rod because I already had Boggs at 3B, so I decided to use the first overall pick on him. He came with an excellent centerfielder in Griffey and a very elite offensive (albeit crappy defensive) 1B in Edgar Martinez. This got me halfway to a full, high-powered offense, with SS and 3B already spoken for. At this point I was thinking about throwing caution to the wind and using Coors Field, I was so giddy with excitement about my offense. More on that later.
Round 2 – 1998 Luis Castillo
In my quest for an elite offense, I still needed two corner outfielders plus a second baseman and a catcher. Obviously the latter two are more scarce. With plenty of good pitching teammates still available, I decided to once again go offense with this pick. I considered the 2000 Luis Castillo, which would’ve enabled me to use a third pitching teammate, but I decided against it because I didn’t consider him to be good enough offensively to fit in with my offense, and I wasn’t sure I’d be able to afford three pitching teammates anyway with the caliber of offense I wanted. Given what happened later perhaps I should have gone with 2000 Castillo, but based on what I knew at the time this decision made sense. I got an excellent offensive catcher in Piazza (whose throwing arm is lousy, but I don’t think there’ll be all that much running in this league, and in Coors I almost hope people run on me) with a cheap teammate who would allow me to gain back a few draft spots that I lost with the A-Rod pick.
Round 3 – 2004 Andy Pettitte
At this point there were still plenty of good pitching teammates available, so I decided to grab another good offensive player while taking a relatively cheap, relatively usable version of a player who has a whole lot of more expensive, less useful versions. I’ve always loved Lance Berkman’s switch-hitting affordability with a normalized .316/.448/.545 slashline. I still like this pick.
Round 4 – 2009 Juan Uribe
The eternal struggle in drafts such as this lies in balancing what pick would make one’s team better with what picks would still be available in the next round. For whatever reason I decided to finally take my other pitching teammate here, namely Tim Lincecum. I also got a good-hitting backup with 400+PAs who can competently play all three non-1B infield positions, which was important since I was still thinking of using Coors Field so I’d need lots of extra PAs. But considering that there were still good pitchers (including a Kershaw or two) with cheaper teammates still available I may have reached here. I do like Lincecum’s low HR/9 though.
Round 5 – 2003 Woody Williams
This pick, in conjunction with my previous one, prompted my “rapturous agony” comment. Once again, I chose an expensive reserve-type player to get the exact player I wanted, almost certainly at least a round earlier than I needed to. But I considered 2003 Pujols to be the very best offensive player still available, and I decided that I couldn’t live without him. I suppose if you’re going to reach and overpay, reach and overpay for .359/.438/.650. But the extra salary for the relatively useless Woody Williams would prove to be a double whammy two rounds later.
Round 6 – 1971 Fergie Jenkins
This is the Jenkins I wanted from the get-go. “A $10M+ Jenkins?” you exclaim befuddledly. “Balderdash!” “Hogwash!” But hear me out. First of all, I was in need of a lot of good innings, and it was clear that on my team Jenkins was going to qualify as good innings. His ERC# and HR/9+ are on the low side for him. But most importantly, this being a non-DH league, in 1971 ol’ Ferguson slugged a whopping .478 with 6 HRs. And, you know, “COORS!!!” Going into this weekend I was targeting a cheap Fernando with this pick (preferably the 1994 one that’s not completely useless) but when two Fergies went in the three picks prior to mine I knew I had to act fast. For if there’s anything that Ernie the cab driver from It’s a Wonderful Life taught me, it’s how to recognize a run, whether it be on a bank or a Jenkins.
Round 7 – 1959 Vic Wertz
Sad trombone. To make my best laid plans come to fruition I really felt like I needed one of the cheap Fernandos here. Seven picks prior to mine there were three of them available. All three went during those seven picks. Once njbigwig took the second one I channeled my inner Ernie and knew I was done for. I had zero doubt that schwarze would take the last one; it was the only thing that made sense. My expensive Woody from two rounds before had finally come back to haunt me. Facing the prospect of having to use an expensive Fernando to go along with the inevitable expensive Derringer and Hadley, I felt I had to downsize my offense at second base. I originally targeted either 1951 Jackie Robinson or 1935 Buddy Myer, but their teammates were now too rich for my blood. So I downshifted and chose a cheap Vic Wertz and his teammate Pete Runnels. Runnels is a nice player, but he’s not significantly better than 2000 Luis Castillo, who would’ve allowed me another pitcher teammate (if I could afford one). If only I had known. And speaking of which, if someone had told me that in the 14
th round the cheap 1955 Pafko and his teammate Hank Aaron with his A+ range at 2B would still be available I might’ve chosen differently here. But nobody tells you these things.
Round 8 – 1927 Bump Hadley
This was your classic “it’s not wasted salary if you actually use it” kind of pick. Given the choice between $4M-$5M of definite suck and $6.5M of hopefully mediocre, I went with the latter. And although by now I had started suspecting that the whole Coors Field thing wasn’t going to happen for me, I figured a low OAV, low HR/9 pitcher (albeit with high BB/9) might play pretty well in this league. We shall see.
Round 9 – 1993 Fernando Valenzuela
What a difference two rounds make…thirty-two little draft picks…Dinah Washington ain’t got nothin’ on me. OK, so maybe she has. Anyway, I figured it was time to take my Fernando medicine here. But what’s interesting (in a very painful way) about this pick is that it comes along with a better offensive (and far better defensive) catcher (Hoiles) than I got with my cheap Castillo pick in the second round. So it turns out that if I had taken the 2000 Castillo I would’ve had a very similar offense, and better pitching, than I ended up with. Assuming I could fit it all in under the cap. Would I have? Much like the question of the number of licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop, the world may never know.
Round 10 - 2008 Tony Clark
This was a case where there wasn't really anyone I needed immediately, but I knew that I'd be in trouble if I ended up with one of the two most expensive Clarks. There were plenty of cheap Clarks also available, but I got burned by Fernando so I figured I wasn't taking any chances. If I started a run, all the better. I didn't really do that, but this pick didn't end up hurting me either.
Round 11 - 1947 Walt Masterson
Another "not very good but perhaps just good enough to eke out some wins with my offense" type of guy. The fact that 267 usable innings were available from a nominated player this late in the draft tells me that my offense-first philosophy might've been the way to go after all. Whether I executed this strategy successfully remains to be seen.
Round 12 - 1937 Paul Derringer
Now we're scraping the bottom of the barrel. He'll likely be a long reliever. If he pitches 50-100 innings for me I'll probably be OK. If he pitches 200 I'm probably in trouble. He's better than my Woody Williams though. That Pujols had better be good.
Round 13 – 1946 Andy Pafko
I had been considering taking the 1951 partial season Pafko every round since the 8th or so, but could never pull the trigger. Finally this round I had decided to do so, but Chisock beat me to him (with the full season version) a few picks prior. Oh well. This one is fine, and assuming I don’t play at Coors he won’t get all that many at bats anyway. All good. By the way, I’ve always really liked the name Andy Pafko. I don’t know why. I just like the way it sounds. Andy Pafko. I wish my name were Andy Pafko. But it’s not. As far as you know.
Round 14 – I really don’t care what year Bob Boone
Since I’m probably not playing at Coors, my 626 PA, bottom of the order in a non-DH league Mike Piazza isn’t going to need a whole lot of rest, so this pick is relatively irrelevant. He’ll get like 40 PAs, mostly in garbage time, and I can afford most of the Boones left so whatevs.
Round 15 – 1986 Tommy John
This one I’m pleasantly surprised about. Not a huge deal, but I was assuming I would take a cheap mop-up John, but I have enough salary cap space left over to afford one who might have a snowball’s chance in hell of getting someone out. Could be useful in those 19-inning games.
So here’s my projected starting lineup, at least against righties:
|
|
|
B |
PA/162 |
HR |
AVG |
AVG# |
OBP# |
SLG# |
HR/100 |
SB |
RC27 |
OPS+ |
SPD |
Salary |
C |
1B |
2B |
3B |
SS |
OF |
1 |
2B |
Runnels, Pete |
L |
696 |
6 |
.314 |
.320 |
.418 |
.426 |
1 |
6 |
6.68 |
.844 |
62 |
7,111,687 |
-- |
A+/C- |
B/B+ |
-- |
C-/D+ |
-- |
2 |
3B |
Boggs, Wade |
L |
698 |
8 |
.357 |
.357 |
.452 |
.473 |
1 |
0 |
8.98 |
.925 |
56 |
7,335,329 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
B/C |
-- |
-- |
3 |
OF |
Berkman, Lance |
S |
687 |
30 |
.316 |
.316 |
.448 |
.545 |
6 |
9 |
9.95 |
.993 |
68 |
6,420,680 |
-- |
A+/D- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
A/D- |
4 |
OF |
Pujols, Albert |
R |
685 |
43 |
.359 |
.359 |
.438 |
.650 |
7 |
5 |
11.79 |
1.088 |
62 |
8,443,689 |
-- |
A/D- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
B/D+ |
5 |
1B |
Martinez, Edgar |
R |
638 |
26 |
.327 |
.318 |
.452 |
.563 |
5 |
3 |
10.86 |
1.015 |
48 |
5,749,598 |
-- |
D/D- |
-- |
D-/D- |
-- |
-- |
6 |
SS |
Rodriguez, Alex |
R |
682 |
36 |
.358 |
.349 |
.403 |
.600 |
6 |
15 |
10.25 |
1.002 |
70 |
8,620,200 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
A-/C- |
-- |
7 |
OF |
Griffey Jr., Ken |
L |
642 |
49 |
.303 |
.295 |
.381 |
.597 |
9 |
16 |
9.47 |
.978 |
79 |
8,147,833 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
A-/A+ |
8 |
C |
Piazza, Mike |
R |
626 |
32 |
.328 |
.328 |
.389 |
.556 |
6 |
1 |
8.29 |
.945 |
41 |
5,786,015 |
B/A+/D+ |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
I’ll drop Runnels to 8th against lefties. He should probably hit 8th against everyone since he’s my weakest hitter, but I dunno. We’ll see. My rotation will probably be Jenkins #1, Clemens Tandem 2A, Hadley Tandem 2B, Lincecum Tandem 3A, Masterson Tandem 3B.
So now for a final word on the whole Coors Field thing. I do not recall ever having used Coors Field in my WhatIf career. I have no idea what constitutes a good Coors Field team. However, here was my reasoning as to why I was going to use it:
“I am focusing on offense, so I won’t be able to afford both a great offense and great starting pitching, especially given all of the extra wasted salary everyone will have to carry. Therefore, my lineup will be better than most but my rotation will be weaker than most, which will be a wash. However, because of the large number of nominated players we all have to draft, everyone’s bullpen will be full of the same weak-*** Derringers and Pettittes and Mastersons and Hadleys. So once we get to the part of the game where we’re all into our mediocre bullpens, my superior offense will give me an advantage. Therefore, my goal should be to get games into the bullpen as quickly as possible. Ergo, Coors Field. Q.E.D.”
I think this is acceptable reasoning. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the Forum…er, Field. I actually don’t think my pitching is all that bad. It’s not great, but if you just look at my top 1,450 innings my team ERC# is 2.63, which is at least a quarter of a run higher than I expected it to be. I’m going to have to crunch some numbers to see what I think the other pitching staffs will look like, but at this point I’m not sure Coors will help me any more than it would hurt me, especially since it’ll make my starting offensive players overly tired. Also, it seems like people may be using more good relievers than I’d anticipated, which negates a lot of my Coors logic. I’ll probably still go with a positive offensive park ('cause offense is fun!), just not one as drastic as Coors Field.
Well, it’s about time I shut up. Good luck to everyone, and thanks to schwarze for running a great draft and a great theme.