I have two recruits to pick from:

1) Pot=3, WE=50 Current=42.43
2) Pot=2 WE=30 Current=50.37

My roster is such that 2) could start as Fr. 1) would probably wait a couple of years, could redshirt.

Which one becomes the better play for last two years of eligibility?

#1. WE of 30 or lower is not good IMO. The math makes it close assuming normal growth, but the 30 WE knocks out #2 in my book.

Good luck.

nitros

One comment on nitros' comment: If you did start #2 throughout his freshman year, his WE would increase at least 10 points. But that said, I would probably go with #1 because of the higher potential, and redshirt him. Especially if we're talking about a skill position.

Note: Some players regardless of WE and Potential will not catch up to other players.

Thanks for the replies, looks like I may end up with both, will report back in a couple of seasons. Looking back at some of my other recruits, it seems like the two's go up about +2 per season/cat, the three's go up +4 per season/cat and STL go up +6 per season/cat. Small data set and lots of rounding. My guess is that, if I redshirt #1, that #2 is higher for the first four years, but #1 ends up being a better player than #2 during his red-shirt Sr. season.

if possibility of starting, #2 easily

if #1 wont catch until halfway through his RS SR season, why do you want a player that is better for 8 games over one that is better over 40? if your team is set up so that neither would play until they were SR, then maybe #1, but not in a rebuild.

especially if #2 can make you better right now

Posted by bjschumacher on 4/19/2017 1:27:00 PM (view original):
One comment on nitros' comment: If you did start #2 throughout his freshman year, his WE would increase at least 10 points. But that said, I would probably go with #1 because of the higher potential, and redshirt him. Especially if we're talking about a skill position.

High WE tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is, high WE begets (much) higher WE... and quickly.

Low WE does the inverse. It grows itself slowly, even with FR-season starts. It'll increase, but on a rebuild that's likely to only see 13 games this season, I'd be surprised if that WE was higher than 35 at the end of the season.

On my Stagg D-II team, I had a True-FR OL who started every game of the regular season AND the Conf Champ game - and then played as a backup through all five playoff games, but did not start. He is a High Potential (Pot = 3) guy and started with a 39 WE. Finished at 45 WE, for a +6 on a 19-game season, with the first 14 games being Starts.

Low WE does the inverse. It grows itself slowly, even with FR-season starts. It'll increase, but on a rebuild that's likely to only see 13 games this season, I'd be surprised if that WE was higher than 35 at the end of the season.

Spot on. I have not experienced a low WE (30 or less) grow substantially.

nitros

Does potential matter below D1A?

Potential is more valuable below 1A

Posted by genuvar on 4/20/2017 10:49:00 AM (view original):
Potential is more valuable below 1A

Absolutely!!!!

Posted by moreron on 4/20/2017 10:37:00 AM (view original):
Does potential matter below D1A?

You've got to be trolling us...

The power of compound interest

Not trolling just a moreron. I've been to lazy to actually track it and have always wondered how much difference it really makes, all else equal. But realist (the Wizard?) explains it succinctly.

Posted by moreron on 4/20/2017 4:44:00 PM (view original):
Not trolling just a moreron. I've been to lazy to actually track it and have always wondered how much difference it really makes, all else equal. But realist (the Wizard?) explains it succinctly.

Morons don't win 5 NCs in 72 seasons; morerons do. You're clearly a really good coach.

Just surprised you would have the Potential-per-Division importance so backwards...