I visit this Forum every day and have learned a lot from the often intelligent, sometimes inventive observations offered here since the inception of HBD. Rarely have I had anything constructive to contribute (and after you read this you may decide that I still haven't) but there is one commonly-accepted maxim that I've read here periodically which, in my 41-seasons of experience, is more fiction than fact; that long-term contract demands tend to increase as a player moves from his first through third years of Arbitration.

It would seem to be a logical aspect of the game, or in real life, and perhaps it was asserted in some long-forgotten Dev Chat.

While I have observed some type of variability in either the value of the long-term contract demanded or the length of the long-term contract demanded - or both - for the vast majority of Arb eligible players, for most players their long-term contract demands(value and/or length) remain static or decrease. Fewer players ask for an increasing number of years as they progress from Arb-1 to Arb-2 to Arb-3 and a distinct minority ask for more money as they make that same progression from Arb-1 to Arb-2 to Arb-3.

The most variability that I've observed in terms of the dollar value as players progress from Arb-1 to Arb-2 to Arb-3 is $200,000, in either increase or decrease.... so minimal as to be almost insignificant

I've never put this into a spread sheet, nor saved any screen captures to provide evidence of this. Since I conducted Arbitration hearings for 2 or 3 seasons their non-realized long-term demands are not often discernible from their player cards. All I have by way of evidence are my old-skool, long-hand notes which I've meticulously kept since Season 10 of my time in World Bench (the only World I've played in, I was here in World Bench at its inception and now am in the midst of its 41st season). My records from the pre-historic seasons (1-9) have gone missing.

Below are a selection of 25 players and their long-term demands; 12 players from the Medieval seasons (S11-S20) and 13 players from the Modern Era (S32-S40), ranging from utility players to award winners and eventual Hall of Famers. I'm not certain how well this will format but I'll wing it (and maybe edit for formatting).

Note; demand decreases highlighted in green, demand increases highlighted in red. Static demands are not highlighted.

Player Profile: Charles Priest - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S39 $3.8M/2 yrs S40 $3.5M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Ben Radinsky - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S38 $4.2M/2 yrs S39 $4M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Arodys Mantalban - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S37 $6M/4 yrs S38 $6M/5 yrs

Player Profile: Ricardo Tarasco - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S36 $5.8M/4 yrs S37 $5.8M/4 yrs S38 $5.8M/3 yrs

Player Profile: Morgan Fox - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S37 $5.8M/4 yrs S38 $5.8M/3 yrs

Player Profile: Benji Barajas - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S35 $5.8M/3 yrs S36 $5.8M/3 yrs S37 $5.8M/3 yrs

Player Profile: Bobby Decker - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S34 $4.2M/1 yr S35 $$4.2M/2 yrs S36 $4.2M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Thumper Sisk - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S33 $2M/1 yr S34 $1.6M/1 yr S35 $1.6M/1 yr

Player Profile: Wilfredo Olivares - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S34 $5M/4 yrs S35 $5M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Harry Marquez - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S34 $7.1M/5 yrs S35 $7.25M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Adys Johnson - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S34 $7.25M/4 yrs S35 $7.25M/3 yrs

Player Profile: Larry Haney - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S32 $8M/4 yrs S33 $8.1M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Leon Milledge - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S32 $6.875M/4 yrs S33 $6.8M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Ernest Jones - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S18/ $4.9M/4 yrs S19 $4.86/3 yrs S20 $4.6M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Benito Espinosa - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S18 $5.2M/2 yrs S19 $5.2M/4 yrs S20 $5.2M/3 yrs

Player Profile: Jim Hand - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S18 $7M/4 yrs S19 $7M/3 yrs

Wesley Costello

S17 $2.8M/1 yr S18 $2.6M/1 yr S19 $2.2M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Juan Cairo - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S17 $7.5M/3 yrs S18 $7.5M/4 yrs S19 $7.5M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Bert Manning - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S16 $3.2M/1 yr S17 $3.2M/2 yrs S18 $3M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Sam Bravo - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S15 $7.75M/5 yrs S16 $7.5M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Alex Osuna - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S14 $7.3M/4 yrs S15 $7.5M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Will Kerr - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S14 $5.6M/5 yrs S15 $5.4M/2 yrs

Player Profile: Magglio Flores - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S14 $6.9M/4 yrs S15 $7M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Dwayne Lombard - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S13 $5M/5 yrs S14 $4.8M/4 yrs S15 $4.8M/4 yrs

Player Profile: Steve Barber - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

S11 $3.6M/4 yrs S12 $3.6M/2 yrs S13 $3.4M/2 yrs

While I didn't check all, the few I did indicated the player was on the downside of his career when the LT demands came about. IOW, his ratings were decreasing thus the lower demand.

That's a good point that I had not considered when researching my notes and creating this thread. That's a logical and sensible solution.

Yet, while I don't know which of the players I posted that you sampled, and whereas I cannot see the past Ratings for players that are now on other rosters (but certainly could make an educated guess), among the current players listed (above) that are still on my roster - Radinsky, Marquez and Milledge - all three still show Ratings increases (or "upside" to borrow your terminology) of 1 or 2 points in the season (and subsequent) in which their long-term demands decreased (with Marquez asking for $125,000 more in Arb-2 than he did in Arb-1 while simultaneously decreasing the length by 1 year) so I'm not certain that your observation -- or the maxim that LT demands "tend" to increase -- is still indicative of what's actually happening with LT demands from Arb-1 through Arb-3.

Perhaps my experiences in this area are an anomaly.

I am curious to know what kind of increase others are seeing, particularly in terms of dollar amounts, for LT deals for Arb eligible players (and at what age, too). It's entirely possible that I'm going to Arbitration with players at later points in their respective careers than are many/most other HBDers. As stated above, for those players of mine which increase their LT demands I do not see variances of more than $200,000.

Thanks for your input!

I'll post a handful of my guys in MG(budgeting now). We can check on them next season too. But, from experience, the driving factor is player ratings. Increase, ratings went up. Decrease, ratings went down(perhaps due to injury).

fwiw the knowledge base / FAQ alludes to OVR but also to an unknown "playing time" threshold which ends up polarizing a player's demand as either minimum-ish or full-priced

Arbitration

How are Arbitration Demands determined?

If an arbitration eligible player sees regular playing time throughout the season his demands will increase at the normal rate based on his overall rating. However, if the player does not see regular playing time throughout the season then his demands will revert back to what he asked for the previous season.

So a guy like Tom Lilly (SP), on a team isn't contending, with 82 OVR with 92 vR who got $1.6 in arb1, maybe it's not so bad he's shelved with an injury.... hoping his arb2 ends up being $1.6 instead of $8.0?

Well, he's talking about LT but, yeah, ARB demands are somewhat based on PT. I've got a back-up C and LF who play very little just asking for 378K. I may have a b-u SS asking the same.

Playing time matters a lot. I guided Player Profile: Rodney Frazier - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports through three years of arb at absurdly low numbers for a guy with 80+ overall.

4 x 8.875 Player Profile: Edgmer Zorrilla - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
4 x 10.5 Player Profile: Deivi Galvez - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
2 x 3.4 Player Profile: Miguel Tapies - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports