A) We aren't MLB teams. MLB teams do it to save money or, if you prefer, make more money. HBD don't make money.
B) It's situational as I laid out. Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's dumb. Anyone saying "Always" in HBD is giving bad advice(except for 20m in training).

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/9/2017 8:34:00 AM (view original):
A) We aren't MLB teams. MLB teams do it to save money or, if you prefer, make more money. HBD don't make money.
B) It's situational as I laid out. Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's dumb. Anyone saying "Always" in HBD is giving bad advice(except for 20m in training).

We are saving money in terms of maximizing our $185m budgets. One thing I'm learning is that every million counts. It's a great game with various approaches. The two of you both give great insight, and I love the thoughts behind your different strategies. You are both incredibly helpful.

For the 20 games, is that the target number? I've also seen 23, 24 or 25 listed.

It's 20 minor league games.

Again, sometimes it's smart, sometimes it's dumb. My comment was in relation to comparing MLB to HBD. That's oftentimes silliness. As in this case. MLB teams have to deal with repercussions from player/agent when they hold a player back. We don't. Nobody gets hurt feelings or feels the loss of earlier millions(or a potential career-ender before those millions).

When you say something stupid like "A) We aren't MLB teams. MLB teams do it to save money or, if you prefer, make more money. HBD don't make money", you're missing the point that obviously in HBD it's not about REVENUE, but everyone is on the same BUDGET. This is the key mechanism to restrain player salaries. The object of the game is to win as many games for as little salary as possible, so that you can spend as much money as possible elsewhere ie training medical scouting AND ON OTHER PLAYERS (free agency/trades)

You're allowed 3 full seasons before arb. If you wait the 30 games or whatever to call up, you literally get 130 games for free. Completely free. When you do it your way, you're not only paying for the extra 30 you're paying for all 162. You're saying that 0 free > 130 free. That's so dumb.

I've made the analogy before with the Chicago Cubs. They are paying $0 opportunity cost on Kris Bryant but they're still realizing his full WAR, so they're spending that extra year of savings NOW on a guy like Jon Lester (they can give him a 4-year deal instead of a 3-year deal) and renting Aroldis Chapman. They have extra budget to spend because they're not spending it on Kris Bryant. Expanding upon this concept, if they also do this with Schwarber and also with Addison Russell and also with every single player they call up from the minors, they're savings literally hundreds of millions of dollars in the long run, which they can choose to either hoarde for revenue OR SPEND NOW ON OTHER GUYS TO WIN MORE GAMES NOW

This is the concept that you're somehow missing. You're stressing about going 14-16 over the first 30 games instead of 16-14. You know where you're going to make up those 2 wins? On the money you saved by not calling them up. You're going to win 10 games with that money you spent on somebody else. You're going to win the division by 10 instead of losing by 1 like you're stressing about. This game isn't rocket science my friend, in many ways it's incredibly basic and obvious

B) It's situational as I laid out. Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's dumb. Anyone saying "Always" in HBD is giving bad advice(except for 20m in training).

And yes this is an ALWAYS concept. It ALWAYS saves you money so it's ALWAYS good. It's trading 2 wins now for 10 wins later. 10 is always better than 2. Always.

Yeah, that's retarded.

Thanks for proving my point. "Always" is a stupid way to go thru life.

With 13 games left I would make the decision based on your need to win those 13 games. If you already have a spot locked up and dont have a reasonable chance to get a BYE I would wait until the playoffs to bring him up. If you're 2-3 wins from a playoff spot I would consider calling a guy up that could help me. If you have no shot at the playoffs and you're not at risk of falling below a min win rule then there is no reason to bring a guy up with 13 games. It already sucks enough having to hold a guy back 20 games to save the year of eligibility adding 13 more to that total for no good reason doesnt make sense.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/9/2017 12:18:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, that's retarded.

Thanks for proving my point. "Always" is a stupid way to go thru life.

...proving your point that 2 > 10? Whatever you say man. I'm really struggling to understand why this is such a hard concept for you. Help me understand your perspective.

You're making the argument that you might really need to win a few extra games in the first 25

I'm making a counter-argument that you're going to win 10 more games per season if you did this for every player, and therefore you will be consistently cruising to the playoffs season after season, instead of consistently being in situations where you're making the playoffs by 1-3 games or missing the playoffs by 1-3 games.

And you're still telling me your way is better. Please help me understand why you could possibly think you're right.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/9/2017 8:34:00 AM (view original):
A) We aren't MLB teams. MLB teams do it to save money or, if you prefer, make more money. HBD don't make money.
B) It's situational as I laid out. Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's dumb. Anyone saying "Always" in HBD is giving bad advice(except for 20m in training).

"Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's dumb."

The truth is that ALWAYS it's right, NEVER it's dumb, sometimes you get unlucky and miss the playoffs by 1 game.

But truthfully that's just being results-oriented vs process-oriented.
-From a Process perspective it is always 100% mathematically correct. It is never wrong. Literally never.
-From a Results perspective, yes SOMETIMES, OCCASIONALLY you are the S19 version of the Franchise Profile: Texas Toast where you literally miss the playoffs by 1 game because you literally went 15-30 in 1-run games, so your expected win% was .625% but your actual was .549%. But USUALLY you are the S17-18 and S20-24+ version that destroys everybody and gets to the LCS and beyond every season. Those S20-S24+ rosters are simply not possible to assemble without this concept. With a finite maximum budget you simply cannot make enough acquisitions unless you are saving money somewhere somehow. Give me 9 seasons of WS chances and I'll gladly trade you the one where I got very unlucky and missed by 1 game. Team probably wasn't good enough to win that one anyways!!!

This is a quite literal example of trading 2 wins now for 10 later. This concept is mathematically proven and ALWAYS correct, whether you "believe it" or not. Don't waste my time telling me whether you believe it, tell me whether you understand it.

Look, I think you understand the game. I also know you know I'm not reading all that nonsense.

2 wins now are better than 10 wins later when you miss the goddam playoffs by 1 game. Who knows if you'll even play that 4th season when all that bounty you receive by ALWAYS, YET STUPIDLY, holding players back 20 games. Have you paid any attention to the state of HBD?

I'd say "Stop being an arrogant moron" but that's your go to. So, please continue. But, next time you rant, make it short and maybe I'll read it.

The guy who says "tl;dr" also says "Stop being an arrogant moron", that's brilliant.

If you had read, you would have seen a literal example of 1 season where I missed the playoffs by 1 game surrounded by 8 seasons where I made the playoffs by 10+ games.

Short enough?

So your experience applies to everyone?

One size doesn't fit all and "ALWAYS" is excruciatingly stupid in HBD.

Yes, this principle is objective reality regardless of either one of our individual experiences.

It's convenient for you to say "I didn't read your point, therefore your point is invalid", but that is the peak of cognitive dissonance. Deliberate ignorance does not make you right. What I'm saying is 100% correct and what you're saying is 0% correct. Waiting 25 games on every single player allows you to assemble better rosters, period.

Yes sometimes you still miss by 1 game, yes sometimes people quit the game before 5 seasons, yes you make points that are valid considerations, but they're small-percentage outliers (variance) that do not disprove this fundamental process-oriented game-theory perspective.

"2 wins now are better than 10 wins later when you miss the goddam playoffs by 1 game. Who knows if you'll even play that 4th season when all that bounty you receive by ALWAYS, YET STUPIDLY, holding players back 20 games. Have you paid any attention to the state of HBD?"

Q: Who knows if you'll even play that 4th season?
A: Me. I know I'll be here in 4 seasons. If not, the new owner will continue to reap the benefits.

Q: Have you paid any attention to the state of HBD?
A: You're right, the site could be boarded up tomorrow. Odds are incredibly remote, but if it happens it happens. Can't control unforeseen circumstances. The Earth could get hit by a meteor. Trump could turn off the internet. All of these scenarios are possible, but remote. All I can control is the process, and this is the correct process.

It's less about a boarded up site and more about sitting for months before filling. And you could die before that 4th season. Everyone has an expiration date and we don't know what it is.