First off, let me echo the sentiments of others in saying that I enjoyed this draft immensely. I'm already looking forward to the next installment.
For my initial player/team selection I wanted an offensive player who would give me as large as possible an advantage over other players at his position in this league, without completely breaking the bank. My thoughts immediately turned to one of my favorite high cap players in the sim, 1935 Arky Vaughan. Since at the time I had maybe a total of two minutes that I could afford to spend thinking about this issue, I went with him, not realizing/remembering how good his teammate Cy Blanton was that season. Had I any more time to consider this decision I might have chosen differently because of Blanton, but in hindsight I'm happy with my choice. For my pitching selection I wanted to maximize the number of innings I'd receive. Quality was, of course, a factor, but I was willing to sacrifice a modicum of quality for a good deal of quantity. Dolf Luque, with his 339 innings of extreme stinginess in allowing home runs, fit the bill nicely, especially for a league that I projected would be power-heavy.
Once all of the initial selections were announced and I was able to assemble the list of available players, it didn't take long to craft my strategy. Considering all of the available pitching, twist and non-twist, it was apparent that there were enough decent innings that one could concentrate heavily on hitting in the early part of the draft and still be left with a pitching staff that was not all that much worse than everyone else's. Given the paucity of hitting options at certain positions it seemed obvious that most of the marginal value in the beginning of the draft was on offense, and, therefore, much like in my recent 16x16 draft, I would go offense-heavy. Each of my nominated teams had two decent high-innings twist pitchers available, so I figured that at least one of them (Eppa Rixey, Pete Donahue, Red Lucas, Waite Hoyt) would be available after round 10. I decided that I would use two twists on hitters, with Luque, my third drafted twist and my post-round 10 twist combining for 900 -1,000 decent innings, which would get me close enough that I could fill in the rest of my pitching staff with relievers.
Round 1 - 2003 Barry Bonds
In order to execute my strategy of getting as many good hitters as possible, I knew I needed to maximize the contributions of my non-twisted hitters. No matter who was available, I wasn't going to use a twist in round 1. As much as Bonds was clearly the best offensive player (twist or otherwise) in the draft, I was kind of hoping that he would be gone by my pick, because I didn't want to have to make the tough call of whether I could afford to fit both he and Vaughan under a $110M cap, especially since Bonds requires an additional 100-150 PAs to have a full outfielder. While I also considered Chipper Jones with this pick, I decided on Bonds, figuring that if I over-shot on salary early I could always adjust later, while if I ended up with extra salary at the end there wouldn't be enough good players available to make up for it. If I'm going to err, I'm OK with erring on the side of a 1.262 OPS# and 16.49 RC/27.
Round 2 - 1985 Pedro Guerrero
I didn't see the point of taking a twist player while there were elite non-twist guys available, and to me a third baseman with a normalized slash line of .326/.427/.581 is pretty elite. Like Bonds he's a tad short in the plate appearance department, but in leagues like this where there are plenty of decent backups available I'm OK with that. Even Guerrero plus 75 PAs of awful is going to be better than almost everyone else's third basemen, and if I make the postseason with the extra rest there he'll be able to play every game at 100%. Low PA guys are often under-valued in drafts such as this. My only slight regret with this pick is that it precluded me from taking the 1985 Mike Scioscia, one of my favorite catchers in the sim and one of my favorite ballplayers ever since I attended game 4 of the 1988 NLCS.
Round 3 - 2015 Chase Utley
There was one elite non-twist offensive second baseman in this draft, Joe Morgan, and he was (predictably) gone before my first round pick. There was one other good non-twist offensive second baseman in this draft, Craig Biggio, and he was taken before my second round pick. Therefore, if I wanted a good offensive player at every position, I knew I was going to have to use a twist on a second baseman. There were three good twist second basemen available in this draft. Frankie Frisch went in round 2. Edgardo Alfonzo was not available to me since he was on the same team as Bonds. Therefore I had to have Utley. I've respected Chase Utley since I virtually pooped my pants from fear every time he came to the plate in the 2009 World Series, and you can't argue with a normalized .330/.407/.545 and good defense. BTW, the fact that Alfonzo lasted through round 10 of this draft completely boggles my mind. Had I known that would happen I would've taken Chipper instead of Bonds and taken Edgardo in round 10. I'm not sure I understand what people were thinking here. The name of the game is marginal value, folks.
Round 4 - 2012 Melky Cabrera
This draft went as smoothly for me as any draft I've ever done on this site. There was only one player who I really wanted and reasonably could've thought would be available with a given pick who I didn't get. David Justice was that player, and he was taken with the pick immediately before this one. As good as my offense ended up being, I would probably like my lineup twice as much if Justice were in it. Much like the rug the Chinaman peed on (and yes, I recognize that Chinaman is not the preferred nomenclature) he would've really tied the room...er, lineup, together. With him gone, and with no twist-worthy catchers available, and with plenty of twistable first basemen and outfielders left on the table, I went with the non-twist case of Turtle Wax consolation prize. I've never used the Melkman before; if he delivers commiserate with his performance history I suppose I'll be pleased. But he's no Justice. Not by a long shot.
Round 5 - 1935 Ripper Collins
Speaking of hoping someone delivers commiserate with his performance history, this was an interesting decision. Not so much because of his performance history, but because of that of the other guy I was considering here, Jack Clark. As you may have gathered, I'm a big OBP and power guy. As such, I have always been intrigued by the 1987 Jack Clark, but I've always been afraid to use him because of the low batting average and the fact that homers don't play well in the sim. His performance history (.274 BA and rather anemic .465 SLG) bears that out. However, in a post-1920 theme his skill set might just play. But for whatever reason I couldn't pull the trigger. Maybe I just wanted a relative "sure thing", maybe I wanted to finally draft someone who played a full season, maybe it was my love of switch-hitters. But this pick feels kind of meh to me. Do you know who wouldn't have felt "meh"? The Crime Dog. But I was starting to get the feeling that I might not be able to fit him under the cap. And I was right.
Round 6 - Burleigh Grimes
The way this draft was going, it seemed like everyone had their primary pitchers by this point. I probably could've waited at least until round 10 for this guy. But I really wanted him, and no one else available really thrilled me, so I went with him here. And I don't regret it. He was the guy I targeted with my pitching twist all along. Why? Well, 320 innings of home run suppression certainly helps. But on top of that you get .306/.358/.432, with 8 doubles and 3 triples in 111 ABs. Look at those numbers again. Other than my Vaughan there might be two or three starting shortstops in this league who hit better than that. In a non-DH league if you want an elite offense it certainly helps to have pitchers who can turn the lineup over, and Grimes does more than that.
Round 7 - 1992 Don Slaught
This is the classic case of "40% of a catcher is better than 0% of a catcher." There were no decent 100% catchers, or even decent 60% offensive catchers, available at this point. I mean, both Johnny bleeping Roseboros, neither of whom can hit their way out of a paper bag, were long gone by now. Man I would've liked to have had that Scioscia.
Round 8 - 2013 Matt Kemp
This was a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think the 2011 Kemp is a good player and a worthy twist, in theory. He hits for average and power, he has a good OBP, he steals fairly prolifically and efficiently, and he plays good defense. Good players cost money, and his $8.3M salary is reasonable. But in hindsight it wasn't reasonable for my team at this juncture in the draft. His 40/51 SBs is good, but most (or at least many) of the catchers in this league are going to have A+ arms, so, especially given my expected high-scoring offense, any value I derive from his speed will be minimal. Ultimately the reason I went with Kemp was his defense. The only decent defender I had in the outfield was Bonds, who will not start 30 or so games given his low PAs, and I didn't want to have to play C+/C- Melky Cabrera in CF. The problem is that because of Kemp's high salary I ended up not being able to afford a good offensive and defensive catcher to pair with Slaught, and of course, being me, I went with the offense, So I got 30 good defensive games in CF at the expense of probably 70 abyssmal defensive games at catcher. If I had instead taken Frank Howard, with a similar OBP and SLG as Kemp for $2.2M less, I could've afforded a better catcher and probably either another good reliever or better backups in the infield. I blew it here, plain and simple.
Round 9 - 1998 Kerry Ligtenberg
After the Kemp pick I recognized that I couldn't afford a standout bullpen, but I at least wanted one of the better relievers available. I surmised, correctly as it turned out, that it was pretty much now or never. The reliever run appeared to be coming, and it was. I'm perfectly pleased with this pick.
Round 10 - 1963 Dick Calmus
A decent reliever from a team that didn't have a ton of good options left. Not a lot of innings, but otherwise fine.
Round 10.5 - Red Lucas
I mentioned earlier that I planned to use this twist on a pitcher, and that I expected at least one among Eppa Rixey, Pete Donohue, Red Lucas, Waite Hoyt to be available. I was pretty surprised that all four were sitting there. I was originally leaning towards Donohue and his 310 innings of 0.10 HR/9#, but I was quickly running up against the cap. So I switched gears from a 3-man rotation to two 2-man tandems, taking 1927 Red Lucas and his 254 decent innings and .313/.368/.373 hitting prowess. This left me a starting pitcher short, but I was confident that my targeted 4th starter would be sitting there for the next several rounds.
Round 11 - 1922 Les Mann
So by this point I had recognized that I would have a salary cap problem. The last thing I wanted was to have to waste salary, so I started looking at potential danger areas; teams with few players that I could use and few cheap fill-ins. I also needed two 150+ backup OFs to replace Bonds and Melky from time to time. This pick helped on both fronts. While no one can truly replace Bonds, .330/.404/.485 isn't too bad.
Round 12 - 1938 Russ Bauers
I thought I was going to be able to wait longer on this pick because I thought everyone already had most of their starting pitching innings. Maybe I could have, but surprisingly to me, starting pitchers were still flying off the shelves and this was the guy I wanted among those still available so I grabbed him here. While a 2.99 ERC# is nothing to write home about, I like his peripherals and I think he'll do OK. While he's no Grimes or Lucas he can hit a little (at least relative to most modern pitchers) so he fits in. My two tandems will probably be Luque/Lucas and Bauers/Grimes. I'm doing it this way because Luque and Bauers are the weakest hitters of my 4 SPs, and since they'll hit 9th having them start the game will minimize their plate appearances and relatively maximize those of my pitchers who can hit. Speaking of pitchers hitting (and I'll shut up soon about this, I swear), this pick points out another reason why my Kemp pick was a bad one. I would've had to have picked him a few rounds prior to this, but 2013 Greinke would've fit in quite well with my team instead of Bauers, hitting .328/.409/.379 that season. That's kind of a legit leadoff hitter. Alas.
Something I just thought of while in the shower (as an aside, and I don't know what it is about being in the bathroom, but most of my best thinking is done while I'm showering, shaving, or sitting on the toilet) is that another way to maximize the plate appearances of my pitchers who hit well is to have them start their respective games and bat them leadoff. This would also help me save on plate appearances for a few of my low-PA hitters, allowing them to start more games. Hmmmmm...
Round 13 - 1987 Tito Landrum
There were 2 $200k guys on the 1987 Cards roster, and then a big jump to the next cheapest, and they otherwise had no one left who could help me. Just playing defense here. Unlike most of the guys on my team. <<rimshot>> Thanks. I'm here all week. Try the veal.
Round 14 - 1981 Dick Davis
My backup for Melky. .338/.392/.489 in 161 PAs. Since my two best hitters (Arky & Bonds) are left-handed I wanted to make sure my Melky replacement was a righty to balance out the lineup a little bit.
Round 15 - 1994 Andy Stankiewicz
Backup SS with a .401 OBP# to occasionally spell Arky and his 646 PAs.
Round 16 - 1994 Steve Bedrosian
Bullpen depth. I thought about going with Bielecki (super cheap and might get some guys out in a Long B role) here and then trying to add another decent reliever later, but I didn't know if any would still be around.
Round 17 - 2015 Kyle Schwarber
"You have to have a catcher because if you don't you're likely to have a lot of passed balls." - Casey Stengel. But who ever said Schwarber was a catcher? I waited so long to take another "catcher" because the 2015 Cubs had three that had roughly the number of plate appearances necessary to pair with Slaught. Of course I went with Schwarber because he's the best hitter of the three. I don't expect him to throw out any basestealers, but his defense is D rather than D- so hopefully that means we won't have too many passed balls. Catcher is clearly the weak link of my team. Have I mentioned that I really wish I had the 1985 Mike Scioscia?
Round 18 - 1966 Howie Reed
3.47 ERC# for $800k this late in the draft? Yes please.
Round 19 - 1933 Jack Salveson
Cheapest and best of the 1933 Giants scrub relievers. Will do fine in a mop-up role, or as fine as a mop-up guy can do.
Round 20 - 1975 Doug Flynn
RHH backup for Utley (613 PAs) who can hit a little. No range but A+ defense. Whatevs.
Round 21 - 1996 Mike Busch
Backup 3B for Guerrero (581 PAs). I could've gone with LHH Dave Hansen here but he can't hit any pitcher no matter what hand the guy throws with so I figured I'd take a player who might close his eyes and swing really hard and get a hold of one once or twice a season.
Round 22 - 1986 John Mizerock
Oh wait, even with Slaught and Schwarber I only have about 560 PAs at "catcher". Enter Mizerock: 107 PAs of .378 OBP# for $443k. Plus he has a D arm which is a defensive upgrade over Schwarber!
So how did I do? Well, I can say this for sure: I didn't waste any salary. Other than my $200k Landrum and my $386k mop-up Salveson I expect to use pretty much every plate appearance and inning that I drafted, and I came in at about $51k short of the cap.
Minus Landrum my team's normalized slash line is .325/.418/.547. If I get that far, my postseason lineup (assuming all starters except Slaught can play every game at 100%) has a normalized slash line of .332/.426/.570. My 1,404 innings of non mop-up pitching have a combined ERC# of 2.60, which is not great but I think will be good enough given my offense. All of my SPs are good at limiting home runs. I also believe I have an additional advantage of having the best hitting pitching staff in the league. I'd say overall I executed my strategy well, although my team would be better if I had taken Frank Howard instead of Matt Kemp, and it might have been better if I had taken Chipper instead of Bonds, though I'm less sure of that.
5/15/2017 10:07 AM (edited)