Can someone tell me what formula they use for the Expected Percentage calculation on the Standings page? I've tried the standard Pythagorean Formula using a few different exponents, but haven't gotten one that calculates it exactly.

Never looked at very closely but just assumed it was run differential.

joe..can you show the calculations in an example.

Your team scored 550 runs and allowed 450 runs. Your exp. pct is .550. Total runs scored in your games divided by the amount of runs your team scored.

Correct that. Got my 'divided by' backwards. The runs your team scored divided by the total runs in your games.

But, after looking at actual exp pct in my standings, I am obviously totally wrong. Sorry 'bout that.

For instance. Here is the final standings in one of the leagues I commish. The Exp. Column is what shows on the standings page. The Calc Exp column is using the Pythagorean Formula using 2 as the exponent. I've tried using other exponents but have never been able to reproduce it exactly.

East	Wins	PCT	RS	RA	Exp.	Calc Exp
Detroit Tigers(94) (flippen)	39	0.325	619	1013	0.262	0.272
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (crazyjoe02)	41	0.342	630	913	0.317	0.315
Texas Rangers (mattedesa)	46	0.383	722	869	0.404	0.404
Montreal Expos (fabulous)	51	0.425	647	724	0.444	0.441
New York Yankees (20ks)	52	0.433	682	767	0.441	0.439
1994 Iconic SF Giants (bottomlee)	54	0.450	605	669	0.451	0.447
Chicago White Sox (epup1975)	55	0.458	667	687	0.485	0.484
Oakland A's (rsp777)	57	0.475	737	792	0.463	0.462
California Angels (ljemd)	58	0.483	714	716	0.499	0.499
Atlanta Braves(94) (flippen)	58	0.483	622	623	0.499	0.499
St. Louis Cardinals (dn3524)	60	0.500	666	668	0.499	0.498
New York Mets (Scuttler)	63	0.525	649	555	0.575	0.581
Pittsburgh Pirates (vegcity)	64	0.533	718	722	0.497	0.497
Baltimore Orioles 94 (fanatic86)	67	0.558	772	630	0.601	0.605
Houston Astros (coled)	68	0.567	656	595	0.547	0.551
Chicago Cubs (MVG99)	69	0.575	677	551	0.599	0.606
Los Angeles Dodgers (whoscraig)	69	0.575	611	530	0.567	0.574
Boston Red Sox (ortails)	74	0.617	859	588	0.684	0.689
Cincinnati Reds '94 (crazyjoe02)	76	0.633	797	653	0.600	0.603
Cleveland Indians (whoscraig)	79	0.658	824	609	0.649	0.653

I used the following formula:

(Runs Scored) ^ 2 / ((Runs Scored) ^ 2 + (Runs Allowed) ^ 2)

As I said, I've tried it with several exponents rather than 2 but none seem to work.

It may be that they use pythaganport or pythaganpat and have a variable exponent. I can run that league through a quick test and get back to you...

How many games were played in that league? The win totals indicate 120 games. Is it final standings or standings through 120 games?

Assuming 120 games, pythaganpat gives the WIS predicted records.

If you aren't familiar with it, pythaganpat calculates the exponent for the Pythagorean win formula individually for each team using the equation exponent = ((RS + RA)/G)^0.285.

East	Wins	PCT	RS	RA	Exp.	pythaganpat exponent	Calc
Detroit Tigers(94) (flippen)	39	0.325	619	1013	0.262	2.104062271	0.262
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (crazyjoe02)	41	0.342	630	913	0.317	2.070702147	0.317
Texas Rangers (mattedesa)	46	0.383	722	869	0.404	2.08886006	0.404
Montreal Expos (fabulous)	51	0.425	647	724	0.444	2.002115	0.444
New York Yankees (20ks)	52	0.433	682	767	0.441	2.033938583	0.441
1994 Iconic SF Giants (bottomlee)	54	0.45	605	669	0.451	1.960679607	0.451
Chicago White Sox (epup1975)	55	0.458	667	687	0.485	1.995008104	0.485
Oakland A's (rsp777)	57	0.475	737	792	0.463	2.065330118	0.463
California Angels (ljemd)	58	0.483	714	716	0.499	2.026301732	0.499
Atlanta Braves(94) (flippen)	58	0.483	622	623	0.499	1.947854935	0.499
St. Louis Cardinals (dn3524)	60	0.5	666	668	0.499	1.986564893	0.499
New York Mets (Scuttler)	63	0.525	649	555	0.575	1.929353884	0.575
Pittsburgh Pirates (vegcity)	64	0.533	718	722	0.497	2.030330109	0.497
Baltimore Orioles 94 (fanatic86)	67	0.558	772	630	0.601	2.014914066	0.601
Houston Astros (coled)	68	0.567	656	595	0.547	1.950525705	0.547
Chicago Cubs (MVG99)	69	0.575	677	551	0.599	1.940237434	0.599
Los Angeles Dodgers (whoscraig)	69	0.575	611	530	0.567	1.900026917	0.567
Boston Red Sox (ortails)	74	0.617	859	588	0.684	2.033138088	0.684
Cincinnati Reds '94 (crazyjoe02)	76	0.633	797	653	0.6	2.034338534	0.600
Cleveland Indians (whoscraig)	79	0.658	824	609	0.649	2.027512354	0.649

It was indeed 120 games. Thanks for that!!

all i can say is im really amazed...ill have to tell you guys some time how i passed 11th grade calculus.

Just as an FYI I sent in a ticket and they responded that they do exactly what dahsdebater said. Thanks again guys!

The formula is based on sabermetric averages and are most accurate when you have a standard looking team. If you have an extreme team (high scoring, pitching and defense, power, or speed playing for 1 run, etc.) the expected results formula is a little off. But what really throws off the formula is when pitchers are abused to where they give up 30 runs. If that happens too many times your formula is meaningless..