Pythagorean win percentage, a Bill James invention, is calculated by taking the square of runs scored and dividing by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed.

Expected win percentage is nearly the same calculation, but the exponent has been changed to best fit the data. WIS uses an exponent of 1.8 or 1.9 if I recall.

Posted by rbow923 on 5/19/2017 11:11:00 PM (view original):
The formula is based on sabermetric averages and are most accurate when you have a standard looking team. If you have an extreme team (high scoring, pitching and defense, power, or speed playing for 1 run, etc.) the expected results formula is a little off. But what really throws off the formula is when pitchers are abused to where they give up 30 runs. If that happens too many times your formula is meaningless..

That's so right bc i routinely have an expected win percentage in the high forties despite my team maybe playing .600 ball. The reason is that i use my AAA and $200k scrubs a LOT, as mops and starting pitchers and they can give up 15-20 runs per start easily.

Posted by zubinsum on 5/20/2017 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Pythagorean win percentage, a Bill James invention, is calculated by taking the square of runs scored and dividing by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed.

Expected win percentage is nearly the same calculation, but the exponent has been changed to best fit the data. WIS uses an exponent of 1.8 or 1.9 if I recall.

It's a variable exponent. See my post on page 1.

Posted by dahsdebater on 5/20/2017 9:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zubinsum on 5/20/2017 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Pythagorean win percentage, a Bill James invention, is calculated by taking the square of runs scored and dividing by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed.

Expected win percentage is nearly the same calculation, but the exponent has been changed to best fit the data. WIS uses an exponent of 1.8 or 1.9 if I recall.

It's a variable exponent. See my post on page 1.

Got it. TY.