Is there any possibility that, prior to a given season, Simmy gives players a behind-the-scenes thumbs up or down that impact them for that season only? I'm assuming not but it sure feels that way sometimes.

I feel the same way. I have a closer who had a 7.01 ERA one season to two seasons with 2.30 and 2.61. Now he's close back to 5.00 this season

Behold Oscar Sample.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=6537386

ever since I strengthened the linueup around him, he has gotten worse.

Posted by hockey1984 on 5/16/2017 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Behold Oscar Sample.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=6537386

ever since I strengthened the linueup around him, he has gotten worse.

Small sample size. And I'm not referring to the fact that Oscar's only 5'10"; even half a season is a small sample size for this sort of thing.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=7230394

This is pretty inconsistent year to year statistics

Posted by dedelman on 5/16/2017 3:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hockey1984 on 5/16/2017 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Behold Oscar Sample.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=6537386

ever since I strengthened the linueup around him, he has gotten worse.

Small sample size. And I'm not referring to the fact that Oscar's only 5'10"; even half a season is a small sample size for this sort of thing.

But it's strange though no? He has gotten progressively worse in virtually every stat for the past 5 seasons.

Relievers (especially closers) are the worst example to use for this, because by definition they will have the smallest sample sizes and are therefore the most volatile and susceptible to variance. For a guy like Fernandez, his HR spiked a bit (opponent-dependent), his OAV went up by about .02 (could be luck and/or could be defense-dependent), OBP went up by about .03 or .04 which can be luck (opponent variance, umpire variance), slugging went up .100 points which is definitely bad luck and/or opponent-dependent and/or because you have bad player settings such as pitch counts too high and/or call bullpen too low. The difference between max-pitch 15 + call bullpen 1 and max-pitch 10 + call bullpen 3 can mean the difference between his 3rd at bat being a 3-run HR versus a situation where simmy calls in a RHP to get an inning-ending double-play. Bullpens are incredibly nuanced

What pj said.

MikeT summed it up really well a while ago. A reliever gives up a walk followed by a homerun and is then pulled.

He would need 6 near perfect starts of an inning each with no earned runs to get down to an ERA of 3. That is a lot to ask. With relievers, look at the game log. One bad game can ruin their stats.

What hockey said- look at the game log.

Fernandez only had 4 bad games. 4/8 PM2, 4/12 PM2, 4/21 PM, and 5/4 PM2 which was his worst. Those 4 games alone ruined his entire season's stat line

Analyze how those appearances went and think about how different player settings (pitch counts and call bullpen) might have affected the sequence of events. Sometimes there's nothing you can do, sometimes guys just have bad games, because it's based off stratomatic / Risk principles of RNG luck. But in that 5/4 PM2 game for example, he pitched to three extra batters that he wouldn't have / shouldn't have if his pitch count and/or call bullpen was more restrictive. Guys pitch worse when fatigued (near their max pitch count)