Posted by MikeT23 on 6/2/2017 8:19:00 AM (view original):
Here's my point. You and I are fighting over a 20m a year player. You win without a NTC/PO. You ask me what I bid. There's no incentive for me to tell you the truth. I know what you bid. It's like playing poker. Once you fold, nobody gets to see what the winner had.
Except, in that situation, I would not be the one "Winning" the Max Contract player. By not offering the NTC/PO, I would lose. And I haven't ever lost (multiple such contracts) when I had the better relevant coaches.
So for your stance (which isn't based on your personal experience) to be correct, I've just gotten extremely lucky that every time I've gone in max for someone (no NTC/PO) the other coach decided that he would rather not sign the person than "trump" my offer just by making the last year a PO or tacking on a NTC. Because if he had done either, he would have won over me (according to you). It strikes me as highly unlikely (and not supported by documentation or evidence) that every time I'm in a bidding war for a max contract player, the thing that is a stumbling block for every other owner involved is that he won't offer a NTC or PO.