All in Equals Good Chance? Topic

I have been learning my way to be a more forceful D1 recruiter. I believe I have picked my engagements wisely and have seeked higher reward vs risk. However looking around and seeing others success I have some scenarios I'm wondering about peoples opinions.

All these scenarios are assuming you are going to be battling a big time school and all recruits are 5 star studs. You are coaching from a Low to Mid Major school.

Scenario 1
You have a local recruit ~500 miles. His preferences are decent but not great. Do you go all-in for the battle?

Scenario 2
800 mile recruit, Preferences are great for you. Big time school is within 250 miles of the recruit. However you notice things like (Far from home, No preference on success). Do you go all-in for the battle?

Scenario 3
Recruit is 150 miles Preferences are awful (Far From home, wants success, doesn't care if he plays). Do you go all-in for the battle?

The reason I'm asking is I get wary about going all in for a recruit too far as I might spend half of my budget to make sure I'm ahead or more. This happened in the most recent cycle I went all in for a 4 star at 485 miles and it cost me $7562, I put enough in to keep a big 6 school out of the picture, they finished at low. So if I hadn't of done that it would of gone to the coin toss.
6/13/2017 11:39 AM
At B- and up, I can pretty much compete for anyone if I'm willing to go all the way in on promises and visits, assuming I have a not-awful preference match, and can devote a reasonable number of APs. Obviously, it's better if those kids are local, where going all-in doesn't suck up half my budget. At C+ or lower, I think twice about going all in for anyone I think a big fish may want, because at 2 full prestige levels, you start getting knocked out of signing range when your opponent matches your effort/promises.

Scenario 1 - if preferences are great, and the recruit is worth it, maybe. But I'll start with promises. Sometimes those are enough to keep others moving on. I don't do visits for kids that far away until I have to.

Scenario 2 - 800 miles is a little out of my typical all-in range. I usually only scout out to about 400 miles in the east, 750 in the west.

Scenario 3 - the only "bad" preferences in this scenario I'm even looking at are style and conference strength, and even for those, I'm not too concerned, if it's a guy I'm willing to offer promises to. If the guy wants a rebuild, I'm not worried about bigger programs having a better match. And if he wants to go far away, I'll still have a pretty clear advantage because going all-in is considerably cheaper for me than anyone who would get this advantage. For offense and defense, the worst I can be is neutral. I'm at the point where my longevity and conference strengths are at worst neutral. And I personally don't think style matters all that much. Even if it does, one bad match can be overcome with AP effort.

The key in all scenarios is whether this is a guy I'm willing to offer promises to. If I am, I offer them as soon as possible, and always before extending any visits.
6/13/2017 11:58 AM
I don't really do battles too often. The times I would consider battling is if the recruit is close to me. I hope that if I battle hate this time, people will stay away in the future.
6/13/2017 12:03 PM
I think the term "all in" should include promised start and minutes. They are huge.
6/13/2017 12:09 PM
Posted by Benis on 6/13/2017 12:09:00 PM (view original):
I think the term "all in" should include promised start and minutes. They are huge.
Ya I agree, with these im thinking promised starts + Minutes (15+) and your going 20 HV and CV. Are promises still huge if he doesn't value them? If he has no preference on play time and you offer a start, is this still a big deal?
6/13/2017 12:25 PM
Honestly, to me, it's an ap thing. You get 50 to 80 a cycle consistently, then you are talking about competing. Unless nobody is battling, I am always 40 up on a recruit. And I check preferences a lot. I made a system where vg is worth 1, good 0,5, bad -0,5 and very bad -1. I normally do not battle all-in when my score is under 2,5. Unless, I can look up on my opponent's prefs and see he is not better than what I have got. Looking at your scenarios, I would not touch scenario 3, heck I prolly would not even categorized the player you are talking about.

Scenario 1 : It depends. Am I battling a A- to A+ team. Can I make an appraisal of its prefs, am I in the lead?

Scenario 2 : Most definetly going for it. But I am a lurker putting huge ap and hoping he goes vh fast so I can just build slowly and make him think I am scared. And he hopefully drops his guard (ap).
6/13/2017 12:25 PM
Posted by zorzii on 6/13/2017 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, to me, it's an ap thing. You get 50 to 80 a cycle consistently, then you are talking about competing. Unless nobody is battling, I am always 40 up on a recruit. And I check preferences a lot. I made a system where vg is worth 1, good 0,5, bad -0,5 and very bad -1. I normally do not battle all-in when my score is under 2,5. Unless, I can look up on my opponent's prefs and see he is not better than what I have got. Looking at your scenarios, I would not touch scenario 3, heck I prolly would not even categorized the player you are talking about.

Scenario 1 : It depends. Am I battling a A- to A+ team. Can I make an appraisal of its prefs, am I in the lead?

Scenario 2 : Most definetly going for it. But I am a lurker putting huge ap and hoping he goes vh fast so I can just build slowly and make him think I am scared. And he hopefully drops his guard (ap).
For scenario 1 you are definitely battling a big 6 solid team A- to A+. Preferences are not in his favor, he doesn't want to be close to home (which the school is within 250 miles) He doesn't want success and wants to play. So all the preferences are good for you and bad for him. However it is still a powerhouse program.
6/13/2017 12:28 PM
Does the recruit have wants to play? You need 60 to 80 ap then yeah I would do it hoping for a vh-h, vh-vh or a high high-vh
6/13/2017 12:39 PM
Posted by bagger288 on 6/13/2017 12:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 6/13/2017 12:09:00 PM (view original):
I think the term "all in" should include promised start and minutes. They are huge.
Ya I agree, with these im thinking promised starts + Minutes (15+) and your going 20 HV and CV. Are promises still huge if he doesn't value them? If he has no preference on play time and you offer a start, is this still a big deal?
Yes, promises are a big deal for all players, especially if you make them before visits. And 15 minutes is not all in. There is a big difference between 15 and 25.
6/13/2017 2:28 PM
Seems misleading seble compared AP's to letters and phone calls in 2.0.
6/13/2017 3:16 PM
Here's some thought: as an A- with 4 VG and 1G, I went "all in" averaging 65ish att pts, all visits, minutes and starts on a local 5 star. The team I was battling was an A+ with the same preferences and after the 2nd day of signings I got bumped to moderate. The other team was a high A+ and I was a mid A-.

So so what I'm saying is there is never a good time to lose an all in battle but to me your circumstances laid out above would all but guarantee a loss. If you h ave lots of good prefs and the recruit is local then maybe do it if you have all other recruits locked up.
6/13/2017 3:59 PM
Posted by thewizard17 on 6/13/2017 3:16:00 PM (view original):
Seems misleading seble compared AP's to letters and phone calls in 2.0.
Well yeah, you could dump hundreds of letters on a guy in the previous version too, and it had some effect. As it is, I'm convinced most people still generally overestimate how powerful those points are. Their power relative to other teams depends on your division, prestige, and preference matches. As far as I can recall, I've only averaged more than 50 attention points per cycle on one guy, and that was a 5 star who wanted to play and was going to sign early, so there was a premium on those early points.
6/13/2017 5:44 PM
"The reason I'm asking is I get wary about going all in for a recruit too far as I might spend half of my budget to make sure I'm ahead or more. This happened in the most recent cycle I went all in for a 4 star at 485 miles and it cost me $7562, I put enough in to keep a big 6 school out of the picture, they finished at low. So if I hadn't of done that it would of gone to the coin toss."

This definitely is tricky. But try to gauge what the other team is doing and how strong they look. If they're in battles for other players against high prestige schools then they probably can't afford to do the same against you. Or they may have a huge distance disadvantage which again makes it hard for them to spend 20 HVs. Sometimes it's worth doing a little digging into what other teams are up to.
6/13/2017 6:19 PM
"Well yeah, you could dump hundreds of letters on a guy in the previous version too, and it had some effect. "

I thought if you did that then the recruit might eventually get ****** off and it would start to count negatively.
6/13/2017 6:20 PM
Posted by Benis on 6/13/2017 6:20:00 PM (view original):
"Well yeah, you could dump hundreds of letters on a guy in the previous version too, and it had some effect. "

I thought if you did that then the recruit might eventually get ****** off and it would start to count negatively.
This is very true, I believe the cap was 30 or 40 and they would get irritated. I guess overall depending on where you FSS you can find out where schools are and who they are battling. The other issue is I don't FSS the entire country. I do my immediate surroundings and then deep scout with camps and local camp. Then I individual pick players and push to level 4. So if I don't see a player I cant see the battle. hmm IDK I want to make a run at a 5star recruit but it seems I need to make sure everything is right for me to make that run.
6/13/2017 6:57 PM
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