Ok, getting into the bubble watch a bit later than usually. Enjoy
OVC
Locks:
Iona (11-0, WIS: 2, SOS: 6): 4 top 40 wins including Ws over Harvard and Samford. Safe.
Samford (10-1, WIS: 6, SOS: 42): A W over YSU and a complete lack of missteps against any teams outside the top ten have Samford safe too
Should be in:
Work to do:
Tennessee Martin (9-2, WIS: 27, SOS: 81): One of the SIMs with a serious chance of maing the playoffs, with one loss to Iona. If this team were to win out vs all SIMs(not a given at all), then it would likely make the playoffs. If not it could be close, tendency no.
NEC
Nobody is quite safe yet in the NEC
Locks:
Should be in:
Towson (10-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 112): Made a big step toward the playoffs today, by beating Lehigh and improving the SOS even more than the record. So far the only loss had been to a strong Villanova. Unless there is a loss to a SIM, Towson should be safe.
Work to do:
Albany (6-5, WIS: 32, SOS: 4) The OOC was very challenging, playing 5 top 15 teams…and it did not go well (0-5 with some close losses). Albany has since bounced back, but if Albany should lose in the conference championship game, then the SOS needs to be stellar. Right now it is, but it might drop a bit th next two days. The only surefire way to make the field is to win the conference.
Lehigh (9-2, WIS: 33, SOS: 113): 9-0 vs mostly forgettable SIMs, and then 2 losses to decent human teams have Lehigh on the bubble. If they win out, I think they may just squeeze back in. Still, I wouldn’t bet the house on Lehigh extending the streak of 17 playoff appearances in a row.
MEAC
Should be in:
Norfolk State (9-2, WIS: 16, SOS: 51): 0-2 vs humans, 9-0 vs SIMs. Still as the SOS is ok, even a potential loss to FAM would be unlikely to cost NSU the playoffs. And NSU is the favorite given that catswin has won 42 of the last 43 conference championships.
Work to do:
Florida A&M (8-3, WIS: 31, SOS: 80): It’s a funny resume. There are two wins over decent human opponents who might make the playoffs, and then there are three losses to SIMs! Now the goodwill by those mentioned wins is kind of used up, and I would assume that FAM now has to beat NSU to stay in the field.
Ivy League
The Ivy remains the league with far and away the best depth.
Locks:
Colgate (11-0, WIS: 1, SOS: 1): Now there is a sterling resume: Number one SOS, and unbeaten 7-0 vs humans who all are in the top 30.
Pennsylvania (10-1, WIS: 10, SOS: 66): At this point even two losses should not really cost Penn the playoffs. A rematch with Colgate could be interesting.
Should be in:
Cornell (9-2, WIS: 13, SOS: 28): I am a bit wondering how this is not a top 50 SOS yet, given 6 games vs humans, all of whom are in playoff contention or locks. Still, despite todays loss to Colgate, the playoffs are a high probability for Cornell, seeing as even a loss to Fordham would be easily absorbable.
Fordham (9-2, WIS: 12, SOS: 16): A lot of close games this season for Fordham so far. Two OT wins have things in the right direction, despite a 3 point loss to Brown and todays 1 point defeat to Princeton. Now with Cornell and Colgate there is potential for two more losses. However, with the SOS likely improving further Fordham should probably be ok
Work to do:
Princeton (8-3, WIS: 25, SOS: 25): How to make the playoffs? Well it sure helps if you can pull off last minute field goals to win games, like Princeton did to Fordham today. That and wins over ISU, Dartmouth and Brown have Princeton in a position, where beating the two remaining SIMs should safely see them in. An unnecessary loss however could render this very uncomfortably close.
Brown (7-4, WIS: 23, SOS: 2): Brown has some nice resume building wins over Colgate, Cornell and Harvard. However there are also 4 losses and a game with Penn still on the docket the SOS has to stay real nice, should Brown lose that game. 5 Loss teams usually need about a top 5 SOS to make the field. And I assume Browns will end up there, but this is not quite a done deal yet.
Harvard (7-4, WIS: 29, SOS: 20): Currently 0-3 vs humans, but the SOS is where Harvard still has a shot at squeezing in. A loss to Dartmouth tomorrow however, would probably keep Harvard out of the field. I got Harvard as a favorite though
Needs help:
Dartmouth (6-5, WIS: 37, SOS: 5): Flawless vs SIMs, but hasn’t beaten a human opponent yet. I am not sure Dartmouth could get in by winning out, but it could at least get close. But beating Harvard tomorrow is indispensable for sure.
Gateway
Locks:
FIU (11-0, WIS: 8, SOS: 95): After beating some decentish SIMs and –more importantly YSU, FIU is quite save.
Should be in:
Northern Iowa (10-1, WIS: 14, SOS: 83): Unless NIU loses tomorrow to a SIM, this team is absolutely certain to make the playoffs, thanks to Ws over Albany and ISU. However NSUs sight are probably pinned higher –i.e. repeating as the conference champ.
Work to do:
Youngstown State (8-3, WIS: 19, SOS: 12): Close to should be in, however, as there are 3 losses and likely a worsening SOS, YSU cannot afford to slip up before the CCG, and even a loss there may make it close, although I would assume YSU would get in with 4 losses. So overall the position is good.
Needs help:
Indiana State (6-5, WIS: 40, SOS: 64): 4 losses with this sched would have been close, but the loss to a Sim earlier in the season probably did ISU in.
Big Sky
Locks:
Cal Poly (11-0, WIS: 5, SOS: 43): 3 top 30 wins have CPSU carefree about the playoffs and likely focusing on maybe winning a conference championship. That is, if CPSU also gets past PSU.
Montana State (10-1, WIS: 9, SOS: 11): MSU is one of the two possible opponents and 3-2 vs humans. The game vs TSU tomorrow is kind of a conference semifinal.
Texas State (10-1, WIS: 11, SOS: 58): TSU is the other possible opponent of CPSU. So far ISU is the best win TSU has, but since the SOS is ok, that is sure to be good enough, even if things were to go wrong tomorrow.
Work to do:
Portland State (8-3, WIS: 24, SOS: 40): Thanks to a W over JMU, I think PSU might get in, even if they got a 4th loss on monday, but it would render things close. A misstep to the SIM tomorrow would be a complete no go however.
A-10
Locks:
Villanova (11-0, WIS: 3, SOS: 39): 3:0 vs human teams. Gonna be some good seeding for nacorwin.
Should be in:
JMU (8-3, WIS: 18, SOS: 19): Unless there is a surprise loss to a SIM, JMU will make the playoffs for sure. And even if such a misshap were to happen, JMU would probably get in anyway.
Work to do:
New Hampshire (9-2, WIS: 34, SOS: 101): NHU beat a cupcakey OOC and has the SOS to show for it. However, beating Maine today was a step in the right direction. Still Thursdays loss to a Sim means that NHSU doesn’t really have any margin for error, and even a loss in the CCG is likely not sustainable.
Maine (8-3, WIS: 28, SOS: 53): Second best ranked SIM, not unlikely to make the playoffs, if it can beat the two remaining SIMs, despite todays loss to NHSU.
SWAC
Lock:
Texas Southern (11-0, WIS: 7, SOS: 93): Building on its stellar first rebuilding season, going just as fast.
Work to do:
S. Baton Rouge (8-3, WIS: 26, SOS: 45): Thanks to a good OOC, SBR is in on the right track. Unless there is a loss to a SIM, this should all be ok. An unlikely loss to a SIM, however would be a problem.
Jackson State (9-2, WIS: 30, SOS: 104): Two losses in cross division have JSU square on thee bubble, but the signs are that JSU would be an underdog in thee CCG, and with the SOS not being all that great, it is not a given the margin for JSU will be big enough to sustain a loss there. Doing something for margin of victory in the next two games could be important.
Southern Conference
With app state having gone SIM, this conference is looking for a new alpha dog. If things go wron, it could be a SIM winning stealing a bid though.
Should be in:
Tennessee Chattanooga (10-1, WIS: 15, SOS: 86): UTC is 0-2 vs humans, however today it lost to a SIM (Elon). If that hadn’t happened, this would already be a lock. As it is, unless this happens again, and maybe twice, UTC should still clearly make the playoffs. However, this could cost UTC the conference.
Work to do:
The Citadel (10-1 WIS: 21, SOS: 99): Winning today got the citadel into a much better position. The only loss so far is a overtime breakdown vs UTC. However the SOS is about to get worse (remaining opponents are 3-19), so even a second loss in the championship could make it closeish, tendency still good side. A loss to a SIM before definitely would evaporate the margin for error though.
Needs help:
Wofford (7-4, WIS: 41, SOS: 77): Its not really todays loss to the citadel which is the problem, more the earlier one to a SIM. Now Wofford needs to win out –with clear scores- and needs a lot of chaos ahead of themselves to have any chance.
Autobid only:
Elon (8-3, WIS: 64, SOS: 116): There is no way Elon gets an at large, however after todays win over UTC (who in turn beat the citadel earlier) there is a chance Elon could get the autobid.
PFL
Lock:
Valparaiso (11-0, WIS: 4, SOS: 38): Going for a conference threepeat with a nice OOC resume. However for that coach benzyl needs to take care of SDU on Monday.
Should be in:
VMI (8-3, WIS: 17, SOS: 7): Has three losses, but all are to top ten teams. Wins over Brown, SDU and JSU outweight these. The SOS will take a minor hit from here on out, but VMI would have to lose to a SIM or even two, to miss out.
Work to do:
San Diego (10-1, WIS: 22, SOS: 107): In his 4th season, chrondon has SDU finally in position to start making the playoffs. Wins over Jacksonville and SBR were good signs. However, with Valpo still coming up, things aren’t completely under control yet. A win over SIM Butler tomorrow, would create somewhat of a feeling of comfort though.
Jacksonville (7-4, WIS: 35, SOS: 37): Had a really unlucky cross division draw and went 0-3 with an overtime loss. Todays win over AP was therefore crucial to stay in the hunt. This is a situation, where Jacksonville may just get square on the bubble if it wins out. However, if AP loses a game, that might be bad for Jacksonville, as it would mean a conference championship game, that this rebuild is likely to lose, so they also depend on AP.
Needs help:
Austin Peay (7-4, WIS: 49, SOS: 92): Leads in the division race, but unless AP can actually pull the upset in the CCG off, that is probably not going to help here. To SIM losses, outweight the lone good win over SBR.