Posted by rednu on 6/30/2017 5:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by rudyrude9 on 6/30/2017 3:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Trentonjoe on 6/20/2017 7:30:00 PM (view original):
I would just like to point out that catching an open ended straight or flush on the river card are way worse than 3:1. The Belmont Stakes winner was like 5:1. Getting heads twice in a row is 4:1. Getting laid while wearing jorts is like 100:1 (ok, that's never happen to me).
Probability is a ***** sometimes....
The odds of hitting an open ended straight on the river is actually 2.2 to 1 or 31.3%. The odds of hitting a flush on the river is 1.9 to 1 or 35.5%.
Assuming the game in question is Texas Hold'em, there would be 46 unknown cards (52 in the deck - 4 on the board - 2 in your hand = 46) and 8 cards that could make an open-ended straight. That's roughly 17.4% (8/46) For the flush, there would be 9 possible cards to hit and complete the flush from that deck of 46 unknowns, or a touch over 19.5%. Not sure where your numbers came from, but there's a major leak in your game if you're chasing and expecting to hit at the percentages you list.
Maybe he was hoping one of his poker opponents was reading this thread.
Free poker tip of the day: An easy way to calculate approximate odds of making a hand on the river is to double your outs. EX: for an oesd: 8 x 2 = 16% (real odds 17.4%) and flush draw: 9 x 2 = 18 (real odds 19.6%).
Bonus poker tip of the day: An easy way to calculate approximate odds of making a hand on the turn is to double your outs twice (quadruple the outs if that math is easier for you). EX: for an oesd: 8 x 2 x 2 = 32% and flush draw: 9 x 2 x 2 = 36%.