I don't think it's the right approach to harp on individual examples, as there is almost always a counter example.

In this case, look at jfranco77, also a former winner. Last year, he was ranked 44th due to a poor performance the year before where he finished 68th. He finished 7th.

This year, under the old formula, the same thing likely would have happened to Lazerhawks and dougpalm (two guys with over 100 championships who had an off year). I'm sure there are plenty of cases where the opposite would be true as well.

The point here being that just looking at a few examples, as we've done here, doesn't tell the full story of a forecast.

I blame a wis techie for my utter defeat last year. I got killed by fatigue. Yes, I should have had more innings in this particular league, but I had over 1300 innings so I didn't expect fatigue until later on in the season. In the beginning of the season, I had two extra inning games (one 16 innings) and then my starter lasted only 1 inning. Sim decided to pitch all my set-up guys who then became hopelessly in the red after the 8th game of the season. I lost most of the rest of the games and finished dead last, despite trying everything to correct it. I agree that I should have had more innings, especially due to the type of league. But I didn't deserve what happened.

Posted by Lazerhawks on 7/3/2017 2:12:00 PM (view original):
I blame a wis techie for my utter defeat last year. I got killed by fatigue. Yes, I should have had more innings in this particular league, but I had over 1300 innings so I didn't expect fatigue until later on in the season. In the beginning of the season, I had two extra inning games (one 16 innings) and then my starter lasted only 1 inning. Sim decided to pitch all my set-up guys who then became hopelessly in the red after the 8th game of the season. I lost most of the rest of the games and finished dead last, despite trying everything to correct it. I agree that I should have had more innings, especially due to the type of league. But I didn't deserve what happened.

You deserve a prize just for spending money on the game again after that.

Posted by mildnhazy on 7/1/2017 9:29:00 AM (view original):
It's weird that last year I was ranked 6th, finished 5th and am now ranked lower than owners who finished behind me or didn't play (jmissirlis)

Agreed. I'm way overrated due to some tremendous luck in the 2014 tourney. I will regress to the mean.

I think my point was missed. It really doesn't matter anyway. You've been great in your two WISCs jmissirlis and definitely derserve a high ranking.

KOTH is replacing The Taint but will simply take his place in the Owner Rankings due to alignments already being set.

d_rock97 is replacing johnmacdan but will simply take his place in the Owner Rankings due to alignments already being set. (I will update the sheet later today)

The guy who bailed jonah12 was ranked 29 while never playing in the tourney while others with more WS Titles and high placings in this tourney are ranked lower just because jonah12 has a higher win %. Now we all have to deal with out of balance leagues because of this change to the owner rankings this year. Before folks think I'm posting because I got biggest ranking change from year to year, I don't care about my ranking and never have. However, I don't understand how someone who has never played in the tourney, let alone done well in the tourney, was ranked that high. Just my two cents!

JJ, I agree that it is frustrating to have people bail at the last minute, due to the potential imbalance it causes. However, it's worth restating that the formula did not change that much. For reference, jonah12 would have been ranked 34 under the old formula -- not that far off from 29. I definitely get the frustration at where this leaves us, but I don't think the rankings should be the target here.

wink0094 has taken one of the open spots. Another owner has expressed interest via sitemail and will give me confirmation by Monday.

daddyzander is taking jonah12's spot.

It would be interesting to see the final round 2 standings with the pre-season ranking also shown.

Rank	Pre-Rank	Owner
----------	----------	---------------------
1	1	brianjw
2	12	doctorcc
3	9	ozomatli
4	5	schwarze
5	2	discodemo
6	18	jfranco77
7	20	dougpalm
8	8	mildnhazy
9	3	rbow923
10	11	buddhagamer
11	48	calhoop
12	36	Fusion27s
13	15	Relkcirts
14	22	redwingscup
15	59	beauchamp
16	19	bighooze
17	62	frank_drebin
18	51	magicdreamer
19	27	batandball
20	43	mllama54
21	4	jbohrman
22	28	charliembg
23	14	barracuda3
24	70	Jtpsops

For the Top 24 owners, there's a .561 correlation, which isn't bad. But, when we add in all 96 owners, we get .668, which is actually fairly decent.

The 96-owner correlation should be higher. To properly do the 24-owner correlation, redo the pre-season rankings to get seeds 1 thru 24. Then test the correlation. For example, Jtpsops would be 24, frank_drebin would be 23, etc.

Oh, good point. Using these rankings, we get .599

Rank	Pre-Rank	Owner
----------	----------	----------------------
1	1	brianjw
2	9	doctorcc
3	7	ozomatli
4	5	schwarze
5	2	discodemo
6	12	jfranco77
7	14	dougpalm
8	6	mildnhazy
9	3	rbow923
10	8	buddhagamer
11	20	calhoop
12	18	Fusion27s
13	11	Relkcirts
14	15	redwingscup
15	22	beauchamp
16	13	bighooze
17	23	frank_drebin
18	21	magicdreamer
19	16	batandball
20	19	mllama54
21	4	jbohrman
22	17	charliembg
23	10	barracuda3
24	24	Jtpsops