Why do these guys suck? Topic

Why did this guy have a 4.5 ERA last season? I had higher expectations for him, am I missing something? I figured the average splits would be offset by the high control and pitches.. The high GB and Velocity shouldve also been a positive factor..

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=7861876

I also expected more from this guy.. Why does he suck? Again, average splits and average control but figured the 4 good pitches would help correct this..

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=7800509

Could the answer be that I have these below average Catchers? Cat1 and Cat2
7/12/2017 3:38 PM (edited)
You posted the same pitcher twice.
7/12/2017 3:36 PM
fixed
7/12/2017 3:39 PM
In my experience, high splits can offset average pitches, but not vice versa. Given the ratings, I would expect Vogelbach to be league average, and without knowing the precise numbers for that world, his stats seem to be what the usual league average is.
7/12/2017 3:56 PM
Almost spot on for league average..
Franchise Owner G CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV OBP SLG WHIP ERA
Average: - 162 5 1 81 81 43 60 1446.1 1512 784 729 220 511 1056 .266 .332 .432 1.40 4.54
7/12/2017 4:07 PM
Pretty much. Splits that average low/mid 60s can be league average(1.30 WHIP/4.10 ERA in most worlds) with good pitches. Put them in a hitter's park, like NO, and you'll get slightly below.
7/12/2017 4:07 PM
I expected him to be similar or better than this guy who has close ratings.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=7800387
7/12/2017 4:47 PM
Posted by psychoch on 7/12/2017 3:56:00 PM (view original):
In my experience, high splits can offset average pitches, but not vice versa. Given the ratings, I would expect Vogelbach to be league average, and without knowing the precise numbers for that world, his stats seem to be what the usual league average is.
I disagree, Player Profile: Bum Sweeney is a close comparison and he's on track to make that league's Hall of Fame (~3.20 career era, ~.650 win %, multiple WS rings)

Factors I'm looking for in your situation-
-home ballpark- Richmond is neutral therefore not an apparent factor
-defense- 10 unearned runs seems like an indicator of badness but last season's +/- was +86-14 (unless you just acquired him and I'm looking at the wrong team??). If it's the same team then defense is not an apparent factor, but if you acquired him then check the other team's defense
-OAV- .280 is way worse than those splits would predict, you're expecting closer to ~.255-.260
-catcher defense is a negative factor to both OAV and stolen base liability
-if pitches do indeed relate to ISO power then he's doing fine in that department, about expected. lowering his OAV needs to be the primary focus
-league player pool- observationally, the intro player pool for leagues is dramatically better than the newgen player pool (due to factors such as owner turnover resetting training budgets to 10, etc). In other words, go to franchise rankings in your year6 league and compare them to league averages to a year44 league. It could just be that your year6 guy is simply facing a stronger player pool of hitters, and therefore those splits don't exist in a vacuum, they mean different things relatively because of the log5 relationship of batter v pitcher

7/12/2017 7:12 PM
It is a merged world, most of the teams that merged were pretty deep with talent..

im gonna give this fool another season..
7/13/2017 1:45 AM
It's just one season and his peripherals were good. The SO/BB ratio is good, only 23 homeruns in 190 innings which is not bad. He gave up a lot of hits which can just be bad luck, or maybe a weak defense behind. Some guys take a couple years to meet their potential even if their ratings are good. With more experience, I think this guy will pitch very well.

I've had plenty of success with high control, high pitches, mediocre splits. I've seen a guy with low 40's splits pitch 220 innings of sub 3 ERA for 3 straight years. Your pitcher will be good he just needs more time.
7/13/2017 12:29 PM
Posted by willsauve on 7/13/2017 1:45:00 AM (view original):
It is a merged world, most of the teams that merged were pretty deep with talent..

im gonna give this fool another season..
there's your answer. Pitcher is facing an unusually strong batch of hitters. Here is a copy of your AL franchise ranks for the current Topps season 6:

World>Reports>Franchise Rankings>Filters: ML, AL, Starting Lineup, Current, Sort by- Power (descending)
Franchise
ovr
spd
con
pow
vL
vR
eye
Br
p/
New Orleans 81 63 72 81 73 70 74 71 55
Pittsburgh 79 73 78 79 76 67 64 50 42
Portland 79 70 72 77 74 66 77 48 52
Santa Fe 78 49 73 74 71 65 64 60 51
Ottawa 75 54 67 72 64 54 64 60 37
Salem 71 55 53 71 67 60 67 49 46
Trenton 71 58 58 71 73 64 70 45 44
St. Louis 74 66 69 69 65 70 66 63 42
Memphis 74 54 59 68 72 63 68 57 44
Dover 73 51 65 66 71 66 73 58 51
Rochester 73 63 69 66 70 72 65 54 38
Kansas City 70 50 56 64 67 63 64 48 38
Jacksonville 75 60 69 61 72 65 71 59 45
Vancouver 76 73 65 60 73 65 74 60 46
Wichita 73 50 69 58 71 71 71 53 53
Cheyenne 66 51 69 52 65 70 65 56 38

compared to your Mantle league season 45:
Franchise
ovr
spd
con
pow
vL
vR
eye
Br
p/
Monterrey 73 50 75 75 56 63 60 58 44
Detroit 72 61 60 69 62 61 58 65 43
Helena 75 54 69 69 65 64 74 60 48
Charlotte 74 60 61 67 68 64 57 65 44
Atlanta 81 69 64 66 68 65 73 66 47
Scranton 75 51 70 65 71 72 61 59 43
Santa Cruz 71 52 67 63 62 59 65 58 45
Ottawa 70 56 54 61 60 64 62 54 48
Cincinnati 72 58 64 60 70 56 71 57 46
Syracuse 72 58 61 60 65 65 57 57 52
Kansas City 69 44 59 59 64 65 73 51 45
Jacksonville 72 62 59 57 61 70 69 55 42
Oakland 63 37 57 54 68 62 58 47 44
Trenton 70 47 75 52 70 64 59 59 44
Toledo 73 68 70 50 67 61 60 59 53
Los Angeles 72 55 68 48 62 66 69 61 45

Compared to Bum Sweeney's NL player pool in Rickey 25:
Franchise ovr
spd
con
pow
vL
vR
eye
Br
Montreal 69 53 63 79 62 57 68 57
Washington D.C. 75 54 67 78 69 67 64 49
Ottawa 77 67 71 71 67 64 71 64
Dover 74 60 69 67 65 60 65 61
Texas 74 61 61 65 59 56 61 65
Salem 69 59 55 63 63 60 63 59
Oakland 70 41 61 62 58 60 63 57
Tampa Bay 71 60 67 61 67 67 69 61
Wichita 72 75 58 59 62 56 61 58
New Orleans 72 58 72 59 67 66 64 57
Fresno 71 65 63 57 56 61 58 62
Norfolk 68 52 66 56 58 61 68 58
Scottsdale 64 47 55 54 54 62 60 57
Mexico City 72 64 69 54 63 60 70 60
Trenton 72 61 68 53 63 55 70 64
Toronto 73 62 62 49 63 61 62 62

(Topps6 averages: OVR 74.25, speed 58.75, contact 66.4375, power 68.0625, vL 70.25, vR 65.6875, eye 68.5625, BR 55.6875)
(Mantle45 averages: OVR 72.125, speed 55.125, contact 64.5625, power 60.9375, vL 64.9375, vR 63.8125, eye 64.125, BR 58.1875)
(Rickey25 averages: OVR 71.4375, spd 58.6875, contact 64.1875, power 61.6875, vL 62.25, vR 60.8125, eye 64.8125, BR 59.4375)

So yeah, it was not just my imagination ... your player pool for this merged league is DRASTICALLY better than average. So splits of 53-71 DO NOT exist in a vacuum! They are relative to the league average hitter of 68-70, instead of the 60-65/62-62 range that you would see in other leagues. Important concept
7/13/2017 1:06 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/12/2017 4:07:00 PM (view original):
Pretty much. Splits that average low/mid 60s can be league average(1.30 WHIP/4.10 ERA in most worlds) with good pitches. Put them in a hitter's park, like NO, and you'll get slightly below.
Actually, this was it. And it was confirmed when willsauve posted his league's averages.

Those guys aren't studs. They are SP3/4 types.
7/13/2017 1:21 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/13/2017 1:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/12/2017 4:07:00 PM (view original):
Pretty much. Splits that average low/mid 60s can be league average(1.30 WHIP/4.10 ERA in most worlds) with good pitches. Put them in a hitter's park, like NO, and you'll get slightly below.
Actually, this was it. And it was confirmed when willsauve posted his league's averages.

Those guys aren't studs. They are SP3/4 types.
He didn't play in New Orleans he played in Richmond, the team moved in offseason. Keep up

In a different world with a weaker (normal) hitter pool, OAV would be at least .025 better and ERA should be literally a full entire run lower. Guy could have stats resembling a solid SP2 in Mantle (3.50 ERA 1.20 WHIP), but in his Topps league the guy is a SP4 (4.50/1.40) because of league-relativity not because of bad home park or bad defense or anything else like that.
7/13/2017 2:19 PM
Having played in Mantle, no, he couldn't. Nor could he be a solid 2 in Moonlight or Coop. He's a weak 3/solid 4 in a good world.
7/13/2017 2:27 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/13/2017 2:27:00 PM (view original):
Having played in Mantle, no, he couldn't. Nor could he be a solid 2 in Moonlight or Coop. He's a weak 3/solid 4 in a good world.
Just because you're in a league doesn't make an entire league's player pool great or not great. It doesn't matter who the owners are- the player pool is the player pool, it speaks for itself. The best lineup in your Mantle AL is the 4th or 5th best lineup in the Topps AL, it's not even close to comparable. One league has an average vR of 66 and average Power of 68, the other has average vR of 64 and Power of 61. Power 60.9375, vL 64.9375, vR 63.8125, eye 64.125 vs power 68.0625, vL 70.25, vR 65.6875, eye 68.5625

Do you actually even know how log5 works? Use the google machine to help yourself understand how HBD's ERA outcomes are affected by batting average calibration (splits) and XBH multiplier (power)

The OP is "why does my guy suck so bad" and the answer is "relativity"
7/13/2017 3:23 PM
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