tkechub has announced in the Big 10 Conference Chat that he will be leaving Penn State after 63 seasons at the end of this season. He has won 8 NCs and 18 CCs. If you want to see something impressive - go check out the GUESS ratings for his team for the past 50-60 seasons...... Hopefully he will come back to Wilkinson after a small break. Life will be a little more dull not following cfbfan18's love affair with tkechub in the Big 10 chat.

This Penn State job opening will be the biggest job opening I can remember in the past 25 seasons in Wilkinson. I expect dozens of coaches to apply for this job. I ultimately expect a coach at a current elite program to get the job. This will probably lead to a couple of elite programs changing coaches.

I think the previous five seasons results has a larger weight than I previously thought. I participated in some conference chat and sitemails with coaches that applied for elite jobs and I compared the winning resume against the other applicants. I'm not claiming to have a complete understanding of how it works - I just think the past five seasons are important.

Here is my potential ranking for coaches IF they apply for the Penn State job at the end of this season.

Actually lets disqualify a few great coaches first who do not have an A reputation or better. These coaches would be in my rankings if their reputation allowed it:
cfbfan18
potter444
ebel331

"Young Coaches" group
1- nortonis: Past five seasons: 5 Level 5 bowls, 5 CCs, 2 NCs. Total 37 Seasons with 13 CCs, 2 NCs.
2- blitziscomin: Past five seasons: 5 Level 5 bowls, 3 CCs, 1 NC. Total 44 Seasons with 6 CCs, 1 NC.
3- jasonfreeman: Past five seasons: 5 Level 5 bowls 4 CCs. Total 23 Seasons with 13 CCs, 1 NC.
4- bama2448: Past five seasons: 5 Level 5 bowls, 5 CCs. Total 27 Seasons with 11 CCs,

"Old Timers" group
1- bkdries: Past five seasons 3 Level 5 bowls, 2 CCs playing in NC. Total 105 Seasons with 45 CCs and 12 NCs.
2- ez37: Past five seasons: 4 Level 5 bowls, 1 CC. Total 115 Seasons with 44 CCs and 7 NCs.
3- mpmershon: Past five seasons 2 Level 5 bowls, 1 CC. Total 133 Seasons with 26 CCs and 6 NCs.

The most challenging part of this for me is weighing the "Young Coaches" group to the "Old Timers". I think bkdries has to be ahead of nortonis if he wanted to leave Texas for Penn State. I think I'd favor ez37 ahead of nortonis also.

Here is my "final" Top 7 candidates for the Penn State job ranked in order:
1- bkdries
2- ez37
3- nortonis
4- blitziscomin
5- jasonfreeman
6- bama2448
7- mpmershon

I haven't spoken with any of these coaches so I don't know if they will all apply. I am expecting an elite opening at Texas, USC, Michigan, or Oklahoma after the Penn State job is filled.

I'll add another level of fun. If bkdries leaves Texas for Penn State who becomes the top candidate for Texas? I have stated publicly that the only two programs that I will leave Oklahoma for are Penn State and Texas. I'll probably apply to Texas if it becomes available. If my rankings are close to accurate ez37 and nortonis would have a better chance at Texas than myself.

Prediction #1:
bkdries leaves Texas for Penn State
ez37 leaves USC for Texas
jasonfreeman leaves California for USC

Prediction #2:
bkdries stays at Texas
ez37 leaves USC for Penn State
jasonfreeman leaves California for USC

Prediction #3:
bkdries stays at Texas and ez37 stays at USC
nortonis leaves Michigan for Penn State
jasonfreeman leaves California for Michigan


I'd love to see your comments about ranking Wilkinson current resumes and job change predictions!

I like the "Young Coaches" group. I think the most recent results are the determining factor for elite jobs. Being at an elite gives one an added advantage as well. The "Old Timers" group, has legends who i do not think will be moving unless they are bored.

Maybe i should do a Maze run with my thoughts?

jasonfreeman said in his interview that he is a RL alumni of California. I'm not sure he would leave them for just any elite coaching job.

From my experience applying to jobs recently, its Bowl Wins that are the main factor. From what I've seen, it's better to have a L5 win with no CC, than a CC with a L5 loss.

The winner of Texas/Bama will be the #1 candidate, after that if Nortonis wins his L5 bowl he'll be the clear #2 candidate. If Bama/Blitz/Freeman all win their games, I would expect the clear edge will go to Bama with 4 straight CC + L5 wins. I then expect it would go Freeman then Blitz in a tight race, because Freeman has the CC + L5 win, outweighing the NC Blitz won 3 seasons ago.

I would also have EZ behind Rutgers if they win their L5 bowl.

Posted by z32fanatic on 7/15/2017 5:26:00 PM (view original):
From my experience applying to jobs recently, its Bowl Wins that are the main factor. From what I've seen, it's better to have a L5 win with no CC, than a CC with a L5 loss.

The winner of Texas/Bama will be the #1 candidate, after that if Nortonis wins his L5 bowl he'll be the clear #2 candidate. If Bama/Blitz/Freeman all win their games, I would expect the clear edge will go to Bama with 4 straight CC + L5 wins. I then expect it would go Freeman then Blitz in a tight race, because Freeman has the CC + L5 win, outweighing the NC Blitz won 3 seasons ago.

I would also have EZ behind Rutgers if they win their L5 bowl.

This is why it is a fun topic for me - so many great coaches there doesn't appear to be a stand-alone favorite.

I thought about awags if he won the NC - but that would be 1 NC 1 CC and 1 Level 5 bowl in the past five seasons as he has been building Alabama.

bama2448 has owned the ACC but hasn't made it to the NC game. I was trying to guesstimate the weight of making it to the NC game in the past five seasons. Is it better to lose the NC game or win a Level 5. I'm leaning towards losing a NC game is better. nortonis has been to 2 NCs and won 2. I've been to 2 and won 1. Jason has been to 2 and lost both - although he won the NC six seasons ago and went to another NC game 7 seasons ago. Jason and bama2448 could both be easily ahead of me for the Penn State job (we will find out soon).

I looked at allen129's resume and I am rooting big time for him to get an elite. With back to back Level 5 appearances he is up and coming but I thought the coaches I listed have advantages with more Level 5 appearances and NC game appearances in the past five seasons.

It's been a long time so I don't remember where I got this but I thought it was from a developer chat... Resume is basically most recent 4 seasons with heavier weight toward most recent. I think you can mostly ignore career in the world

I'm surprised you don't have recent win totals on your summary... I thought wins at an Elite > BCS > MidMajor > IAA ... no?

As it sits now last 4 season wins

55 Nortonis
53 jasonfreeman (not elite wins)
52 bama
51 BK
49 EZ
47 Blitz
46 awags

Sounds like we are all mostly in agreement that Nortonis is #1, pending this season's title game, then there is a handful in the hunt.

Anyone want to make known they are going to apply? I don't think there is any disadvantage to announcing it.

Will be cool to see all the potential movement with top schools opening.

So I really hope bkdries doesnt apply for or get Penn State.. same with ez or anyone at a good elite. Im probably one of the few that stepped down from an elite (was not even close to being fired) except for OP/CJ bundle at OSU.

These jobs really should go to the best up and coming coaches... so pretty much everyone not in blitz's list (except jasonfreeman). What will annoy me more then anything is someone that has an elite in 6 other worlds and just picks up Penn State so he can sit on it for the next 100 seasons

Posted by genuvar on 7/15/2017 6:33:00 PM (view original):
So I really hope bkdries doesnt apply for or get Penn State.. same with ez or anyone at a good elite. Im probably one of the few that stepped down from an elite (was not even close to being fired) except for OP/CJ bundle at OSU.

These jobs really should go to the best up and coming coaches... so pretty much everyone not in blitz's list (except jasonfreeman). What will annoy me more then anything is someone that has an elite in 6 other worlds and just picks up Penn State so he can sit on it for the next 100 seasons

Would think Penn St not as good in Wilk as all those Big East schools increase their prestige.

Posted by ebel331 on 7/15/2017 6:45:00 PM:
Would think Penn St not as good in Wilk as all those Big East schools increase their prestige.

I have tried to rank the Wilkinson D1A elite jobs currently and it is difficult with so many great coaches in every conference. Penn St has lost a lot of its recruiting area as teams have filled in the surrounding areas. They are in the same division with Notre Dame and Ohio State. Indiana has an amazing coach now. Michigan is a powerhouse. Not an easy path to winning the Big 10. I'm sure the new Penn St coach will have some territory wars out on the recruiting trail.

But then I look at other elites and they are all challenging in Wilkinson. In a lot of worlds I think Penn State is #1 program and Texas is #2 and the rest of the elite programs can fight over a distant third ranking.

Texas has become difficult in Wilkinson. Several great coaches are nearby so Texas doesn't get a lot of uncontested blue chip recruits as in other worlds. Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Colorado have established programs. Texas A&M and Missouri are building solid programs and aren't easy wins. Houston is taking top recruits and has built a Level 5 program. Texas can't pencil in all of the top instate recruits and an easy path to the Big 12 CC.

The SEC elites are challenging jobs. All four elite programs are established. South Carolina is becoming a powerhouse under treyomo. You have to beat a combination of potter444/awags/mpmershon/deenhorvie/treyomo to win the conference. That isn't a small task.

The ACC has been owned by Miami but there are four human coaches in each division now. If a good coach comes to Florida State that conference becomes even more difficult.

The PAC has eight coaches fighting over the west coast recruits with 6 WAC coaches recruiting there also. USC doesn't look like an easy job to me.

If I was a coach at a non-elite school I wouldn't know which elite job would be my preferred job.

This is a fun subject. I agree with ebel that the hiring process is only really looking at most recent success. I agree with z32 that a bowl win is crucial. I would also like to add that I believe conference titles are very important also. That being said I believe that nortonis is the resume to beat unless bkdries wins the title. I'm not even sure that is enough if nortonis wins his bowl too.

I would also like to add that the PSU job in Wilk is probably not as good a job when a full Big East is pulling down $80k+ in bowl money.

Posted by blitziscomin on 7/15/2017 6:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by z32fanatic on 7/15/2017 5:26:00 PM (view original):
From my experience applying to jobs recently, its Bowl Wins that are the main factor. From what I've seen, it's better to have a L5 win with no CC, than a CC with a L5 loss.

The winner of Texas/Bama will be the #1 candidate, after that if Nortonis wins his L5 bowl he'll be the clear #2 candidate. If Bama/Blitz/Freeman all win their games, I would expect the clear edge will go to Bama with 4 straight CC + L5 wins. I then expect it would go Freeman then Blitz in a tight race, because Freeman has the CC + L5 win, outweighing the NC Blitz won 3 seasons ago.

I would also have EZ behind Rutgers if they win their L5 bowl.

This is why it is a fun topic for me - so many great coaches there doesn't appear to be a stand-alone favorite.

I thought about awags if he won the NC - but that would be 1 NC 1 CC and 1 Level 5 bowl in the past five seasons as he has been building Alabama.

bama2448 has owned the ACC but hasn't made it to the NC game. I was trying to guesstimate the weight of making it to the NC game in the past five seasons. Is it better to lose the NC game or win a Level 5. I'm leaning towards losing a NC game is better. nortonis has been to 2 NCs and won 2. I've been to 2 and won 1. Jason has been to 2 and lost both - although he won the NC six seasons ago and went to another NC game 7 seasons ago. Jason and bama2448 could both be easily ahead of me for the Penn State job (we will find out soon).

I looked at allen129's resume and I am rooting big time for him to get an elite. With back to back Level 5 appearances he is up and coming but I thought the coaches I listed have advantages with more Level 5 appearances and NC game appearances in the past five seasons.

I'm pretty confident that L5 win > NC loss. I say that because in Hayes I thought my resume was good because I had a CC + NC Loss as my final season at LSU. I applied for elite jobs 5-7 times over the past 40 seasons and always lost to resumes I viewed as inferior (like L5 bowl wins and no CC as the most recent season). I finally got Alabama because 3 elites opened at the same time, but overall it was eye opening.

I have always assumed that the reigning NC (or someone who won the NC in their last season), has the #1 resume out of all applicants regardless of years prior (assuming they weren't horrible before). If awags wins the NC I would bet heavily that he would beat all applicants, including nortonis even if he wins his L5 bowl.

I guess it's all anecdotal, but in all worlds I've been trying to get the best resume I can so I can get OSU when it opens, usually that involved quitting fresh off a CC, regardless of whether I won the bowl game. Since then I"ve found out my CC with L5 bowl loss resumes aren't that great, which is why I think Bama2448's resume would do very very well.

Posted by awags on 7/15/2017 9:06:00 PM (view original):
This is a fun subject. I agree with ebel that the hiring process is only really looking at most recent success. I agree with z32 that a bowl win is crucial. I would also like to add that I believe conference titles are very important also. That being said I believe that nortonis is the resume to beat unless bkdries wins the title. I'm not even sure that is enough if nortonis wins his bowl too.

I would also like to add that the PSU job in Wilk is probably not as good a job when a full Big East is pulling down $80k+ in bowl money.

awags what is your current Top 3 elite job rankings in Wilkinson?

I keep trying to complete a Top 3 list but I talk myself out of Penn State and Texas currently - but it isn't like there are some others that are obvious choices above them.......... I know Florida State and Nebraska would be the least desirable elite jobs to me.

I ask myself would I trade Oklahoma for _________:
Oklahoma for Miami or Florida State - No
Oklahoma for any SEC elite: LSU, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee - No
Ok for USC - No
Ok for Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State - No (I used to think differently)
Ok for Nebraska - No
Ok for Penn State or Texas---- this used to be "absolutely" but rosters of the three programs have been very comparable the last several seasons. I think I would have a lot more blue chip recruits in my backyard if I coached at Penn St or Texas.

Using this "would I trade Oklahoma for ______" approach I could talk myself into ranking Oklahoma in the top 3, but the recruiting in Oklahoma is very challenging. It costs a lot of money for me to recruit in Texas now. There aren't many great recruits local in Oklahoma. I constantly have to battle LSU and Nebraska for recruits in Arkansas. Recruits in Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri have become expensive with coaches in those states and that being Nebraska's primary recruiting area. Colorado is off limits now with Colorado State's bowl money and a great coach at Colorado. That hardly sounds like a Top 3 program currently.

I think the "Big 3" are always PSU, Texas and USC regardless of what world you are in. However in Wilkinson I think LSU and Miami have the benefit of a little isolation which is very important in an increasingly crowded world. For me Michigan and FSU would be the least desirable jobs but nortonis absolutely make it work at U of M.

Take our name out of any job consideration. We are staying at USC, as we have been promised a royalty from
BIG BALLER BRAND" shoes. Also, LaVar has sent us autographed canisters of all of his sons' game tapes, which as near as we can tell, started during conception. The ball handling was somewhat murky, but evidently the shooting percentage came around.

Please keep this info within our Wilkinson community, because we all know how LaVar wishes to fly under the radar, and maintain his humble dignity.

Thank you for understanding the situation.

Posted by ez37 on 7/16/2017 1:12:00 AM (view original):
Take our name out of any job consideration. We are staying at USC, as we have been promised a royalty from
BIG BALLER BRAND" shoes. Also, LaVar has sent us autographed canisters of all of his sons' game tapes, which as near as we can tell, started during conception. The ball handling was somewhat murky, but evidently the shooting percentage came around.

Please keep this info within our Wilkinson community, because we all know how LaVar wishes to fly under the radar, and maintain his humble dignity.

Thank you for understanding the situation.

Mum's the word...