Posted by mullycj on 7/27/2017 12:15:00 PM (view original):
It doesn't make any sense and its not consistent.

The lower your total number the larger the chance of a variance you didn't intend for. But what do I know....

Mully, I'm not being argumentitive but could you expand for my good. Do you mean that because I'm using less exact numbers that I can't fine tune yet.

Posted by thewizard17 on 7/27/2017 7:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 7/27/2017 7:24:00 PM (view original):
Not so.

1-1-2-2-3, 2-2-4-4-6, 3-3-6-6-9, 4-4-8-8-12 ... 8-8-16-16-24 ... 10-10-20-20-30 ... are all the same. All that matters are the ratios. Larger or smaller doesn't matter, just the ratios.

Even though distro means number of touches, not shots, let's just say for arguments sake the distro is equivalent to the number of shots.

In the last above example (10-10-20-20-30) I may want the 3rd player listed to take 1.5 shots more than players 1+2. But obviously I can't use 1.5, so I would need a higher number.

Another reason to use a number of closer to 100 is if I have 1 or 2 players foul out, that can really throw things out whack with my distro.

Wiz is exactly correct.

Remember spud never won a post season game so set your expectations low.
my actual formula takes into account playing time and who is in the floor at the same time (in theory) to get the distribution I want. By the end of the season my average distribution should match actual shots taken %s.

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/27/2017 9:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 7/27/2017 12:15:00 PM (view original):
It doesn't make any sense and its not consistent.

The lower your total number the larger the chance of a variance you didn't intend for. But what do I know....

Mully, I'm not being argumentitive but could you expand for my good. Do you mean that because I'm using less exact numbers that I can't fine tune yet.

Yes
and as wiz said if you have foul trouble or funky sub patterns your actual distribution will get farked up

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/27/2017 7:52:00 PM (view original):
Possible retraction: I use 100 as does wiz(apparently). But I would think 4-2-1-1-0 would work the same. Maybe not.

Exactly the same, you are right.

Posted by mullycj on 7/27/2017 9:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/27/2017 9:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 7/27/2017 12:15:00 PM (view original):
It doesn't make any sense and its not consistent.

The lower your total number the larger the chance of a variance you didn't intend for. But what do I know....

Mully, I'm not being argumentitive but could you expand for my good. Do you mean that because I'm using less exact numbers that I can't fine tune yet.

Yes
and as wiz said if you have foul trouble or funky sub patterns your actual distribution will get farked up

Minutes will get "farked up," who is on the floor will change, but the ratios do not change.

4-4-8-8-16, for example, will always be just a multiple (four x) of 1-1-2-2-4. Math is math, people.

Maybe some people are confused by only listing the distribution for the five starters.

4-4-8-8-16-4-4-4-4-4-4-4 for example will always be nothing more than a multiple (4 x) of 1-1-2-2-4-1-1-1-1-1-1-1, as will 5-5-10-10-20-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 ...
or 3-3-6-6-12-3-3-3-3-3-3-3. All of them are the same ratios and will work the same.

Posted by l80r20 on 7/27/2017 10:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 7/27/2017 9:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 7/27/2017 9:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 7/27/2017 12:15:00 PM (view original):
It doesn't make any sense and its not consistent.

The lower your total number the larger the chance of a variance you didn't intend for. But what do I know....

Mully, I'm not being argumentitive but could you expand for my good. Do you mean that because I'm using less exact numbers that I can't fine tune yet.

Yes
and as wiz said if you have foul trouble or funky sub patterns your actual distribution will get farked up

Minutes will get "farked up," who is on the floor will change, but the ratios do not change.

4-4-8-8-16, for example, will always be just a multiple (four x) of 1-1-2-2-4. Math is math, people.

LMAO!

Posted by l80r20 on 7/27/2017 11:03:00 PM (view original):
Maybe some people are confused by only listing the distribution for the five starters.

4-4-8-8-16-4-4-4-4-4-4-4 for example will always be nothing more than a multiple (4 x) of 1-1-2-2-4-1-1-1-1-1-1-1, as will 5-5-10-10-20-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 ...
or 3-3-6-6-12-3-3-3-3-3-3-3. All of them are the same ratios and will work the same.

We aren't arguing that.
If someone is consistently using 40-30-20-10 for a distribution, then you are right, it doesn't matter.

The top coaches typically don't do that. They manage distribution on a more granular level.

ie

David Ellerman	Sr.	SG	22
James Bryson	So.	SG	0
Glenn Stevenson	So.	SG	17
Nelson Garner	Fr.	SG	12
Philip Timmons	Fr.	SG	0
Michael Zader	Fr.	SG	3
Rafael Martinez	Jr.	PF	18
Jefferey Baden	So.	PF	7
Jason Dall	Fr.	PF	6
Donald Sweeten	So.	C	15
Robert Kovach	Fr.	PG	0
John Mitchel	Fr.	SF	0
			100

Deciding that one guy should be an 18 instead of a 17 or a 15, feels a little too granular to me.

How do you make those decisions at that fine a level?

"We aren't arguing that."

Thank you.

He was never arguing that your math was wrong. He was stating why bother calculating when you can set it to 100 distro and have the percentages you want without calculating anything.

When you are at 100 already it is a nuisance to have to lower some guys when you want to emphasize someone else. If you use 50 plus or minus, that is never a problem.

Maybe I missed something but distro is just a part of the "who shoots" decision. I think of distro like a baseline which can be modified by other factors such as:

defense
defensive settings
double teams
defenders covering the man

Posted by tecwrg on 7/27/2017 11:40:00 PM (view original):
Deciding that one guy should be an 18 instead of a 17 or a 15, feels a little too granular to me.

How do you make those decisions at that fine a level?

In that case I would want the 18 player getting a few more touches/shots than the 17 player. To me it's all about ranking my shooters 1-12 (or whatever) and setting the distro accordingly.

But again, the numbers above are my raw numbers and don't have the playing time/sub calc factored in. I left that column out.

Posted by poncho0091 on 7/28/2017 12:34:00 AM (view original):
He was never arguing that your math was wrong. He was stating why bother calculating when you can set it to 100 distro and have the percentages you want without calculating anything.

But that's not how it's going to play out.

If you have two guys set at 20, but one guy is getting 28 minutes of playing time a game while the other is only playing 18, they are not going to be getting the same number of touches or shots per game.

The bottom line: there is no "right" way to set up distribution. There are way too many factors that are going to impact it who is getting the looks and taking the shots, including depth chart rotations, substitution settings, player stamina, game tempo, defensive double teams, etc.

The best you can do is try to set up something that gives a general sense of "I want this guy to get the most, that guy to get the least, etc." and hope it plays out the way you want. Whether you do that on a team-wide scale of 100, or an individual scale of 1-5 (which is what I prefer), it doesn't really matter, as long as you monitor and adjust accordingly as the season progresses.