I am starting to think that EES are working like prestige.

My PG changed from On the Fence to likely going, could he be a low likely going since he just turned likely going? Is it possible that the % he leaves at likely going varies, like On the Fence is not 50%-50% but maybe more like 40% to 60%...

What do you guys think?

I've always assumed it works that way. What's the alternative? That everyone listed is either 1% (staying) 25% (likely staying) 50% (on the fence) or 75% (likely going)? That's far too simplistic, IMO. I'd be shocked if there is not a range within each level.

I look at it this way, and of course I have no knowledge it works this way, just my assumption. The player's attributes/IQ and your teams performance determine the real odds of leaving. Those real odds are translated into broad levels, what you see under outlook. The outlook doesn't determine the odds, it's the other way around.

I would bet a lot of money it is close to:
1%
2-25%
26-74%
75-100%

Likely closer to <10%, 11-30%, 31-59, 60-80%, judging by the typical makeup of the big board, and who ends up leaving early. Since only around 40% of the big board EE candidates end up leaving early (it varies some by year, and obviously depends on the makeup of the classes), the median should be around 40%, imo.

Posted by pkoopman on 8/4/2017 11:43:00 AM (view original):
Likely closer to <10%, 11-30%, 31-59, 60-80%, judging by the typical makeup of the big board, and who ends up leaving early. Since only around 40% of the big board EE candidates end up leaving early (it varies some by year, and obviously depends on the makeup of the classes), the median should be around 40%, imo.

Good observation. I'd be encline to think it's that way. But you only have three categories.

Likely Staying
On the Fence
Likely going
Graduating is 100%

Shoe, the list of EE guys in Wooden has 16 likely going, 22 likely staying, 5 Staying, and 30 otf.

If your factors were true, only 33% of EEs would go in Wooden.

If my guesses were true, 43% of EEs would go in Wooden.

The reason that 40% of EEs go is NOT that the categories are slanted but instead that more players are listed likely staying and staying that likely going.

I still would bet a lot of money it is close to:

1% Staying
2-25% Likely Staying
26-74% OTF
75-100% Likely Going

My extra 3 percent could just be Wooden but looking at Iba, I seem to be high again (only 2% this time). Shoe is 10% below. I would guess my 2% is either because shoe is rounding his 40% number down or inside these categories, players are slightly more often on the lower end.

I have no idea what kind of maths you're using, cub. My assumptions are based on the premise that each player's likelihood of leaving early is independent. There is no slotted number in each outlook category, they change every year.

I dont know the exact ranges, but I am confident that you are wrong on two of your estimations; first, that players listed as "staying" have a standard 1% chance of leaving early. If there are about 5 players listed as "staying" each year, and each of them only has a 1% chance of leaving, we would only expect to see one of those types of players leave early in a world once every 20 seasons. Basically, it would be the same as getting 5 chances to get one specific number from 0-99. I don't follow it that closely, but anecdotally from what I've heard on forums and conference chats, players listed as "staying" leave more often than once every 20 seasons.

For similar reasons, am quite sure that the "likely going" category does not go all the way up to 100%. I suspect it tops out at about 80%, max. Might be lower. One could do a study to see how many of each category - as listed before the end of the season - end up going, and I've never done that. But nothing has led me to believe that any given player is a "sure thing" to leave early.

Thanks shoe, that's why I keep getting 42 or 43 percent while only 40% of underclassmen go pro. Probably doesn't go to 100. Only 90 or 80.

I don't care whether staying is 1% or 3%; it's a much smaller different than if you say OTF is 30%

when they launched the big board they said that odds of going for any individual would ALSO be affected by how deep the team went in postseason and by All American honors. Those are not reflected in the categories - they come at the end and we dont see those change.

Has anyone had an "on the fence" stay?

I think this is one of those things that is really easy to find out but everyone is just too lazy to do the study.

Posted by texrangers18 on 8/6/2017 9:42:00 AM (view original):
Has anyone had an "on the fence" stay?

Yeah. Roughly half the time

I have seen both on the fence and likely going not go - but have not gathered data.

My Likely going : lost them all, lost one likely staying, on the fence, pretty much 50-50