I'd like to see a system where you can use recruiting points to effect it... Like actual NCAA games when they used to make them. You could use your recruiting budget to effect Pro ready players.

Posted by texrangers18 on 8/6/2017 9:42:00 AM (view original):
Has anyone had an "on the fence" stay?

If I make a deep run, they usually go... If I don't they usually stay.
This is part of the equation as well.

I've probably had 3-5 Likely going's stay. (out of probably 70-ish). Included was the #2 guy and a couple top 5's. Weird.
I've rarely had anyone "not likely" leave. Probably the inverse number. Also probably because I lost the max many times and these guys didn't have a choice.
I averaged 4 to the NBA in 2.0 for around 30 seasons and very few of those made it to their senior year.

Like everything on here, there are certainly numbers behind the words. That's how this game works.
And like everything, certain things affect the "normal" numbers. What I mean is just like Athleticism makes every other number better.... your tourney run (or lack thereof) is a multiplier to the aforementioned numbers, thus they will vary from the baseline.

It isn't enough of a sample, but here are the stats for Smith this year in terms of who declared and who didn't based on the final Big Board status:
Likely Going: 16/20 = 80%
On the Fence: 10/24= 42%
Likely Staying: 2/21 = 10%
Staying: 0/5 = 0%

In addition to the above, there were 30 players listed as graduating on the Big Board. 1 player who was not on the big board (but who played for the national champion) declared, as well.

Posted by zorzii on 8/4/2017 11:50:00 AM (view original):

Posted by pkoopman on 8/4/2017 11:43:00 AM (view original):
Likely closer to <10%, 11-30%, 31-59, 60-80%, judging by the typical makeup of the big board, and who ends up leaving early. Since only around 40% of the big board EE candidates end up leaving early (it varies some by year, and obviously depends on the makeup of the classes), the median should be around 40%, imo.

Good observation. I'd be encline to think it's that way. But you only have three categories.

Likely Staying
On the Fence
Likely going
Graduating is 100%

He only has three categories because if you're graduating you can't be an EE.

Well, I got a likely going to stay, he was the second to last likely going on the board but luck did not work on my on the fence, he is gone. I had replaced the guard but came up empty when it came to getting a SF.

Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

I realize it is only one season of one world, but that looks pretty reasonable.

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

I realize it is only one season of one world, but that looks pretty reasonable.

Agreed, except I would get rid of players going and not even on the big board.

Posted by zorzii on 8/10/2017 11:02:00 AM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

I realize it is only one season of one world, but that looks pretty reasonable.

Agreed, except I would get rid of players going and not even on the big board.

Why? Because they don't count? Because they'll actually be back next season? Because they don't fit with whatever your latest crusade is?

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 11:14:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 8/10/2017 11:02:00 AM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

I realize it is only one season of one world, but that looks pretty reasonable.

Agreed, except I would get rid of players going and not even on the big board.

Why? Because they don't count? Because they'll actually be back next season? Because they don't fit with whatever your latest crusade is?

No. The player not on the big board is not expected to leave early, therefore when you recruit, you have no way of preparing for it.

Posted by zorzii on 8/10/2017 2:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 11:14:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 8/10/2017 11:02:00 AM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

I realize it is only one season of one world, but that looks pretty reasonable.

Agreed, except I would get rid of players going and not even on the big board.

Why? Because they don't count? Because they'll actually be back next season? Because they don't fit with whatever your latest crusade is?

No. The player not on the big board is not expected to leave early, therefore when you recruit, you have no way of preparing for it.

Even more reason to collect data on how often it happens.

Posted by zorzii on 8/10/2017 2:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 11:14:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 8/10/2017 11:02:00 AM (view original):

Posted by l80r20 on 8/10/2017 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

I realize it is only one season of one world, but that looks pretty reasonable.

Agreed, except I would get rid of players going and not even on the big board.

Why? Because they don't count? Because they'll actually be back next season? Because they don't fit with whatever your latest crusade is?

No. The player not on the big board is not expected to leave early, therefore when you recruit, you have no way of preparing for it.

If your player was a top 20 by position recruit, and he looks reasonably close, in overall and cores, to other guys who are on the big board by the time postseason starts, you should prepare for the possibility. The premise here is that a great postseason run can increase his stock. The board doesn't get updated during the postseason; if it did, that surprise player would be on it.

Again, the big board doesn't determine his odds, it gives you a vague snapshot of them.

The problem would be if you had 3 players who all had different roles (ex. PG, SF, C) and any of the 3 could be candidates, how could you possibly identify what possible replacement options to target (and if you had 1 or even no openings, you would have very little AP to target Late signees). You would also have to identify them early in the season as RS1 is where you would likely have to accrue your AP.

[Edit] Better would be if WIS made the Big Board the Top 200 and had the restriction that nobody not on that board would go EE, at least I would be able to identify which of the 3 would *likely* be needed to be replaced and plan accordingly (assuming at least 1 of the 3 appeared on the list between 101 and 200).

Vague?