Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 5:06:00 PM (view original):
Vague?

Yes. Uncertain, indefinite, imprecise. Or, as noted by the previous discussion on this thread, a general range of probabilities, like <10%, 11-30%, 31-59, 60-80%; or <10%, 10-33%, 33-66%, and 67-90%. Take your pick.

Thats what vague means.

Those probabilities aren't that vague. Seems like they have set limits to me.

Theyre not indefinite if they have those defined limits that are known.

Posted by buddhagamer on 8/10/2017 5:07:00 PM (view original):
The problem would be if you had 3 players who all had different roles (ex. PG, SF, C) and any of the 3 could be candidates, how could you possibly identify what possible replacement options to target (and if you had 1 or even no openings, you would have very little AP to target Late signees). You would also have to identify them early in the season as RS1 is where you would likely have to accrue your AP.

[Edit] Better would be if WIS made the Big Board the Top 200 and had the restriction that nobody not on that board would go EE, at least I would be able to identify which of the 3 would *likely* be needed to be replaced and plan accordingly (assuming at least 1 of the 3 appeared on the list between 101 and 200).

We've had this discussion before, and since then you've won 3 D1 championships in a row in a very competitive world. I know you know the difference between a recruit who could possibly leave early, and one who could not. You project out the ratings of where a guy might be in a given year, like everybody else at that level. No one knows exactly who will go, but you know who could go, you don't need the big board to tell you. Dealing with the headache of early entries is the natural consequence of who you recruit. It doesn't need to be easier for you, if anything it should probably be a little tougher. :)

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 6:15:00 PM (view original):
Those probabilities aren't that vague. Seems like they have set limits to me.

Theyre not indefinite if they have those defined limits that are known.

If the big board explicitly gave you the odds of each guy, then it would be precise. It doesn't do that. It names a category, under which exists a range of probabilities, making the odds for a given recruit imprecise. Or vague.

That's the whole point of the thread, zorzii coming to the realization that on the fence does not mean 50%, it means some range around 50%, like 30-59, or 34-66, etc.

The big board is meant to give you a decent idea on probability that a player leaves. Otherwise why even have it.

Posted by pkoopman on 8/10/2017 6:19:00 PM (view original):
That's the whole point of the thread, zorzii coming to the realization that on the fence does not mean 50%, it means some range around 50%, like 30-59, or 34-66, etc.

Okay... I forgot this was a thread arguing with zorzii...

yeah we are on the same page.

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 6:20:00 PM (view original):
The big board is meant to give you a decent idea on probability that a player leaves. Otherwise why even have it.

It does.

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 6:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pkoopman on 8/10/2017 6:19:00 PM (view original):
That's the whole point of the thread, zorzii coming to the realization that on the fence does not mean 50%, it means some range around 50%, like 30-59, or 34-66, etc.

Okay... I forgot this was a thread arguing with zorzii...

yeah we are on the same page.

It's not arguing, I like what PK does, he crushes the numbers

Posted by pkoopman on 8/10/2017 6:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 6:20:00 PM (view original):
The big board is meant to give you a decent idea on probability that a player leaves. Otherwise why even have it.

It does.

Except it won't tell us those that might leave outside the top 100 (i.e. why stop at top 100 which is no different than why only list 10 considering schools). Both should list every one (or maybe list on your own roster how each of your players rank on the big board).

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

Was the 1 not on the big board from a team that went far in the tournament?

Posted by gdog13cavs on 8/10/2017 8:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

Was the 1 not on the big board from a team that went far in the tournament?

E8

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 8:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gdog13cavs on 8/10/2017 8:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/10/2017 7:01:00 AM (view original):
Here is Allen

Likely going - 14/16
Likely staying - 3/27
On the fence- 12/25
Staying- 1/5
Not on big board - 1
Graduating - 27

Was the 1 not on the big board from a team that went far in the tournament?

E8

From this admittedly very limited sample size, I would think you only really have a risk of losing an EE if they aren't on the big board if you make a deep run in the tourney. How deep likely impacts the likelihood, and how close the player was to being on the board, would, too. It's a very small overall risk, and appears as if the risk of having more than 1 on a team to prepare for would be exceedingly small.

Well in Phelan, #100 on the big board went EE and Alabama lost in the 2nd round of the NT. I don't know if he was falling during the season or if he rose to that position during end of the season.

from what i've seen post season success seems to be the most overrated factor with EEs. I've had a bunch of likely staying guys go after getting bumped in round 1, and I've had likely going and on the fence stay unexpectedly after deep runs. I've also seen teams in the title game lose no EEs when they had multiple on the big board. i just don't think it's much of a factor, much less so than random chance/luck.

personally I think no one should go EE off the board. it's the most minimal of hat tips towards teams trying to plan for potential EEs.