A couple more data points to examine for this seasons run to a title. While coaching can make the difference between two teams the talent on the field is usually the #1 predictor of the winner. With that in mind here are two charts.

#1-Top 25 players by position by team (cut off was at least 4 players)


#2 Top 100 players overall (cut off was at least 2)

Yale, Dayton, Texas Southern, and Texas State stand out from the field. The offensive and defensive outputs from yesterdays posts are again supported by the talent levels of these 4 teams.

Now, lets talk coaching to see if any of these 4 has an advantage in that area....

Yale

Dayton

Texas Southern

Texas State

I love that you're slicing up this data and taking a deep dive into it. Great work!

I've coached in D1AA Wilkinson since season 131 and Texas Southern has won the title every one of those seasons. They seem like the safest bet.

It'll be interesting where these teams will be placed in the playoffs and how high Yale can climb up the rankings if they finish the regular season undefeated.

Thanks for doing the analysis.

Thanks gt...nothing too fancy coming out of this brain. My analysis skills don't get much past 2+2 and having a large # of the best players = winning.

Posted by dukelegend on 8/10/2017 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Thanks gt...nothing too fancy coming out of this brain. My analysis skills don't get much past 2+2 and having a large # of the best players = winning.

All contributions welcome, in my view!

It's fun to carve up data sets and offer different angles or insights. In this case, it's interesting to put data to the intuitive sense I think most experienced GD coaches already possess [of talent's importance]. I've already proven - to myself, at least - that talent is the strongest predictor of success. It's incredibly well-correlated to success across a great many seasons. This is particularly true if you take out Sim-vs-Sim games, which are a bizarre, randomish constellation of outcomes that are only loosely correlated to ratings.

Posted by paulsuberlak on 8/10/2017 3:11:00 PM (view original):
I've coached in D1AA Wilkinson since season 131 and Texas Southern has won the title every one of those seasons. They seem like the safest bet.

It'll be interesting where these teams will be placed in the playoffs and how high Yale can climb up the rankings if they finish the regular season undefeated.

Thanks for doing the analysis.

I agree, TSU still has some dominant recruits brought in by nitros. vikesrule proved himself worthy of coaching them well enough last year that they are my favorite as well.

Yale is impressive but 1) Most of the elite talent is on defense 2)They run, run, and run some more and have a true FR QB. No offense intended for sjurat but he also has never taken a team to the title HOWEVER his wishbone all run approach has probably never had a better chance than it does with this team.

Texas State lost a game yesterday that they just should not have and makes me wonder about the game planning right now.

And your Dayton team is my dark horse simply because on this ID you show no NC. With that said your career winning % and skill at recruiting is obvious and again, talent wins games as gt points out above.

Other teams could most certainly creep into this i.e. Marist, St. Mary's, EKU, Northern Iowa, Maine, etc.

I wouldn't know what to do with real talent if I had a manual, lol. I prefer to mold my guys into the Black Bear system, lay low, and stay under the radar. But, rest assured, the ragamuffins from Maine will be more than ready come playoff time.

At this point, we're a 6 seed, but we'll be a handfull for any 2/3 seed we might face us in round one.

Posted by chetty1963 on 8/10/2017 11:03:00 PM (view original):
I wouldn't know what to do with real talent if I had a manual, lol. I prefer to mold my guys into the Black Bear system, lay low, and stay under the radar. But, rest assured, the ragamuffins from Maine will be more than ready come playoff time.

At this point, we're a 6 seed, but we'll be a handfull for any 2/3 seed we might face us in round one.

Mr. 7 top 25 by position and 3 players in the top 100...you won't be a 6 seed come playoff time.

I never did get to a chance to breakdown the above...Dayton would be the only surprise for me based upon what my predictions would have been.

7 of the 8 remaining teams are on the above list of top 100 players, Jacksonville State is the only one remaining who does not make the list.