Posted by Jtpsops on 9/15/2017 2:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by cubbies84 on 9/15/2017 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Definitely want to be reading that stuff as all my teams collectively tank at once...oh Mariano Rivera loses 5 games in 7 appearances., neat, Andrew miller allows a 800ft walk off to a 1 homer dead ball hitter, Jake arrietta forgettaboutit! Oh but my Ruth, Greenberg, shoeless joe lineup goes 1,2,3 against a 65% Derek Lowe, got it.....the "realism" gets a little too real sometimes...
Pretty much. I get there's always a chance of certain things happening, but some things seem to happen far too much in WIS, based on a player's actual stats. One thing that annoys the hell out of me is the frequency with which a solid closer will have two outs and a lead in the ninth with the bases empty, and then the other team scores multiple runs. It seems the majority of my blown saves happen this way.
My personal favourite though was Andrew Miller giving up a two-out, two-run walkoff homer to a lefty with a #1HR/100AB, in -3/-3 Petco.
One of the problems with this is that WIS' normalization doesn't take into account the leverage situation that most elite modern closers faced.
The normalization applied is for all pitchers over the course of an entire season. A starting pitcher who maybe had 10 starts of 6 IP would not face the same quality of batters as say Andrew Miller did (typically if the 7/8/9 hitters are up versus a modern RP, they'll get PH for).
Likewise, the low PA batters coming off the bench are usually NOT true pinch hitters but just players who accumulated their stats usually against a variety of starters so again they'll normalize better than what the closers are getting.
At least that is my theory on the matter.