Round 1 - Sound off Topic

I used to use $200K pitchers a lot more often in this tournament. I would do the same thing calhoop is doing. Start them once in a blue moon. I was always amazed at how well they pitched with a month of rest. I always wondered if their performance got better the longer they rested. So although they are listed at 100%, they are really at 150% or better and therefor overachieve. Some day, I will try running a theme to test this theory.
9/15/2017 2:27 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 9/15/2017 2:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by cubbies84 on 9/15/2017 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Definitely want to be reading that stuff as all my teams collectively tank at once...oh Mariano Rivera loses 5 games in 7 appearances., neat, Andrew miller allows a 800ft walk off to a 1 homer dead ball hitter, Jake arrietta forgettaboutit! Oh but my Ruth, Greenberg, shoeless joe lineup goes 1,2,3 against a 65% Derek Lowe, got it.....the "realism" gets a little too real sometimes...
Pretty much. I get there's always a chance of certain things happening, but some things seem to happen far too much in WIS, based on a player's actual stats. One thing that annoys the hell out of me is the frequency with which a solid closer will have two outs and a lead in the ninth with the bases empty, and then the other team scores multiple runs. It seems the majority of my blown saves happen this way.

My personal favourite though was Andrew Miller giving up a two-out, two-run walkoff homer to a lefty with a #1HR/100AB, in -3/-3 Petco.
One of the problems with this is that WIS' normalization doesn't take into account the leverage situation that most elite modern closers faced.

The normalization applied is for all pitchers over the course of an entire season. A starting pitcher who maybe had 10 starts of 6 IP would not face the same quality of batters as say Andrew Miller did (typically if the 7/8/9 hitters are up versus a modern RP, they'll get PH for).

Likewise, the low PA batters coming off the bench are usually NOT true pinch hitters but just players who accumulated their stats usually against a variety of starters so again they'll normalize better than what the closers are getting.

At least that is my theory on the matter.
9/15/2017 2:28 PM
Thru the halfway point of the season, my 100M team was 45-36 (90-win pace) and my variable cap team was on a 96-win pace (48-33). Since then, those teams have gone 6-17 and 7-16, respectively and both are out of the playoffs. Things sure can change quickly.
9/15/2017 4:01 PM
Went 5-1 tonight and was cumulatively outscored by six runs, thanks to a 22-0 loss by my $70 mil team
9/15/2017 7:47 PM
Another L6...shocking. Finally get my variable cap team back to .500 and within striking distance of the WC, then boom, swept by two teams worse than me. The random prolonged streaks programmed into this game are beyond ridiculous.
9/15/2017 9:22 PM
Here's my "least likely to have actually occurred" game so far in this tournament. In the Soup League.

1933 Carl Hubbell (1 HR in 116 PA that year and 4 in his career) homered TWICE off 1905 Christy Mathewson (4 HR in 339 IP) in the same game. Both 3-run shots. Also singled in a run for a 7-RBI day.

I can only assume Chisock's team had some Apple watches in the dugout.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=29189356&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10
9/15/2017 10:43 PM
Posted by redcped on 9/15/2017 10:43:00 PM (view original):
Here's my "least likely to have actually occurred" game so far in this tournament. In the Soup League.

1933 Carl Hubbell (1 HR in 116 PA that year and 4 in his career) homered TWICE off 1905 Christy Mathewson (4 HR in 339 IP) in the same game. Both 3-run shots. Also singled in a run for a 7-RBI day.

I can only assume Chisock's team had some Apple watches in the dugout.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=29189356&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10
Wow.

I was trying to find the real life pitcher with fewest HR to have a multi homer game. I couldn't find anything close to 4. The lowest I got was 9, and that's Micah Owings who's a special case.

The weirdest thing I found was Tony Cloninger managed two multi homer games in one season, out of 11 HR in his career.

https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/july-3-1966-braves-pitcher-tony-cloninger-clouts-two-grand-slams
9/15/2017 10:57 PM
Here's a better list of pitchers with multi homer games. Mel Harder's 2HR day, out of 4 HR in a long career, is the closest to Hubbell in WIS. But I bet Harder didn't hit them off a Hall of Famer!

http://research.sabr.org/journals/pitchers-as-home-run-hitters
9/15/2017 11:01 PM
Posted by brianjw on 9/15/2017 11:01:00 PM (view original):
Here's a better list of pitchers with multi homer games. Mel Harder's 2HR day, out of 4 HR in a long career, is the closest to Hubbell in WIS. But I bet Harder didn't hit them off a Hall of Famer!

http://research.sabr.org/journals/pitchers-as-home-run-hitters
Dead ball HOFer, no less, like Matty
9/15/2017 11:46 PM
Posted by brianjw on 9/15/2017 11:01:00 PM (view original):
Here's a better list of pitchers with multi homer games. Mel Harder's 2HR day, out of 4 HR in a long career, is the closest to Hubbell in WIS. But I bet Harder didn't hit them off a Hall of Famer!

http://research.sabr.org/journals/pitchers-as-home-run-hitters
I might have to try to use Wes Ferrell sometime, just to see if he can do it.
9/15/2017 11:49 PM
To add to the strangeness of that Hubbell game, Mathewson has not allowed a HR since in 7 starts, nor had he allowed one in the six previous.

So, to sum up, the only player to homer off him in his past 14 starts is Hubbell.

It's also the only game in which he allowed more than 1 all season, and he's given up just 9 in all in 245 innings.
9/16/2017 2:03 PM
My triples team has 62 wins and is in third place. We just finished a 10-2 run and did not gain any ground in the division. We actually lost one game in the WC race. Painful.
9/16/2017 2:30 PM
Just noticed that 11 of 16 doubles teams in my XBH league are better on the road than at home, while 5 of 7 triples teams are better at home. Small sample, but it'd be interesting to know the results from every league. Perhaps an indication that triples were the better way to go, in terms of taking more advantage of the home ballpark choices.
9/18/2017 3:08 PM (edited)
As I was driving to work this morning it occurred to me that even if you don't like triples, the 200+ difference in innings requirements between Petco and League II probably made the triples team more logical.

NOW I think of this..........
9/19/2017 12:15 PM
From my post in the Roster Selection Strategies thread...

$140M - XBH Challenge with DH
Doubling Down

Ballpark - Polo Grounds V

No way was I going to try a home runs team - those teams will get killed in this theme. I originally had built a triples team but spent too much money on defense and pitching and didn't think the team would score enough runs, so at the last minute, I changed to a doubles team. This may be a mistake because the available ballparks for doubles teams don't really suppress offenses enough which will require more innings than a triples team. I'm not sure why I didn't simply change a few players on my triples team to upgrade the offense.
9/19/2017 12:20 PM
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Round 1 - Sound off Topic

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