7 new pitching articles by Bill James Topic

crazystengel
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Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Tough Luck Seasons

What W-L Record does the pitcher deserve?

Fortune and Fame

They Could Be Hall of Famers

Luck, and the Cy Young Award

Dave Stieb might want to print that last one out and frame it -- James says he was deserving of the American League Cy Young in '82, '83, '84, and maybe '85.
8/12/2017 5:07 AM (edited)
ArlenWilliam
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How hard does he throw? ;-`
8/12/2017 11:34 AM
crazystengel
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Hall of Famer
I noticed there was a discussion in the MLB forum here a while ago about Catfish Hunter and whether he deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. From the Fortune and Fame article above, James writes, "There are nine guys who, in my opinion, pretty clearly would not be in the Hall of Fame, had they been evaluated based on the won-lost records they deserved to have, rather than the Won-Lost records they wound up with." One of those is Catfish (DesW and DesL means deserved wins and losses):

Catfish Hunter

Year Wins Loss DesW DesL
1965-- 8 8 6 9
1966-- 9 11 8 12
1967-- 13 17 16 14
1968-- 13 13 12 15
1969-- 12 15 13 15
1970-- 18 14 14 16
1971-- 21 11 17 14
1972-- 21 7 21 13
1973-- 21 5 13 16
1974-- 25 12 23 13
1975-- 23 14 23 14
1976-- 17 15 17 17
1977-- 9 9 6 10
1978-- 12 6 7 7
1979-- 2 9 5 7
224 166 201 192

I adore Catfish Hunter, and it pains me greatly to put him on this list. I would leave him off the list, but other people do sabermetrics, too, and they would rat me out.

8/14/2017 3:52 AM (edited)
mensu1954
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Just my opinion...Catfish is deserving of the HOF.
8/14/2017 8:25 AM
crazystengel
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That's my feeling, too. I'm not sure even James is saying he thinks Catfish shouldn't be in the HOF; he only seems to be predicting that he wouldn't be if voters looked at his "deserved" W-L record instead of the actual one. The fact is, Catfish compiled the actual one, and he's in the HOF.

Still, the differences between the "deserved" and actual records are interesting, especially in 1973: a 21-5 record with an ERA+ of 107 is incredible.
8/14/2017 11:26 AM
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DoctorKz
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Sometimes good players end up on great teams. My 2 favorite NFL examples of those who deserved better are Jim Hart and Dan Fouts...their numbers compare quite well to Bradshaw. Terry had the good fortune of being on some great teams. BTW, both Hart and Fouts were coached by Don Coryell, who damned sure should be in Canton...most pro offenses are running systems engineered by Coryell and Sid Gillman. And they groomed just about every HOF coach that has been enshrined in the past quarter century.
8/14/2017 7:07 PM (edited)
DoctorKz
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Stieb was very good. I see him as close to Schilling. And durable. Blyleven had many good years. Great curveball, as good as Carlton's slider.
8/14/2017 7:25 PM
crazystengel
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Hall of Famer
Stieb's slider.
8/15/2017 2:17 AM
bagchucker
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i always like Gene Nelson's slider. show me one o those
8/15/2017 8:51 AM
Jtpsops
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Posted by d_rock97 on 8/14/2017 5:43:00 PM (view original):
Meh, Catfish is barely above league average in every stat but wins. Doesn't deserve the HoF to me. He just got lucky.

1. Cool nickname
2. Played for Yankees
3. Was eligible for the hall before all the great starters were

He just retired at the right time.
Yet most of his contemporaries and the media who covered him during his career considered him one of the best of his time. I'm willing to trust them over people looking back 40 years later and trying to assess his impact.
8/15/2017 10:11 AM
crazystengel
Posts: 11939 (1)
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Posted by bagchucker on 8/15/2017 8:51:00 AM (view original):
i always like Gene Nelson's slider. show me one o those
Gene Nelson Tribute
8/15/2017 3:55 PM
crazystengel
Posts: 11939 (1)
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Two more in this series from Bill James:

Lady Luck and the 20-Game Winner

Cleanup
8/15/2017 4:34 PM
Bootone
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Hall of Famer
Posted by Jtpsops on 8/15/2017 10:11:00 AM (view original):
Posted by d_rock97 on 8/14/2017 5:43:00 PM (view original):
Meh, Catfish is barely above league average in every stat but wins. Doesn't deserve the HoF to me. He just got lucky.

1. Cool nickname
2. Played for Yankees
3. Was eligible for the hall before all the great starters were

He just retired at the right time.
Yet most of his contemporaries and the media who covered him during his career considered him one of the best of his time. I'm willing to trust them over people looking back 40 years later and trying to assess his impact.
Well said!
8/15/2017 4:36 PM
redcped
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"I have observed this before using different methods, but from 1969 to 1971, Jenkins, Seaver and Carlton each won one Cy Young Award and each deserved one—but none of them won the Award that they deserved. Seaver deserved it in ’71, won it in ’69; Gibson deserved it in ’69, won it in ’70; Jenkins deserved it in ’70, won it in ’71. Perhaps we can get them to work out a trade."

I love Bill James
8/16/2017 12:52 AM
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