Posted by Jtpsops on 9/26/2017 3:05:00 PM (view original):
I find it amazing that barracuda has 4 periods over 90 and still has a spread of 24. Definitely overcame that slow start.

Thanks. I was really, really frustrated around the time of that first update. I understand the concept of small sample sizes, but hearkening back to my probability/stat central limit theorem days I start to get nervous around the 30 game mark.

Using the standings at game 135 (i.e.,, the 5/6 point of the season), I've calculated some division strength metrics. Basically, for each owner, I calculated the number of wins for the first, second, third and fourth place teams in that owner's division. Now, it's obvious that a really highly ranked owner will probably show up with a very high "1st place" wins ranking, and vice versa for the lowest ranked owners. What's more interesting is the 2nd and 3rd place tables. If you have a really good record but got stuck with a really strong team in your division, you could still make the playoffs as a wildcard. But if you are in divisions with two really strong teams, then you are screwed. Anyway, the rankings are in the tables below.

This table represents the average winning% of first place teams across all six divisions for each owner. In other words, dougpalm's six division leaders has an average winning% of .631.
.

Owner	1st
-------------------------	-----------
dougpalm	0.631
ballantine	0.623
bigmc	0.614
rbow923	0.611
Lazerhawks	0.610
mildnhazy	0.607
doctorcc	0.606
jmissirlis	0.604
ozomatli	0.600
glowguy	0.600
happyhours	0.599
trd3	0.599
jfranco77	0.599
toddcommish	0.598
Humdogs	0.596
brianjw	0.596
barracuda3	0.596
nordawg	0.596
fooolishfool	0.595
schwarze	0.595
redwingscup	0.595
daddyzander	0.594
batandball	0.590
d_rock97	0.588
mick33	0.588
dodgebob	0.588
gigrant	0.588
cstrohmier	0.586
sford	0.586
markeking	0.586
sohio4ever	0.586
paulives	0.585
darthmetool	0.584
jjgreen14	0.583
zlionsfan	0.583
discodemo	0.581
mllama54	0.581
beauchamp	0.581
XJchessman	0.580
justinlee_24	0.580
rmdriskill	0.580
rufus4ever	0.580
Fusion27s	0.579
rickysdad44	0.579
npg32433	0.578
thejuice6	0.578
jbohrman	0.577
moose821	0.577
NebHusker	0.577
jetscanes	0.577
brucel	0.575
thebubbaq	0.574
knieman	0.574
BullMoose	0.574
bighooze	0.574
redcped	0.573
pedrocerrano	0.573
thehuseman	0.573
Jtpsops	0.572
hersheybear	0.572
hacker7	0.572
scottharra	0.570
kyleb63	0.569
buddhagamer	0.569
cubbies84	0.569
KOTH	0.569
dlchow	0.569
spoonfed	0.569
Relkcirts	0.568
crystalao	0.568
midknight	0.568
mpitt76	0.567
magicdreamer	0.567
wink0094	0.567
charliembg	0.565
Chisock	0.565
firesalt	0.565
DarthDurron	0.565
newarkwilder	0.565
bardin	0.564
Jdh34	0.564
tridentric	0.564
hurst47	0.563
DoctorKz	0.560
calhoop	0.560
fatboydad54	0.560
spikeboots	0.559
slightner	0.559
tigerrott	0.556
sjh0825	0.554
frank_drebin	0.554
ejstockman	0.551
ledfoot	0.549
garmansouth	0.546
greenies	0.542
brickster44	0.542

Second Place Teams
.

Owner	2nd
-------------------------	-----------
rbow923	0.564
barracuda3	0.559
bigmc	0.557
dougpalm	0.553
batandball	0.552
jbohrman	0.552
justinlee_24	0.552
buddhagamer	0.547
nordawg	0.547
redwingscup	0.547
doctorcc	0.546
mildnhazy	0.544
Humdogs	0.543
discodemo	0.543
jmissirlis	0.541
Lazerhawks	0.541
jetscanes	0.537
sford	0.536
DoctorKz	0.536
toddcommish	0.535
fooolishfool	0.533
brucel	0.533
schwarze	0.533
Fusion27s	0.533
mick33	0.532
magicdreamer	0.532
kyleb63	0.531
fatboydad54	0.531
sohio4ever	0.531
KOTH	0.531
mllama54	0.530
bardin	0.530
Jtpsops	0.530
Jdh34	0.530
crystalao	0.530
charliembg	0.530
tigerrott	0.530
glowguy	0.530
XJchessman	0.528
jjgreen14	0.528
ballantine	0.528
calhoop	0.528
pedrocerrano	0.528
thebubbaq	0.528
ozomatli	0.528
hersheybear	0.528
markeking	0.527
jfranco77	0.527
Relkcirts	0.526
Chisock	0.526
mpitt76	0.526
midknight	0.526
sjh0825	0.525
moose821	0.523
bighooze	0.523
d_rock97	0.522
BullMoose	0.522
cstrohmier	0.521
brianjw	0.521
daddyzander	0.521
darthmetool	0.521
wink0094	0.521
tridentric	0.521
redcped	0.520
knieman	0.520
firesalt	0.520
zlionsfan	0.519
rmdriskill	0.519
npg32433	0.517
newarkwilder	0.516
DarthDurron	0.515
spoonfed	0.515
happyhours	0.514
rickysdad44	0.512
frank_drebin	0.512
brickster44	0.512
trd3	0.511
NebHusker	0.511
greenies	0.511
thehuseman	0.509
ledfoot	0.509
paulives	0.506
dodgebob	0.505
cubbies84	0.505
gigrant	0.505
hacker7	0.505
slightner	0.505
ejstockman	0.504
beauchamp	0.501
rufus4ever	0.501
scottharra	0.500
hurst47	0.500
garmansouth	0.499
dlchow	0.493
thejuice6	0.489
spikeboots	0.481

Third Place teams
.

Owner	3rd
-------------------------	-----------
justinlee_24	0.527
batandball	0.523
jbohrman	0.522
barracuda3	0.519
DoctorKz	0.516
kyleb63	0.515
bigmc	0.515
rbow923	0.514
fooolishfool	0.511
cstrohmier	0.511
toddcommish	0.510
Jtpsops	0.510
Humdogs	0.506
calhoop	0.506
XJchessman	0.504
sford	0.502
bardin	0.502
Jdh34	0.502
Relkcirts	0.501
tigerrott	0.501
mllama54	0.500
dougpalm	0.500
doctorcc	0.500
Lazerhawks	0.498
buddhagamer	0.496
charliembg	0.495
happyhours	0.494
mick33	0.494
discodemo	0.494
rmdriskill	0.493
brianjw	0.491
nordawg	0.491
jjgreen14	0.491
npg32433	0.491
ejstockman	0.490
ozomatli	0.490
d_rock97	0.489
jetscanes	0.489
thebubbaq	0.488
ballantine	0.488
brucel	0.486
knieman	0.485
zlionsfan	0.484
Fusion27s	0.484
pedrocerrano	0.484
mildnhazy	0.484
schwarze	0.483
rickysdad44	0.483
cubbies84	0.483
darthmetool	0.481
redcped	0.481
mpitt76	0.481
DarthDurron	0.481
hacker7	0.480
crystalao	0.480
Chisock	0.480
thehuseman	0.479
spoonfed	0.479
magicdreamer	0.479
jfranco77	0.478
firesalt	0.478
glowguy	0.478
fatboydad54	0.477
daddyzander	0.475
BullMoose	0.475
bighooze	0.475
ledfoot	0.475
jmissirlis	0.474
hersheybear	0.473
KOTH	0.473
NebHusker	0.472
tridentric	0.472
sjh0825	0.472
trd3	0.470
dodgebob	0.470
beauchamp	0.470
moose821	0.469
garmansouth	0.469
wink0094	0.468
greenies	0.468
redwingscup	0.467
sohio4ever	0.465
scottharra	0.464
hurst47	0.464
rufus4ever	0.463
thejuice6	0.459
markeking	0.458
midknight	0.458
brickster44	0.458
dlchow	0.457
gigrant	0.456
spikeboots	0.456
paulives	0.454
frank_drebin	0.449
newarkwilder	0.448
slightner	0.447

Fourth Place teams
.

Owner	4th
-------------------------	-----------
kyleb63	0.468
rbow923	0.465
cstrohmier	0.462
fooolishfool	0.458
bardin	0.458
batandball	0.456
DoctorKz	0.456
Humdogs	0.453
doctorcc	0.453
jbohrman	0.452
calhoop	0.452
discodemo	0.452
brianjw	0.449
brucel	0.449
Jdh34	0.448
toddcommish	0.444
zlionsfan	0.444
Relkcirts	0.443
ballantine	0.443
jmissirlis	0.442
cubbies84	0.441
crystalao	0.441
bigmc	0.440
XJchessman	0.440
tigerrott	0.440
happyhours	0.440
fatboydad54	0.440
jjgreen14	0.438
sford	0.436
mllama54	0.435
buddhagamer	0.435
Jtpsops	0.432
redcped	0.431
hersheybear	0.430
ozomatli	0.428
Chisock	0.428
charliembg	0.427
firesalt	0.427
daddyzander	0.427
pedrocerrano	0.426
dodgebob	0.426
moose821	0.423
rmdriskill	0.421
d_rock97	0.420
ejstockman	0.417
gigrant	0.416
Fusion27s	0.415
hacker7	0.415
thebubbaq	0.414
thehuseman	0.414
justinlee_24	0.412
npg32433	0.411
mick33	0.410
mpitt76	0.410
NebHusker	0.410
garmansouth	0.409
magicdreamer	0.407
BullMoose	0.406
barracuda3	0.405
schwarze	0.405
scottharra	0.405
knieman	0.404
Lazerhawks	0.401
ledfoot	0.401
sjh0825	0.401
dougpalm	0.400
greenies	0.396
midknight	0.396
DarthDurron	0.394
redwingscup	0.393
spikeboots	0.393
trd3	0.390
thejuice6	0.390
hurst47	0.389
markeking	0.389
jetscanes	0.388
mildnhazy	0.384
bighooze	0.384
KOTH	0.383
wink0094	0.379
darthmetool	0.378
paulives	0.377
dlchow	0.375
newarkwilder	0.375
frank_drebin	0.374
slightner	0.374
nordawg	0.367
rickysdad44	0.365
beauchamp	0.365
brickster44	0.363
glowguy	0.358
sohio4ever	0.356
tridentric	0.343
jfranco77	0.331
spoonfed	0.327
rufus4ever	0.310

Overall
.

Owner	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
-------------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
rbow923	0.611	0.564	0.514	0.465	0.539
bigmc	0.614	0.557	0.515	0.440	0.531
batandball	0.590	0.552	0.523	0.456	0.530
doctorcc	0.606	0.546	0.500	0.453	0.526
jbohrman	0.577	0.552	0.522	0.452	0.526
Humdogs	0.596	0.543	0.506	0.453	0.525
fooolishfool	0.595	0.533	0.511	0.458	0.524
toddcommish	0.598	0.535	0.510	0.444	0.522
dougpalm	0.631	0.553	0.500	0.400	0.521
kyleb63	0.569	0.531	0.515	0.468	0.521
ballantine	0.623	0.528	0.488	0.443	0.521
cstrohmier	0.586	0.521	0.511	0.462	0.520
barracuda3	0.596	0.559	0.519	0.405	0.520
justinlee_24	0.580	0.552	0.527	0.412	0.518
discodemo	0.581	0.543	0.494	0.452	0.518
DoctorKz	0.560	0.536	0.516	0.456	0.517
jmissirlis	0.604	0.541	0.474	0.442	0.515
sford	0.586	0.536	0.502	0.436	0.515
brianjw	0.596	0.521	0.491	0.449	0.515
bardin	0.564	0.530	0.502	0.458	0.514
XJchessman	0.580	0.528	0.504	0.440	0.513
Lazerhawks	0.610	0.541	0.498	0.401	0.512
buddhagamer	0.569	0.547	0.496	0.435	0.512
calhoop	0.560	0.528	0.506	0.452	0.512
ozomatli	0.600	0.528	0.490	0.428	0.512
mllama54	0.581	0.530	0.500	0.435	0.511
happyhours	0.599	0.514	0.494	0.440	0.511
brucel	0.575	0.533	0.486	0.449	0.511
Jdh34	0.564	0.530	0.502	0.448	0.511
Jtpsops	0.572	0.530	0.510	0.432	0.511
jjgreen14	0.583	0.528	0.491	0.438	0.510
Relkcirts	0.568	0.526	0.501	0.443	0.510
zlionsfan	0.583	0.519	0.484	0.444	0.507
tigerrott	0.556	0.530	0.501	0.440	0.506
mick33	0.588	0.532	0.494	0.410	0.506
mildnhazy	0.607	0.544	0.484	0.384	0.505
crystalao	0.568	0.530	0.480	0.441	0.505
d_rock97	0.588	0.522	0.489	0.420	0.505
charliembg	0.565	0.530	0.495	0.427	0.504
daddyzander	0.594	0.521	0.475	0.427	0.504
schwarze	0.595	0.533	0.483	0.405	0.504
rmdriskill	0.580	0.519	0.493	0.421	0.503
Fusion27s	0.579	0.533	0.484	0.415	0.503
pedrocerrano	0.573	0.528	0.484	0.426	0.503
fatboydad54	0.560	0.531	0.477	0.440	0.502
redcped	0.573	0.520	0.481	0.431	0.501
thebubbaq	0.574	0.528	0.488	0.414	0.501
hersheybear	0.572	0.528	0.473	0.430	0.501
redwingscup	0.595	0.547	0.467	0.393	0.500
nordawg	0.596	0.547	0.491	0.367	0.500
Chisock	0.565	0.526	0.480	0.428	0.500
npg32433	0.578	0.517	0.491	0.411	0.499
cubbies84	0.569	0.505	0.483	0.441	0.499
moose821	0.577	0.523	0.469	0.423	0.498
jetscanes	0.577	0.537	0.489	0.388	0.498
firesalt	0.565	0.520	0.478	0.427	0.498
dodgebob	0.588	0.505	0.470	0.426	0.497
magicdreamer	0.567	0.532	0.479	0.407	0.496
mpitt76	0.567	0.526	0.481	0.410	0.496
knieman	0.574	0.520	0.485	0.404	0.496
BullMoose	0.574	0.522	0.475	0.406	0.494
thehuseman	0.573	0.509	0.479	0.414	0.494
hacker7	0.572	0.505	0.480	0.415	0.493
trd3	0.599	0.511	0.470	0.390	0.493
NebHusker	0.577	0.511	0.472	0.410	0.492
glowguy	0.600	0.530	0.478	0.358	0.491
darthmetool	0.584	0.521	0.481	0.378	0.491
gigrant	0.588	0.505	0.456	0.416	0.491
ejstockman	0.551	0.504	0.490	0.417	0.490
markeking	0.586	0.527	0.458	0.389	0.490
bighooze	0.574	0.523	0.475	0.384	0.489
KOTH	0.569	0.531	0.473	0.383	0.489
DarthDurron	0.565	0.515	0.481	0.394	0.489
sjh0825	0.554	0.525	0.472	0.401	0.488
midknight	0.568	0.526	0.458	0.396	0.487
rickysdad44	0.579	0.512	0.483	0.365	0.485
scottharra	0.570	0.500	0.464	0.405	0.485
sohio4ever	0.586	0.531	0.465	0.356	0.485
jfranco77	0.599	0.527	0.478	0.331	0.484
ledfoot	0.549	0.509	0.475	0.401	0.484
wink0094	0.567	0.521	0.468	0.379	0.484
garmansouth	0.546	0.499	0.469	0.409	0.481
paulives	0.585	0.506	0.454	0.377	0.481
beauchamp	0.581	0.501	0.470	0.365	0.480
greenies	0.542	0.511	0.468	0.396	0.479
thejuice6	0.578	0.489	0.459	0.390	0.479
hurst47	0.563	0.500	0.464	0.389	0.479
newarkwilder	0.565	0.516	0.448	0.375	0.476
tridentric	0.564	0.521	0.472	0.343	0.475
dlchow	0.569	0.493	0.457	0.375	0.473
spoonfed	0.569	0.515	0.479	0.327	0.473
frank_drebin	0.554	0.512	0.449	0.374	0.473
spikeboots	0.559	0.481	0.456	0.393	0.472
slightner	0.559	0.505	0.447	0.374	0.471
brickster44	0.542	0.512	0.458	0.363	0.469
rufus4ever	0.580	0.501	0.463	0.310	0.464
Average	0.579	0.525	0.484	0.412	0.500

My number in the table of 2nd place teams seems wrong. I don't have the exact numbers from 135 games, but I have 2 second places around .600 and 4 around .500.

It would be wild to have second place on average be at 96 wins.

Adjusting for your own winning%, this table shows the average winning% of your divisional opponents. This isn't a perfect measure because it includes opponents' divisional games vs your team (which adds bias), but it's more descriptive than the last table.
.

Owner	Total	Own	Opp
-------------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------
fooolishfool	0.524	0.514	0.528
Humdogs	0.525	0.516	0.528
sohio4ever	0.485	0.356	0.528
bigmc	0.531	0.549	0.525
batandball	0.530	0.546	0.525
brucel	0.511	0.477	0.523
kyleb63	0.521	0.516	0.522
jbohrman	0.526	0.536	0.522
happyhours	0.511	0.480	0.522
moose821	0.498	0.430	0.521
spoonfed	0.473	0.327	0.521
cstrohmier	0.520	0.519	0.521
Lazerhawks	0.512	0.493	0.519
tridentric	0.475	0.343	0.519
rbow923	0.539	0.599	0.519
hersheybear	0.501	0.447	0.519
darthmetool	0.491	0.409	0.519
DoctorKz	0.517	0.517	0.517
nordawg	0.500	0.451	0.517
toddcommish	0.522	0.541	0.515
bardin	0.514	0.514	0.514
npg32433	0.499	0.457	0.514
dodgebob	0.497	0.449	0.513
rufus4ever	0.464	0.315	0.513
ballantine	0.521	0.544	0.513
XJchessman	0.513	0.517	0.512
daddyzander	0.504	0.486	0.510
thebubbaq	0.501	0.473	0.510
d_rock97	0.505	0.491	0.509
justinlee_24	0.518	0.546	0.509
sford	0.515	0.535	0.509
fatboydad54	0.502	0.481	0.509
jjgreen14	0.510	0.515	0.509
zlionsfan	0.507	0.504	0.509
calhoop	0.512	0.522	0.508
gigrant	0.491	0.443	0.507
midknight	0.487	0.431	0.506
discodemo	0.518	0.554	0.505
barracuda3	0.520	0.565	0.505
mllama54	0.511	0.536	0.503
crystalao	0.505	0.510	0.503
doctorcc	0.526	0.596	0.503
sjh0825	0.488	0.443	0.503
dougpalm	0.521	0.578	0.502
Jtpsops	0.511	0.538	0.502
BullMoose	0.494	0.473	0.502
Relkcirts	0.510	0.535	0.501
thehuseman	0.494	0.470	0.501
redcped	0.501	0.501	0.501
tigerrott	0.506	0.523	0.501
firesalt	0.498	0.488	0.501
hacker7	0.493	0.469	0.501
cubbies84	0.499	0.495	0.501
mick33	0.506	0.525	0.500
pedrocerrano	0.503	0.512	0.500
buddhagamer	0.512	0.549	0.499
Jdh34	0.511	0.547	0.499
jmissirlis	0.515	0.567	0.498
charliembg	0.504	0.526	0.497
glowguy	0.491	0.474	0.497
KOTH	0.489	0.465	0.497
trd3	0.493	0.480	0.497
rmdriskill	0.503	0.523	0.496
rickysdad44	0.485	0.451	0.496
slightner	0.471	0.396	0.496
jetscanes	0.498	0.515	0.492
Chisock	0.500	0.525	0.492
knieman	0.496	0.507	0.492
ozomatli	0.512	0.574	0.491
hurst47	0.479	0.444	0.491
Fusion27s	0.503	0.541	0.490
scottharra	0.485	0.470	0.490
brianjw	0.515	0.596	0.487
mpitt76	0.496	0.523	0.487
spikeboots	0.472	0.430	0.486
ejstockman	0.490	0.502	0.486
paulives	0.481	0.464	0.486
garmansouth	0.481	0.465	0.486
wink0094	0.484	0.484	0.484
magicdreamer	0.496	0.540	0.482
markeking	0.490	0.517	0.481
brickster44	0.469	0.433	0.481
DarthDurron	0.489	0.514	0.481
NebHusker	0.492	0.528	0.480
greenies	0.479	0.479	0.479
mildnhazy	0.505	0.581	0.479
thejuice6	0.479	0.481	0.478
redwingscup	0.500	0.569	0.477
schwarze	0.504	0.585	0.477
dlchow	0.473	0.467	0.476
newarkwilder	0.476	0.485	0.473
bighooze	0.489	0.538	0.473
ledfoot	0.484	0.520	0.472
beauchamp	0.480	0.546	0.458
jfranco77	0.484	0.570	0.455
frank_drebin	0.473	0.526	0.455

Posted by brianjw on 9/28/2017 4:23:00 PM (view original):
My number in the table of 2nd place teams seems wrong. I don't have the exact numbers from 135 games, but I have 2 second places around .600 and 4 around .500.

It would be wild to have second place on average be at 96 wins.

Brian,

Check again... I think you posted this before I re-posted a revised (fixed) table.

"If you have a really good record but got stuck with a really strong team in your division, you could still make the playoffs as a wildcard. But if you are in divisions with two really strong teams, then you are screwed. Anyway, the rankings are in the tables below."

dougpalm and I are currently fighting for a WC behind rbow in the XBH league. Though unlikely, it's possible one of us could miss the playoffs with 100 wins. We're currently at 86 and 85 wins respectively with 19 to go.

Has anyone made it into Round 2 with 4 sub .500 teams? Nebhusker is knocking on the door...

That looks right. Cool data!

This is a cray hard division...
.

Central	W-L	PCT	GB	L10	STRK	M	Home	Away	Live	GPL	Owner	Rating
Doppelgangers	91-53	0.632	-	8-2	L1	15	44-26	47-27	0-0	0	rbow923	205056
.Polo Polo	87-57	0.604	4	6-4	W5	-	38-36	49-21	0-0	0	dougpalm	209138
Triple Your Pleasure	85-59	0.590	6	4-6	L1	-	40-30	45-29	0-0	0	Jtpsops	-13520
"Doubling" Nomar Tears	74-70	0.514	17	3-7	W1	-	35-39	39-31	0-0	0	sjh0825	36381

East	W-L	PCT	GB	Division	1-Run Games	Extra Inning	RS	RA	Exp. Pct.	Owner	LIVE
$140M XJ's Triple Tycoons	74-70	0.514	-	18-12	19-21	6-8	768	705	0.541	XJchessman
Double Barreled	74-70	0.514	-	13-17	21-22	4-6	682	591	0.566	DoctorKz
Double Duece	73-71	0.507	1	15-15	20-20	6-3	728	741	0.491	midknight
Tripping Billies	72-72	0.500	2	14-16	22-11	2-3	718	690	0.519	ejstockman