Posted by tecwrg on 8/18/2017 2:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 8/18/2017 1:40:00 PM (view original):
But again, you assume the hitter always has a choice. Do you think if a big hitter walks in a key situation, he's thinking about run probability? Could it just be that he didn't get a pitch to hit, so rather than swing at crap, he decided the next guy up might get a better one to hit?

Your stance a) reads a lot into things and b) assumes that every walk is a borderline pitch that the hitter could've driven in a run with.

Nope, I'm not thinking or assuming that at all.

Let's take the simplest example. A decent hitter is ahead in the count 3-0. The sabrmetrics approach says "take" because with a 3-0 count, it's great to get a walk. The "old school" approach says that's a hitter's count, and unless the pitcher is giving up on the AB, he's going to either groove one for an "automatic strike" or try to hit the corner with a hittable pitch.

The sabermetric approach is not take. The sabermetric approach is that a walk is much, much better than an out.

Posted by tecwrg on 8/18/2017 9:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 8/18/2017 9:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by wylie715 on 8/18/2017 7:14:00 PM (view original):
its amazing how you know what's in my mind. Nobody ever said everytime Edgar walked it was on a borderline pitch and he should have swung at it, or at least I never said that. All I said is there were times, if I was his manager, I would have preferred he try to get a hit instead of taking a walk. Of course I am not and never will be a major league manager, so what the hell do I know?

It's not necessarily directed at you specifically. There are certain individuals who continue to bring up the "Edgar hurt his team by not putting the ball in play" as if he just constantly chose to watch pitches in key game situations.

And, as I've previously pointed out, these pathetic trolls don't apply that standard to other good hitters who drew a high amount of walks. Apparently one of the best hitters of all time in Ted Williams, even with his .344 career batting average, saw fit to let some Ball 4's go by, considering he led the league in walks 8 times (more often than he led the league in BA).

It's retarded to insinuate a good hitter should always be swinging the bat.

You keep channeling your inner BL with posts like this, as you keep insisting that absolutes are being argued when, in fact, they're not.

Nobody is saying "always". If the bases are empty, there's nothing wrong with drawing a walk ("a walk's as good as a hit"). Likewise, especially in the ninth inning if you're down a couple of runs, when you're down to your last out (or two or three), base runners are vital. If you're down to your last out and you're down 3 with a runner on second, take the walk. Getting the potential tying run to the plate has more value in terms of risk/reward than putting the ball in play attempting to drive in what could be a meaningless run (i.e. meaningless, if you don't get at least two more).

In other words, it's situational. The mindset of "walks are always preferable" shouldn't be the absolute that the sabrmetric crowd thinks it should be.

Those are just a handful of the exceptions. There are more.

But in general, as a rule, you want you best hitters actually, you know, "hitting". If there's a runner on second base, and you have a good hitter at the plate, let's say somebody of EM's caliber, then I want him swinging at hittable pitches rather that trying to work a walk.

What makes you think Martinez wasn't a good situational hitter?

Posted by bad_luck on 8/19/2017 2:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 8/18/2017 2:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 8/18/2017 1:40:00 PM (view original):
But again, you assume the hitter always has a choice. Do you think if a big hitter walks in a key situation, he's thinking about run probability? Could it just be that he didn't get a pitch to hit, so rather than swing at crap, he decided the next guy up might get a better one to hit?

Your stance a) reads a lot into things and b) assumes that every walk is a borderline pitch that the hitter could've driven in a run with.

Nope, I'm not thinking or assuming that at all.

Let's take the simplest example. A decent hitter is ahead in the count 3-0. The sabrmetrics approach says "take" because with a 3-0 count, it's great to get a walk. The "old school" approach says that's a hitter's count, and unless the pitcher is giving up on the AB, he's going to either groove one for an "automatic strike" or try to hit the corner with a hittable pitch.

The sabermetric approach is not take. The sabermetric approach is that a walk is much, much better than an out.

Do you walk by swinging at good pitches on a 3-0 count?

Posted by tecwrg on 8/19/2017 3:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 8/19/2017 2:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 8/18/2017 2:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 8/18/2017 1:40:00 PM (view original):
But again, you assume the hitter always has a choice. Do you think if a big hitter walks in a key situation, he's thinking about run probability? Could it just be that he didn't get a pitch to hit, so rather than swing at crap, he decided the next guy up might get a better one to hit?

Your stance a) reads a lot into things and b) assumes that every walk is a borderline pitch that the hitter could've driven in a run with.

Nope, I'm not thinking or assuming that at all.

Let's take the simplest example. A decent hitter is ahead in the count 3-0. The sabrmetrics approach says "take" because with a 3-0 count, it's great to get a walk. The "old school" approach says that's a hitter's count, and unless the pitcher is giving up on the AB, he's going to either groove one for an "automatic strike" or try to hit the corner with a hittable pitch.

The sabermetric approach is not take. The sabermetric approach is that a walk is much, much better than an out.

Do you walk by swinging at good pitches on a 3-0 count?

Is a good pitch to hit going to be called a ball? Probably not. Is letting good pitches go the only way to walk? Obviously not.

But sometimes hitters take good pitches on 3-0, right? And if they do, why?

Posted by tecwrg on 8/19/2017 3:27:00 PM (view original):
But sometimes hitters take good pitches on 3-0, right? And if they do, why?

Well, when I played, at a 3-0 or 3-1 count, I looked for a very specific pitch in a very specific location. If it was anything but that specific pitch in that location, I didn't swing, even if it was a strike. I'm assuming other hitters do the same thing.

as tec said, it is situational. If the score is 2 - 2, 2 outs, men on 1st and 3rd in the bottom of the 9th and Edgar is up, I'd much rather he swing at a hittable pitch than try to draw a walk. Unless it was Griffey Jr hitting behind him, the next batter was not as good a hitter as Edgar, and the odds are better EM gets a hit than anyone else.
If the score is 3 -0 in the bottom of the 9th, 2 outs and 1 man on, by all means walk. we need the baserunners.

BL doesn't like to talk about situations. He'll always take an EM walk no matter who is up next, whether it's Junior or Mario Mendoza, because that's what his charts say is best.

WAR, ************!!!

Posted by wylie715 on 8/19/2017 7:54:00 PM (view original):
as tec said, it is situational. If the score is 2 - 2, 2 outs, men on 1st and 3rd in the bottom of the 9th and Edgar is up, I'd much rather he swing at a hittable pitch than try to draw a walk. Unless it was Griffey Jr hitting behind him, the next batter was not as good a hitter as Edgar, and the odds are better EM gets a hit than anyone else.
If the score is 3 -0 in the bottom of the 9th, 2 outs and 1 man on, by all means walk. we need the baserunners.

What makes you think he didn't swing in those situations?

Sorry I was away. Did anyone step on their own dick while I was gone?

Well, BL was talking about when he played and somehow equated it to how MLB players approach AB. Seemed kind of dumb. I bat 2nd on my softball team and I take a lot of pitches because the guy behind me is a better hitter. Also, with 2 outs, I only take singles because, if I leave firstbase open, they'll walk the guy. Not sure how any of that translates to MLB.

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/21/2017 8:36:00 AM (view original):
Well, BL was talking about when he played and somehow equated it to how MLB players approach AB. Seemed kind of dumb. I bat 2nd on my softball team and I take a lot of pitches because the guy behind me is a better hitter. Also, with 2 outs, I only take singles because, if I leave firstbase open, they'll walk the guy. Not sure how any of that translates to MLB.

At least I was playing the same sport.

What makes you think Edgar didn't swing the bat in need-to-swing situations?

So you think your 35+ baseball league full of former HS players somehow equates to MLB?

That's funny. Really funny.

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/21/2017 9:36:00 AM (view original):
So you think your 35+ baseball league full of former HS players somehow equates to MLB?

That's funny. Really funny.

I was talking about college.