yes, the object of baseball is to get on base and score runs. Say you have men on 1st and 3nd with one out and a .300 hitter with good power up. If he walks you have bases loaded and 1 out. not a bad situation, but no runs have scored. Would it be better for him to swing at a borderline pitch rather than take a walk? If he hits the balls, there are many good things that can happen and score at least 1 run...an error, a sac fly, a hit. If he walks, while not bad, no runs will score.

Posted by The Taint on 8/15/2017 3:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/15/2017 12:18:00 PM (view original):
My experience has been that if you go out with some guys and come home at midnight, wives tend to be asleep. So you can go pass out, or if you're not ready for that, you can watch some TV or screw around on the internet. May not be in the right mental state for some serious reading at that point....

That's pretty close to reality, though Mrs. Taint usually goes out with Mr. Taint, but at 5'1" and 110 pounds, usually comes home a wee bit drunker than Mr. Taint.

I check my Uber receipt, rate my driver and then put Mrs. Taint to bed. Might there be some midnight shenanigans? Perhaps, but Mr. and Mrs. Taint have been married a long time and that's not always the case.

As the AM cycle ran about 2 hours before (Mr. Taint doesn't check his phone when he's out with the Mrs.), Mr. Taint usually checks his games and then goes to see what dumb **** has been posted in the several hours that passed while he was out having a good time. He then usually adds his own dumb ****. Being drunk, sometimes it's dumber than his normal dumb ****.


If Mrs. Taint isn't with Mr. Taint, then the rules are different. Mr. Taint goes right to use the backup computer in the guest room, without bothering Mrs. Taint. It's a long standing rule in the house. Don't bother Mrs. Taint when inebriated and Mrs. Taint doesn't complain about just how inebriated Mr. Taint is. As Mr. Taint doesn't pay for drinks in his town, this can be considerably *********.

Happy wife is a happy life.

So I read this while eating lunch with my wife and said "Mrs. TAINT!" And laughed uproariously. She asked me what I meant. I said never mind. She insisted. So I just had and uncomfortable discussion about taints.

Posted by sjpoker on 8/17/2017 1:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by The Taint on 8/15/2017 3:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/15/2017 12:18:00 PM (view original):
My experience has been that if you go out with some guys and come home at midnight, wives tend to be asleep. So you can go pass out, or if you're not ready for that, you can watch some TV or screw around on the internet. May not be in the right mental state for some serious reading at that point....

That's pretty close to reality, though Mrs. Taint usually goes out with Mr. Taint, but at 5'1" and 110 pounds, usually comes home a wee bit drunker than Mr. Taint.

I check my Uber receipt, rate my driver and then put Mrs. Taint to bed. Might there be some midnight shenanigans? Perhaps, but Mr. and Mrs. Taint have been married a long time and that's not always the case.

As the AM cycle ran about 2 hours before (Mr. Taint doesn't check his phone when he's out with the Mrs.), Mr. Taint usually checks his games and then goes to see what dumb **** has been posted in the several hours that passed while he was out having a good time. He then usually adds his own dumb ****. Being drunk, sometimes it's dumber than his normal dumb ****.


If Mrs. Taint isn't with Mr. Taint, then the rules are different. Mr. Taint goes right to use the backup computer in the guest room, without bothering Mrs. Taint. It's a long standing rule in the house. Don't bother Mrs. Taint when inebriated and Mrs. Taint doesn't complain about just how inebriated Mr. Taint is. As Mr. Taint doesn't pay for drinks in his town, this can be considerably *********.

Happy wife is a happy life.

So I read this while eating lunch with my wife and said "Mrs. TAINT!" And laughed uproariously. She asked me what I meant. I said never mind. She insisted. So I just had and uncomfortable discussion about taints.

Does...does your wife not know...what a taint is?

Also, why would that conversation be uncomfortable?

Posted by wylie715 on 8/17/2017 12:59:00 PM (view original):
yes, the object of baseball is to get on base and score runs. Say you have men on 1st and 3nd with one out and a .300 hitter with good power up. If he walks you have bases loaded and 1 out. not a bad situation, but no runs have scored. Would it be better for him to swing at a borderline pitch rather than take a walk? If he hits the balls, there are many good things that can happen and score at least 1 run...an error, a sac fly, a hit. If he walks, while not bad, no runs will score.

Assuming you aren't in a walk-off situation, the non-out is preferable to the out in that situation, even if the out delivers a run.

how is possibly not scoring at all preferable to scoring at least one run? Isn't the aim in baseball to score the most runs possible?

Posted by wylie715 on 8/17/2017 1:32:00 PM (view original):
how is possibly not scoring at all preferable to scoring at least one run? Isn't the aim in baseball to score the most runs possible?

You answered your own question. The goal is to score as many as possible. Not just one.

Looking at the starting situation, 1st/3rd, 1 out, the non-walk-off preferred outcome in order:

HR - 3 runs - 0 br/1 out
XBH - 2 runs - 1 br/1 out
XBH - 1 run - 2 br/1 out
H - 1 run - 2 br/1 out
H - 0 run - 3 br/1 out
BB - 0 run - 3br/1 out
OIP - 1 run - 1 br/2 out
OIP - 0 run - 2 br/2 out
OIP - 0 run - 3 out

If you're in a walk off situation, you flip flop the BB with the first OIP.

Posted by wylie715 on 8/17/2017 1:32:00 PM (view original):
how is possibly not scoring at all preferable to scoring at least one run? Isn't the aim in baseball to score the most runs possible?

Historically, in situations with 1 out and runners on first and third the team will score 1.17 runs. If you hit a sac fly (or a fielder's choice) and wind up with 2 outs and a runner on first, you score 1 run and expect to score an average of 0.23 more runs, so you improved your situation by about 0.06 runs. A decent result, just slightly above the average outcome. If you get a sac hit and wind up with a runner on 2nd and 2 out, you get your run and expect 0.33 more. Now you've improved your expected runs by .16. If you walk, no runs score, but with 1 out and the bases loaded you expect to score on average 1.57 runs. That's an improvement of 0.36 runs, or 0.2 runs better than the groundout and 0.3 runs better than the sac fly. Unless you really need that first run - as in, as BL says, a walkoff situation, or maybe even if you need 1 to gain a lead or even the score in the late innings - the walk is the best of these 3 scenarios.

I should note here that this is not some sabrmetric mumbo jumbo. Those expected run values are based on historical data from 1984 to 1994. It's also worth pointing out that expected run values increase proportionally with offense. So when Edgar played, when there was more run scoring, the expected run values go up. That means you're giving up a little bit more than these expected run values estimates by taking an out for a run. During Edgar's prime it may have been about .05-.1 more runs more costly to sacrifice vs. walking than the older historical data suggests.

Nerd.

1 ACTUAL run is always better than 1.4 expected runs.

^^what he said^^

Posted by wylie715 on 8/17/2017 12:59:00 PM (view original):
yes, the object of baseball is to get on base and score runs. Say you have men on 1st and 3nd with one out and a .300 hitter with good power up. If he walks you have bases loaded and 1 out. not a bad situation, but no runs have scored. Would it be better for him to swing at a borderline pitch rather than take a walk? If he hits the balls, there are many good things that can happen and score at least 1 run...an error, a sac fly, a hit. If he walks, while not bad, no runs will score.

Why are you assuming it's a borderline pitch? If it's runners on the corners, 1 out and a 3-1 count and the pitch is 6 inches outside, should Edgar swing just so he doesn't selfishly end up walking and not driving in a run? Edgar was a good hitter, so it's not a far-fetched assumption to think pitchers were content to take the bat out of his hands.

Unless you can point out all the times Edgar walked on a hittable pitch with a runner in scoring position, your point is moot.

I can't. Can you confirm Edgar never took a borderline pitch with a runner in scoring position? Didn't think so. As far as I'm concerned the argument isn't specifically about Edgar. I'm just saying there are some situations I'd rather the player swung the bat instead of taking a walk. There are other variables as well. who is up next? what is the score? what inning is it?

Posted by wylie715 on 8/17/2017 6:37:00 PM (view original):
I can't. Can you confirm Edgar never took a borderline pitch with a runner in scoring position? Didn't think so. As far as I'm concerned the argument isn't specifically about Edgar. I'm just saying there are some situations I'd rather the player swung the bat instead of taking a walk. There are other variables as well. who is up next? what is the score? what inning is it?

Sure, but the reality is walks are a good thing. The idea that Edgar is a lesser hitter because he got on base is completely stupid.

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/17/2017 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Nerd.

1 ACTUAL run is always better than 1.4 expected runs.

Only if you're really, really bad at math. Or have a very, very tiny sample size.

I would love to play poker with you.

Posted by bad_luck on 8/17/2017 1:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by sjpoker on 8/17/2017 1:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by The Taint on 8/15/2017 3:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/15/2017 12:18:00 PM (view original):
My experience has been that if you go out with some guys and come home at midnight, wives tend to be asleep. So you can go pass out, or if you're not ready for that, you can watch some TV or screw around on the internet. May not be in the right mental state for some serious reading at that point....

That's pretty close to reality, though Mrs. Taint usually goes out with Mr. Taint, but at 5'1" and 110 pounds, usually comes home a wee bit drunker than Mr. Taint.

I check my Uber receipt, rate my driver and then put Mrs. Taint to bed. Might there be some midnight shenanigans? Perhaps, but Mr. and Mrs. Taint have been married a long time and that's not always the case.

As the AM cycle ran about 2 hours before (Mr. Taint doesn't check his phone when he's out with the Mrs.), Mr. Taint usually checks his games and then goes to see what dumb **** has been posted in the several hours that passed while he was out having a good time. He then usually adds his own dumb ****. Being drunk, sometimes it's dumber than his normal dumb ****.


If Mrs. Taint isn't with Mr. Taint, then the rules are different. Mr. Taint goes right to use the backup computer in the guest room, without bothering Mrs. Taint. It's a long standing rule in the house. Don't bother Mrs. Taint when inebriated and Mrs. Taint doesn't complain about just how inebriated Mr. Taint is. As Mr. Taint doesn't pay for drinks in his town, this can be considerably *********.

Happy wife is a happy life.

So I read this while eating lunch with my wife and said "Mrs. TAINT!" And laughed uproariously. She asked me what I meant. I said never mind. She insisted. So I just had and uncomfortable discussion about taints.

Does...does your wife not know...what a taint is?

Also, why would that conversation be uncomfortable?

She didn't know the slang. But yes she understands anatomy.

They say the same dumb thing about Joey Votto. Only Yankees fans wouldn't understand