Hitting Into Double Plays Topic

See this is why I asked... (and regrets to MikeT if we're going down a commonly tread path here...)

So pjfoster... you're basically saying it only has an effect b/c high GBFB pitchers result in more double plays, which means less batters faced? Therefore the low HRA is merely due to less batters?

I can see the logic behind that (assuming the decision tree is still valid). The problem I'm having is that when i look at results (as MikeT says), the distribution of HRA doesn't appear to fall in a narrow-ish range (which seems to be what you are proposing). Rather the range appears to be almost double or higher. I'm seeing 5-10 HRA per 100 innings for high GBFB (80+) and 15-25 HRA per 100 innings for those with lower ratings (accounting for rating differences, ballparks, etc). I'm not finding a "similar rate", even if i account for the difference in "batter volume". There are so many factors at play, i'm sure its throwing me off the scent... and i'm sure i messed up the analysis as well. Regardless, i appreciate everyone's thoughts and insights.



9/5/2017 6:24 PM
No, it's a good question. When one individual is stating something as fact, and you don't see the result they're expecting, you should get clarification.

HRA9 only accounts for homers per 27 outs. But, if you use HRA to batters faced, it's still the same result. Low GB/FB pitchers give up more homers in both situations. And, yes, ballpark and effectiveness play a part.
9/5/2017 6:29 PM
Yeah, I'm not seeing that the decision tree is accurate.
9/5/2017 6:37 PM
This post has a rating of , which is below the default threshold.
The convoluted way you're going about it takes NOTHING into account but the raw number. I've ran dozens, if not hundreds, of formulas because it's damn near impossible to get two identical pitchers pitching in identical circumstances. So, when I get a 433(via my formula) and compare to a 428, I'll get similar results in WHIP/ERA. In those formulas, GB/FB count. So, almost every time, to get two similar pitchers, the more effective pitcher in all other categories will have a lower GB/FB. All pitching categories are weighted. I have formulas for every ballpark I've played in and different formulas for 2, 3 and 4 pitch pitchers. GB/FB is NOT to overriding reason pitchers give up homers(effectiveness is). But, again, it's a factor.
9/6/2017 1:07 PM
I have a clarification question on what Mike wrote. How do you mean lower GB/FB? In the extended stats, anything under 1.0 would mean more flyballs than ground balls, so if there is a correlation between lower and effectiveness, it would point to the flyball pitchers being more effective. Likewise, the lower the rating in the GB/FB category on the ratings page, the more flyballs a pitcher is likely to induce. The FAQ says that a rating of 0 would be a pure flyball pitcher. So again, lower would yield more flyballs, so the effect you are seeing is tying more flyballs to more effectivenss. Maybe it is just the way that it is worded that is confusing me.
9/7/2017 11:25 AM
I see. When I'm saying GB/FB, I'm talking about rating. I won't give away my formulas, I've done a ton of work on them, but assuming non-weighted numbers, this is what I mean.

Con 80/80
VR 80/70
VL 80/70
VEL 80/80
P1 80/80
P2 75/75
P3 70/70
P4 65/65

As a general rule, the 1st number pitcher will be more effective simply based on splits. But, if 2nd number pitcher has a GB/FB like this, GB/FB 50/70, they're like to produce similar WHIP/ERA. P1 will give up more homers, P2 will get more DP.

Again, I used round, non-weighted numbers. No way GB/FB is nearly as important as control/VR/etc/etc. VL/VR are not the same value. But, if both pitchers come out at 660, similar WHIP/ERA will be the result.

9/7/2017 11:46 AM
Thanks for the clarification Mike.
9/7/2017 12:05 PM
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Hitting Into Double Plays Topic

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