What impacts the number of double plays a team hits into? Obviously the number of times a runner is on first with less than two outs, team speed, but there must be more. I was hitting into a lot of DPs so I increased my and run to very aggressive. Instead of grounding into less DPs I started hitting into DPs at an approximate 80% clip. I left it that way for a while to make sure it wasn't a blip. It continued until I lowered the hit and run setting. I was still hitting into a lot of DPs; however they did slow down.

I would think logically that it's a combination of poor baserunning/speed and high ground ball rate. I checked my team with poor runners, it doesn't fare too badly in GiDPs because they hit a lot of fly balls.

I've ment to ask this before foster and I forgot, based off of your information of the sim based off of plate appearance and not per pitch does that mean pitcher velocity means nothing because it was going to be an out anyways?

Balls in play can move runners, while strikeouts do not. This is more important for relievers than starters, but velocity does have (small) value.

Posted by saintonan on 8/21/2017 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Balls in play can move runners, while strikeouts do not. This is more important for relievers than starters, but velocity does have (small) value.

Outs on balls in play can also result in double plays, while strikeouts almost never do, so that may balance advancing runners.

I don't know if velocity has any value, but I know that it's too small to be picked up by my regressions.

Posted by pjfoster13 on 8/21/2017 1:00:00 PM (view original):
team speed and team power.

For power:
-when batter gets a hit, power acts as XBH hit modifier (HR/hit; also when combined with speed relates to 3B/hit and 2B/hit)
-when batter makes an out, contact acts as a paired comparison for strikeout vs out-in-play, and if the outcome is in play then power acts as the hitter's input for out type (along with push/pull to determine L/R) as part of the paired comparison with pitcher's GBFB (you can reference player stats for pitcher GB/FB as well as hitter GB/FB to observe direct correlation)

For speed:
-when batter gets a hit, speed combines with power as an XBH modifier for 3B and 2B
-when batter makes an out in play, speed is a paired comparison with infielder AS combo to determine double play vs fielder's choice

to my understanding- the logic managing the path to first base is speed only, and BR IQ becomes involved after a runner reaches base (logic for stealing 2nd/3rd/home, as well as going 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home on a single, or 1st to home on a double)

hitters with contact > 50, power < 50, and speed < 50 are going to be the GIDP trouble-makers

pjfoster -

Follow up question... your section under "for power" suggests that GB/FB has nothing to do with HR against, but rather is merely a proxy for "what type of out was made" (i.e. groundout to short vs flyout to center). Is this what you propose? (I recognize from older posts your comments may be derivative of a dev chat or similar).

Which means that all else being equal (pitcher ratings, ballparks, batters faced, etc)... over a large sample size, two pitchers with identical ratings except one has 0 GB/FB and the other has 100GB/FB ... these two would give up the same number of HRs. That seems... odd.

(Note: I'm certain I missed something really stupid/obvious in here... apologies in advance)

Which means that all else being equal (pitcher ratings, ballparks, batters faced, etc)... over a large sample size, two pitchers with identical ratings except one has 0 GB/FB and the other has 100 GB/FB ... these two would give up the same number of HRs. That seems... odd.

Not exactly. Gb/fb does affect "total batters faced" in the sense that GB pitchers end up facing (slightly) fewer batters, that's simply a mathematical given. So if those two pitchers have exactly identical ratings for control/splits/p1-p5 then the pitcher with 0 gb/fb will give up a higher volume of home runs because of more BF overall, so that's an important distinction. But yes they will theoretically give up home runs at the same rate.

Also, when it comes to HR-against, pitchers are a bit at the mercy of the opposing hitters, because the historical average shows that hitters are ~60% responsible for HR/hit and the pitchers only ~40

I don't think that is correct, PJ. After looking at stats of pitchers in my leagues, the low GB/FB guys definitely give up more HR's.

Posted by strikeout26 on 9/5/2017 1:55:00 PM (view original):
I don't think that is correct, PJ. After looking at stats of pitchers in my leagues, the low GB/FB guys definitely give up more HR's.

Wrong, zero correlation. Go back and look at your leagues and review splits (OAV) along with average-pitch (roughly ISO power driven by HR-per-hit). You'll see HR rates driven by splits & pitches, not gb-fb

Sigh. I know better but.......every time I look at HRA, it's a low GB/FB number. And by low, I mean low 60s or below. 2 things happen.
1. High HRA9 are definitely lower GB/FB
2. They can still be good pitchers

I think everyone knows bad pitchers give up more homers. They give up more hits. But good pitchers with low GB/FB still give up more homers.

I think everyone knows bad pitchers give up more homers. They give up more hits. But good pitchers with low GB/FB still give up more homers.

but it has nothing to do with GBFB itself. They're at completely different places on the decision tree. GBFB is an out modifier that only is taken into account after AB = out. HR is on the opposite side of the tree after AB = hit.

If two pitchers each give up HR at the same rate of let's say 1 HR per 10 outs, the guy who faces 100 batters is going to give up 10 HR and the guy who faces 110 batters is going to give up 11 HR, and you're going to make an argument that GBFB = more homers, when in reality 11/110 is the same as 10/100... the denominators are different because GBFB = more Batters Faced. More BF = more total HR. HR-rate is its own thing, and 60% weighted towards hitter (aka an element of "luck" variance for pitchers). The other 40% correlates to hit rate (splits) and ISO power (average pitch) and ballpark effects. It has nothing to do with the GBFB attribute itself, GBFB is NOT a slugging modifer in any way whatsoever.

Go back and look, it's the same across the player pool in every league

I'm not reading all that because we've been thru this.

You have theory, I see actual results. What you think should happen, doesn't happen. It's the same in EVERY WORLD.