Season 135 Media Guides Topic

Posted by genuvar on 9/9/2017 3:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gt_deuce on 9/9/2017 12:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/9/2017 12:04:00 AM (view original):
No way I finish 3-10.....not sure how you came up w that, but....
Well, first I calculated your real record. Then, I subtracted six wins because... why the Hell not?
Can you do that for me? I'm so used to being projected 6 wins I dont know what the hell I'm going to do with 11.
Stop exceeding your talent. :)
9/9/2017 12:06 PM
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/9/2017 8:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gt_deuce on 9/9/2017 12:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/9/2017 12:04:00 AM (view original):
No way I finish 3-10.....not sure how you came up w that, but....
Well, first I calculated your real record. Then, I subtracted six wins because... why the Hell not?
Oh, ok. I like the scientific aspect of your approach...well done!
I'd have to look at a few things to see why you came out that way. If I get ome time this weekend, I'll check it out.
9/9/2017 12:08 PM
Posted by harriswb3 on 9/9/2017 11:27:00 AM (view original):
GT, you are quickly becoming another "key cog" in the wheel of this game. Bob with his GUESS Reports, Yatzr with his tools, and now you with these Media guides.....a nice addition.
Thanks. I try to give the people what they want.
9/9/2017 12:08 PM
In the midst of going all George and Martha on this thread earlier, I neglected to say something.
Thanks, GT. The guides are appreciated.
9/9/2017 3:37 PM
Posted by columbusbuck on 9/9/2017 3:37:00 PM (view original):
In the midst of going all George and Martha on this thread earlier, I neglected to say something.
Thanks, GT. The guides are appreciated.
It's truly my pleasure. And, FWIW, I hope you don't take a break. You're a good coach and the game needs to keep good coaches.
9/9/2017 5:53 PM
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/9/2017 8:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gt_deuce on 9/9/2017 12:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/9/2017 12:04:00 AM (view original):
No way I finish 3-10.....not sure how you came up w that, but....
Well, first I calculated your real record. Then, I subtracted six wins because... why the Hell not?
Oh, ok. I like the scientific aspect of your approach...well done!
By the way, here's is *specifically* how I have you at 3-10 (so far, so good, btw):

W/Fresno State
L/Colorado
W/Southern Methodist
W/Virginia Tech
L/Georgia
L/Rutgers
L/Syracuse
L/Temple
L/South Florida
L/Marquette
L/Louisville
L/Cincinnati
L/DePaul
9/12/2017 1:06 PM
Looks like your algorithm needs tweaking...
9/13/2017 2:58 PM
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/13/2017 2:59:00 PM (view original):
Looks like your algorithm needs tweaking...
Why? Because you beat UGA in OT (which is basically a coin-flip) creating my first incorrect prediction for your season? Nah.

Over the course of an entire season of games for all 120 D-IA teams, I'm historically around 83% correct projections. That's 5 out of every 6 games that my algorithm gets right for all 820 or so games played. (The success rate is higher for just human-human or human-sim games; those damn sim-sim games are so wildly erratic) I'll take that every time and I doubt even the most astute observer could best that mark.

Even if you exceed my 3-10 projection by a wide margin, that will not form the basis for necessary change. I'm looking on the macro scale at my success (or not), so micro inaccuracies are of very little concern to me. But let's wait until the end of the season before we even decide just how wrong my algorithm was about Colorado State.

And if you wildly deviate from my projection AND there's something that I can learn from that, you can believe I will incorporate that into my projections. I'm constantly looking at how I can improve this thing. What's funny is that sometimes my projections are self-defeating on small scales. I've heard direct feedback from multiple coaches who've gotten a chip on their shoulders when I didn't rate or project them high enough, so they went on a coaching rampage and "broke" all the assumptions that underlie my algorithm for them/their team. If so, good for you!
9/13/2017 3:29 PM (edited)
Don't pay attention to what you see behind the curtain!

just giving you a hard time. Thanks for the work you put in!
9/13/2017 3:44 PM
Posted by chainsaw4 on 9/13/2017 3:44:00 PM (view original):
Don't pay attention to what you see behind the curtain!

just giving you a hard time. Thanks for the work you put in!
GL this season. (Seriously) Remind me if you do exceed expectation by more than a game or two. I'll see if I can learn anything.
9/13/2017 4:14 PM
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