Does this chart make sense?? This is from the Smith world assuming the #1 guy is 100% leaving and the last guy on the board is1%. Not sure how to handle "graduating" players.

Rank Team Grade
100% 1 Charles Lauzon Jr. C 6'8" 215 Penn State rogelio 973 Likely going 1
99% 2 Andrew Sisneros Jr. C 7'0" 230 UCLA skinzfan36 935 Likely going 1
98% 3 Robert Eddy Jr. SF 6'4" 214 Utah pdanao 969 Likely going 1
97% 4 Aaron Francis Jr. SF 6'4" 195 Florida State drichar138 951 Likely going 1
96% 6 Gary Hendricks Jr. PG 6'2" 195 Iowa State Clone77 909 Likely going 1
95% 8 Robert Schrader So. SG 6'2" 197 Pittsburgh stockplayer 930 Likely going 1
94% 9 Ronald Tucker So. SF 6'11" 225 Kentucky cimmy426 923 Likely going 1
93% 10 Christopher Hudson Jr. SF 6'8" 218 North Carolina cpkung 903 Likely going 1
92% 12 Jude Lerma Jr. PG 6'4" 195 Florida State drichar138 909 Likely going 1
91% 13 Raymond Moll Jr. SF 6'2" 185 Kansas State drob321 875 Likely going 1
90% 14 Roberto Costa So. SF 6'5" 201 UCLA skinzfan36 927 Likely going 1
89% 16 Winfred Davis So. PF 6'4" 196 Florida State drichar138 910 Likely going 1
88% 18 Doyle Marshall Jr. SF 6'5" 213 Providence starrider19 958 Likely going 1
87% 20 William Harrison Jr. PF 6'7" 212 Kentucky cimmy426 832 Likely going 1
86% 22 Kevin Tabor Jr. PG 6'1" 189 Penn State rogelio 927 Likely going 1
85% 24 Jason Dall Jr. PF 6'8" 212 Wisconsin mullycj 852 Likely going 1
84% 5 Wilbur Barbee Sr. SF 6'4" 206 Alabama jeffdrayer 972 Graduating 2
83% 11 Louie Nelson Sr. PG 6'4" 202 North Carolina cpkung 889 Graduating 2
82% 15 Jamie Williams Sr. PG 5'11" 167 Pittsburgh stockplayer 885 Graduating 2
81% 17 Michael Smith Sr. SG 6'4" 189 Boston College theword2 900 Graduating 2
80% 19 Mike Peters Sr. PG 5'11" 180 Texas manonde01 865 Graduating 2
79% 23 Richard Dudley Sr. PG 6'2" 198 Florida highcountry 891 Graduating 2
78% 25 Gary Weitzel Sr. SF 6'1" 180 Kentucky cimmy426 917 Graduating 2
77% 26 Leon Honaker Sr. SF 6'4" 197 Centenary kirby1mi 917 Graduating 2
76% 27 Joseph Delcid Sr/5 PG 5'11" 155 Michigan State gregdoc6 886 Graduating 2
75% 28 Glenn Stevenson Sr. SG 6'5" 191 Wisconsin mullycj 887 Graduating 2
74% 31 Robert Geer Sr. PG 5'10" 161 Gonzaga 912 Graduating 2
73% 34 Michael Martina Sr. SF 6'6" 203 North Carolina cpkung 920 Graduating 2
72% 40 Ronnie Zediker Sr/5 SG 6'4" 181 Northwestern summerteeth 891 Graduating 2
71% 41 Richard Lemke Sr. C 7'0" 246 Texas manonde01 901 Graduating 2
70% 44 Marty Moen Sr. PG 5'8" 151 Hawaii oldresorter 831 Graduating 2
69% 47 Robert Ferguson Sr. PF 6'8" 236 Cincinnati 925 Graduating 2
68% 51 Michael Quattlebaum Sr. PG 6'2" 193 Arizona bathtubhippo 851 Graduating 2
67% 52 Tracy Shepherd Sr. C 6'11" 257 North Carolina cpkung 912 Graduating 2
66% 59 John Childress Sr. PG 5'11" 169 Utah pdanao 811 Graduating 2
65% 68 William Miller Sr. PF 6'11" 213 Florida State drichar138 813 Graduating 2
64% 70 Timothy Blevins Sr. PG 5'11" 165 Temple doogan 799 Graduating 2
63% 73 John Stabler Sr. PF 6'11" 239 Georgia panapanthers 893 Graduating 2
62% 75 John Sayer Sr. PF 6'7" 211 Oregon State waynedrayer 864 Graduating 2
61% 77 Donald Risinger Sr. SG 5'11" 172 UConn chapelhillne 881 Graduating 2
60% 78 Phillip Coble Sr. PF 6'10" 228 Cal State Northridge shoe3 847 Graduating 2
59% 79 Frank Thompson Sr. SF 6'11" 243 Air Force standupbob 899 Graduating 2
58% 80 Darius Menke Sr. PG 6'4" 192 Rutgers alebear 815 Graduating 2
57% 81 James Hunt Sr. PG 6'1" 187 Arizona bathtubhippo 851 Graduating 2
56% 82 William Gardner Sr. PF 6'10" 237 Northwestern summerteeth 844 Graduating 2
55% 87 Anthony Riley Sr. C 6'10" 250 Xavier asillygoose 830 Graduating 2
54% 88 Gary Adamson Sr. SF 6'4" 190 Notre Dame boskie 886 Graduating 2
53% 96 Fred Gaither Sr. SF 6'6" 211 Western Michigan wmugoat 880 Graduating 2
52% 97 Andre Conti Sr. PG 6'4" 184 Arizona bathtubhippo 774 Graduating 2
51% 99 Jack Bolton Sr/5 SG 6'5" 187 Southern Mississippi tarvolon 857 Graduating 2
50% 7 Clarence Tuma Sr. C 6'9" 214 Oklahoma toknowpepsi 876 On the fence 3
49% 21 Jacques Braswell So. SG 6'3" 186 Alabama jeffdrayer 970 On the fence 3
48% 29 Donald Roepke Jr. SG 5'11" 170 Oregon State waynedrayer 902 On the fence 3
47% 30 Jing-Quo Chiang Jr. PF 6'9" 225 Pittsburgh stockplayer 880 On the fence 3
46% 32 David Jones Jr. PG 6'2" 188 Alabama jeffdrayer 903 On the fence 3
45% 33 Marvin Houchin Jr. SF 6'3" 198 Kentucky cimmy426 871 On the fence 3
44% 36 Joel Denson Jr. SG 6'2" 184 New Mexico jbasnight 909 On the fence 3
43% 37 John Crockett Jr. SG 6'8" 210 Purdue mcbellows 958 On the fence 3
42% 39 Nelson Garner Jr. SG 6'1" 193 Wisconsin mullycj 869 On the fence 3
41% 45 Nicholas Holliday Jr. SF 6'6" 210 Boston College theword2 911 On the fence 3
40% 49 Lawrence Matson Jr. SG 6'2" 187 Providence starrider19 852 On the fence 3
39% 50 Jason Rainey Jr. C 6'7" 211 New Mexico jbasnight 853 On the fence 3
38% 53 Eugene Dorsey Jr. PG 6'2" 168 Oakland davidckirby 864 On the fence 3
37% 55 John Crook Jr. PG 6'6" 190 UConn chapelhillne 856 On the fence 3
36% 56 Alberto Russo Jr. PG 6'0" 191 Arizona bathtubhippo 827 On the fence 3
35% 57 Todd Harrington Jr. C 6'7" 230 Tennessee cjok1051 831 On the fence 3
34% 61 Jack Williams Jr. SF 6'5" 203 Arkansas willmes 904 On the fence 3
33% 62 Eddie Roquemore Jr. SF 6'3" 203 Alabama jeffdrayer 812 On the fence 3
32% 64 James Bacon Jr. SF 6'3" 195 Utah pdanao 907 On the fence 3
31% 65 John Nance Jr. PG 6'0" 192 Purdue mcbellows 855 On the fence 3
30% 67 Gail Tolbert Jr. SG 6'1" 178 NC State gigrant 902 On the fence 3
29% 69 Howard Holland Jr. PF 6'10" 227 Michigan State gregdoc6 824 On the fence 3
28% 74 Timothy Klein Sr. PG 5'11" 178 Tennessee cjok1051 903 On the fence 3
27% 85 Timothy Williamson Jr. SF 6'5" 207 Cal State Northridge 831 On the fence 3
26% 86 Edward Davidson Jr. SG 6'5" 193 Southern Cal una_hoops 859 On the fence 3
25% 89 Paul Piercy Jr. PG 6'0" 180 Texas A&M pjeleson 791 On the fence 3
24% 91 Don Stapleton Jr. SG 6'1" 182 Kentucky cimmy426 806 On the fence 3
23% 92 Michael Follett Sr. C 6'10" 209 Loyola (MD) kimball 842 On the fence 3
22% 93 Desmond Revilla Jr. PF 6'7" 214 Saint Louis palyak 852 On the fence 3
21% 95 Robert Reed Jr. SG 5'9" 174 UCLA skinzfan36 796 On the fence 3
20% 100 Philip Timmons Jr. SG 6'1" 185 Wisconsin mullycj 881 On the fence 3
19% 35 Jose Torrez So. PG 6'0" 184 Louisiana Tech rr914 910 Likely staying 4
18% 38 Chuck Thompson So. PG 6'1" 194 Kentucky cimmy426 864 Likely staying 4
17% 42 Jacob Westbrooks So. PF 6'10" 206 Texas A&M pjeleson 845 Likely staying 4
16% 43 Paul Davenport So. PF 6'10" 230 Penn State rogelio 860 Likely staying 4
15% 46 Michael Bundy So. PG 6'1" 177 Arizona bathtubhippo 815 Likely staying 4
14% 48 Joseph Hansen So. PG 5'10" 160 UCLA skinzfan36 806 Likely staying 4
13% 58 Xi-Wang Tang So. SF 6'5" 209 Wisconsin mullycj 845 Likely staying 4
12% 60 Ronald Smith So. C 6'8" 211 Oakland davidckirby 783 Likely staying 4
11% 66 Gregory Holt So. C 6'10" 223 Kentucky cimmy426 846 Likely staying 4
10% 71 Carl Durham So. PG 6'2" 182 Boston College theword2 797 Likely staying 4
9% 72 Harold Robinson So. SF 6'0" 184 Oklahoma toknowpepsi 878 Likely staying 4
8% 76 Morgan Gatson So. PF 6'7" 227 Xavier asillygoose 851 Likely staying 4
7% 84 Larry Mooney So. SG 6'0" 193 Kentucky cimmy426 843 Likely staying 4
6% 98 Craig Young So. C 6'10" 229 Alabama jeffdrayer 810 Likely staying 4
5% 54 John Zinner Fr. PG 5'10" 160 Wisconsin mullycj 766 Staying 5
4% 63 Michael Blanford Fr. PF 6'9" 234 North Carolina cpkung 799 Staying 5
3% 83 William King Fr. PG 6'0" 190 Miami (FL) awhoosier 767 Staying 5
2% 90 Richard Boulanger Fr. PF 6'10" 239 Penn State rogelio 832 Staying 5
1% 94 Vaughn Lounsbury Fr. C 6'11" 245 UCLA skinzfan36 838 Staying 5
10/14/2017 3:06 PM
Uh, graduating players are 100% leaving?
10/14/2017 3:21 PM
OK, I was just being a jerk. I assumed you were looking to complain about something. Maybe you're trying to figure something out.

Here's what I would do:
Separate graduating players. By position. You know they're leaving.
Then compare the underclassmen on the big board.
Then develop some sort of "Chance of leaving" based on the comparison and BB ranking.
10/14/2017 3:27 PM
IOW, #41 Lemke is the #1 graduating C. I'd say any C "better" than him is gone. 100%
10/14/2017 3:29 PM
Its going to vary among classes.

If a freshmen is ranked 7th he won't be 93% chance of leaving he will be 0%.

If the 30th ranked player is a Soph he will be listed as likely staying, that makes me think there is at least a 51% chance he will be staying not 75% chance he will be going.
10/14/2017 9:06 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/14/2017 3:27:00 PM (view original):
OK, I was just being a jerk. I assumed you were looking to complain about something. Maybe you're trying to figure something out.

Here's what I would do:
Separate graduating players. By position. You know they're leaving.
Then compare the underclassmen on the big board.
Then develop some sort of "Chance of leaving" based on the comparison and BB ranking.
That's what I've already done.

But I done based on year and spot on the big board. Now I can remove graduating players altogether if it confuses people but I think the other %s would stay the same.

The only piece I have not done yet is a secondary sort by position. Didn't want to get too complicated yet.

This is just a 1st draft of the formulas.
What I don't like at 1st glance is the on the fence kids start at 50% and go down to 20%. I think their mean should be 50%.
10/14/2017 9:37 PM (edited)
OK, I was just looking at C in order to simplify.

52 Sheppard SR
50 Rainey JR

I'm not sure where that falls within the "range" of 41 Lemke but it seems like Rainey has a pretty good chance of leaving as the #4 C on the BB.

I might have missed something but I think Rainey is the 4.
10/14/2017 9:45 PM
IOW, Lauzon and Sisneros are gone. Lemke, as a SR, is gone. Then Rainey is the 4th C on the BB with Shepard(5), SR, also gone. I'd think there's a much higher chance than 39% that Rainey will declare.
10/14/2017 9:49 PM
You also have to include freaking AA and team postseason. It's honestly tough. I have a rough method in my head I use. Sitemail me if you want it.
10/14/2017 10:32 PM
Postseason means next to nothing
10/14/2017 11:19 PM

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