Posted by trizzo31 on 10/15/2017 5:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/15/2017 3:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by trizzo31 on 10/15/2017 10:30:00 AM (view original):
I have been accustomed to running 10-11 men squads at Clemson. My thinking at the onset of recruiting was, if I sign one of my two main targets I am happy. Both would be gravy.
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/Preferences.aspx?rid=4140092

I had two very good preferences and one good. I knew that I was offering Brundidge minutes and a guaranteed start which would make the playing time preference very good as well. That totaled 3 very good and one good. All of the recruit's other categories had no preference. Pitt might have had very good for success, but everything else should have been even. So, after 20 HVs and 900+ APs, I only have a 33% chance of winning? I didn't think that there was that great of a difference between an A- and a B+ prestige. And if prestige matters that much why did it not help gain a much larger chance of winning against a C- prestige Florida team or Division II team?

Honestly this does seem a little weird to me too.

I'm assuming you sent the HVs AFTER the promises, right?

I do think the promises coming from D2/D3 are overpowered when compared to D1.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/History.aspx?rid=4140092

This is the recruiting history. I offered a start during the third cycle. The promised minutes came after some of the home visits.

I can't view the history like that. You need to take a screenshot and share the image instead.

But okay so some of the HVs didn't get the benefit of the extra Very Good preference. That definitely hurt your odds a bit.

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/15/2017 4:22:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually viewing a whole list of A-/B+ teams in Phelan, but most of them seem to be stuck there.

A B+ prestige team goes all in after a 5 start recruit. If they do this for 4 consecutive seasons, odds are, assuming it's 50/50 that they'll end up with 2 elite players. But what about the other 8-10 players? I would think it would be the more sensible option for a B+ school to recruit 2-3 4 star players where they wouldn't be as contested for those recruits, while distributing your resources evenly.

Also, pkoopman to reply to another point. If a B+ team is giving a start and minutes to a 5 star recruit, more than likely an A+ prestige team will do the same.

The number of stars doesn’t really matter. What matters is how valuable other coaches will find him. I’ve had dogfights for no star players, and gotten 4 Star players with virtually no contest. The whole point here is that it’s very possible to both challenge for elite talent, and build a team that can compete without winning every battle. The key, as zorzii says, is AP. But where he gets it wrong is insisting that to challenge higher prestige teams you must overwhelm with APs. That’s a way to do it, but it isn’t the only way.

It’s hard to say what another team will promise. Promising a start and 25 minutes is a pretty big investment, and can have some negative consequences on the immediate future that some coaches aren’t going to want to deal with. The stronger the team, the more promised minutes to a freshman can hurt.

Posted by trizzo31 on 10/15/2017 5:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/15/2017 3:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by trizzo31 on 10/15/2017 10:30:00 AM (view original):
I have been accustomed to running 10-11 men squads at Clemson. My thinking at the onset of recruiting was, if I sign one of my two main targets I am happy. Both would be gravy.
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/Preferences.aspx?rid=4140092

I had two very good preferences and one good. I knew that I was offering Brundidge minutes and a guaranteed start which would make the playing time preference very good as well. That totaled 3 very good and one good. All of the recruit's other categories had no preference. Pitt might have had very good for success, but everything else should have been even. So, after 20 HVs and 900+ APs, I only have a 33% chance of winning? I didn't think that there was that great of a difference between an A- and a B+ prestige. And if prestige matters that much why did it not help gain a much larger chance of winning against a C- prestige Florida team or Division II team?

Honestly this does seem a little weird to me too.

I'm assuming you sent the HVs AFTER the promises, right?

I do think the promises coming from D2/D3 are overpowered when compared to D1.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/History.aspx?rid=4140092

This is the recruiting history. I offered a start during the third cycle. The promised minutes came after some of the home visits.

A- to B+, you were in an intelligent fight but you bet Pittsburgh did more than you somehow cause there is not much diff in prestige.

Posted by Benis on 10/15/2017 5:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by trizzo31 on 10/15/2017 5:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/15/2017 3:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by trizzo31 on 10/15/2017 10:30:00 AM (view original):
I have been accustomed to running 10-11 men squads at Clemson. My thinking at the onset of recruiting was, if I sign one of my two main targets I am happy. Both would be gravy.
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/Preferences.aspx?rid=4140092

I had two very good preferences and one good. I knew that I was offering Brundidge minutes and a guaranteed start which would make the playing time preference very good as well. That totaled 3 very good and one good. All of the recruit's other categories had no preference. Pitt might have had very good for success, but everything else should have been even. So, after 20 HVs and 900+ APs, I only have a 33% chance of winning? I didn't think that there was that great of a difference between an A- and a B+ prestige. And if prestige matters that much why did it not help gain a much larger chance of winning against a C- prestige Florida team or Division II team?

Honestly this does seem a little weird to me too.

I'm assuming you sent the HVs AFTER the promises, right?

I do think the promises coming from D2/D3 are overpowered when compared to D1.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/History.aspx?rid=4140092

This is the recruiting history. I offered a start during the third cycle. The promised minutes came after some of the home visits.

I can't view the history like that. You need to take a screenshot and share the image instead.

But okay so some of the HVs didn't get the benefit of the extra Very Good preference. That definitely hurt your odds a bit.

Now that I think about it - why would you offer the start but not the minutes at the same time?

I think the other thing trizzo is probably missing here is that we don't know how many AP Pitt put into that battle. It's very possible (and if you go back and read the Big East CC in Crum they discussed this very issue just a few weeks ago) that the Pitt coach was feeding a ton of APs into this guy every cycle but just never offered anything more than a scholarship in hopes of lulling trizzo to sleep on the recruit ... that's the strategy, he wanted you to feel like you had a comfortable lead so you'd turn your attention and APs to another target. Then when he maxed out his HVs and CV and presumably offered Playing time and a start he had a tremendous AP advantage on you just rocketed past you. That recruit didn't sign until the second session ... 24 recruiting cycles after the start of recruiting. If trizzo put in 900 or so APs that's an average of about 40 per cycle. If Pitt was putting in a full 80 AP per cycle the AP differential was a 2:1 advantage for Pitt and at 60 AP per cycle the differential was 1.5:1 in favor of Pitt. Either of those would have been plenty to knock trizzo's efforts down.

Posted by possumfiend on 10/15/2017 8:07:00 PM (view original):
I think the other thing trizzo is probably missing here is that we don't know how many AP Pitt put into that battle. It's very possible (and if you go back and read the Big East CC in Crum they discussed this very issue just a few weeks ago) that the Pitt coach was feeding a ton of APs into this guy every cycle but just never offered anything more than a scholarship in hopes of lulling trizzo to sleep on the recruit ... that's the strategy, he wanted you to feel like you had a comfortable lead so you'd turn your attention and APs to another target. Then when he maxed out his HVs and CV and presumably offered Playing time and a start he had a tremendous AP advantage on you just rocketed past you. That recruit didn't sign until the second session ... 24 recruiting cycles after the start of recruiting. If trizzo put in 900 or so APs that's an average of about 40 per cycle. If Pitt was putting in a full 80 AP per cycle the AP differential was a 2:1 advantage for Pitt and at 60 AP per cycle the differential was 1.5:1 in favor of Pitt. Either of those would have been plenty to knock trizzo's efforts down.

I am thinking the same.

That sucks, but it makes sense. Thanks for providing the insight.

I think there is a mental trap at the B prestige level. You get that confidence to chase after the superstars and forget to build the rest of your team. That's where coaches get stuck.

Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 10/15/2017 10:08:00 PM (view original):
I think there is a mental trap at the B prestige level. You get that confidence to chase after the superstars and forget to build the rest of your team. That's where coaches get stuck.

Or they get ees. I was A, dropped to A-, will get back to B+... Four ees, not long ago three ees. Everytime I knock at elite team status, ees are destroying hope.

" If prestige matters so much that Pitt could destroy me, why didn't it help me against Florida or Mt. Olive?"

I can speak to the D1 vs D2 thing.. Prestige is important but only important if you have a similar amount of effort. In your case you had 3 HVs, a CV, and some other small stuff right? I am just guessing but my guess is that Mt. Olive had MUCH more. Probably 20 HV's. That's what I do at D2.

My Puerto Rico team just got smoked by a D1, B Prestige team. I had 20 HV's, start, 20 minutes an 900ish AP. Then a B prestige team swooped in dropped 20 HV's in a cycle an I went from Very High to Low. I asked him about his effort and we had similar effort except for I had 700+ more AP and a start.

Part of the D1 advantage is you have way more money but you have to use it against D2 teams to win. We can argue all day long about how it should work but what I described is how it does work.

tldr; you have to around 50% of the effort of a d2 team as D1 team to have prestige be a factor.